Struggling bad about getting Covid Vaccine

[andyguitar]

part of the reason the first SARS outbreak went away, was they successfully found and isolated sick ones.

Yeah the numbers were fairly small. Covid 19 is probably far to widespread to ever control. Avoiding it is going to be a bit tricky.

 

[TiredBill]

Yeah the numbers were fairly small. Covid 19 is probably far to widespread to ever control. Avoiding it is going to be a bit tricky.

I firmly believe we could have quashed it here in the USA this summer if we'd had 70+ vaccination rates among the eligible. That plus any natural immunity from those who got Covid ought to have conferred wide scale protection.

We had the necessary supply of first-class vaccines and the infrastructure in place to deliver them--but Covid disinformation combined with anti-mask/anti-vax efforts in some quarters have undermined public health and have enabled illness and death.

This was avoidable. Such a shame.

Bill

 

[hapl808]

This is the problem with a worldwide pandemic - it's just not that neat and easy, however much we would like it to be the case.

Sadly I'm not sure this was avoidable. It sounds good to say you 'believe' we could have defeated it this summer if we had 70% vaccination rate among eligible (like some states and countries achieved), but it's the pandemic part that makes it pretty unlikely.

Countries with much higher vaccination rates than the USA - Seychelles, UAE, Israel, Singapore, even the UK to some degree (depends on age group, etc). All saw huge Delta outbreaks. The UAE is one of the only countries in the world that has already approved pediatric use of the vaccines, but they haven't eliminated COVID.

And the vaccines are very effective, but they're far from 100% against infection. Even if they were 100%, we would need to likely get 80%-90% of the country (not the 'eligible') vaccinated to have a chance at herd immunity.

Some things are avoidable (our early response to the pandemic). Some things just suck. Like I'm not sure we'd have a perfect cure for ME/CFS if we got the attention and funding we deserved, but we'd be in a much better position with treatment and care and research and hope for a cure.

Same with the pandemic - it really didn't have to be this bad (lack of attention to treatments, terrible testing accuracy, bizarre public policies, etc), but unlikely anything practical would've stopped it as other countries with varying approaches have proven.

 

[TiredBill]

This is the problem with a worldwide pandemic - it's just not that neat and easy, however much we would like it to be the case.

Sadly I'm not sure this was avoidable. It sounds good to say you 'believe' we could have defeated it this summer if we had 70% vaccination rate among eligible (like some states and countries achieved), but it's the pandemic part that makes it pretty unlikely.

Countries with much higher vaccination rates than the USA - Seychelles, UAE, Israel, Singapore, even the UK to some degree (depends on age group, etc). All saw huge Delta outbreaks. The UAE is one of the only countries in the world that has already approved pediatric use of the vaccines, but they haven't eliminated COVID.

And the vaccines are very effective, but they're far from 100% against infection. Even if they were 100%, we would need to likely get 80%-90% of the country (not the 'eligible') vaccinated to have a chance at herd immunity.

Some things are avoidable (our early response to the pandemic). Some things just suck. Like I'm not sure we'd have a perfect cure for ME/CFS if we got the attention and funding we deserved, but we'd be in a much better position with treatment and care and research and hope for a cure.

Same with the pandemic - it really didn't have to be this bad (lack of attention to treatments, terrible testing accuracy, bizarre public policies, etc), but unlikely anything practical would've stopped it as other countries with varying approaches have proven.

The requirements of reaching herd immunity are pretty well understood by medical scientists and we did not meet the thresholds here in the USA, and that was for one reason alone--vaccine refusal in some quarters.

A vaccine need not be 100% effective to stop a pandemic. We had what we needed to stop Covid within our borders and we should be working to supply the rest of the world with vaccines to protect their populations.

Bill

 

[hapl808]

So then why did it not work in Seychelles or UAE or Israel or Spain or Denmark who reached those levels? Is herd immunity different outside of America?

The requirements for herd immunity are not as well understood as people like to think, as even measuring R0 can be challenging without good testing or accurate tracing of clusters. As far as I know, we've never reached real eradication 'herd immunity' in less than decades unless you're looking at ring vaccinations to stop small outbreaks. (And the measured R0 of Delta is around 7, so herd immunity is theorized far above 70%.)

The more people vaccinated, likely the lower number of cases and particularly deaths. (Same for influenza - if more people got flu shots, we'd have fewer cases and deaths.) But that's far from eradication herd immunity no matter how much people just want to find one group to blame for the current situation.

 

[TiredBill]

I just heard from a friend in Texas. At the beginning of this week she had 5 people in her friendship circle in the hospital with Covid. Two are now dead. A third is expected to die anytime and the other to are on ventilators.

None were vaccinated. She is bereft.

Bill

 

[TiredBill]

So then why did it not work in Seychelles or UAE or Israel or Spain or Denmark who reached those levels? Is herd immunity different outside of America?

The requirements for herd immunity are not as well understood as people like to think, as even measuring R0 can be challenging without good testing or accurate tracing of clusters. As far as I know, we've never reached real eradication 'herd immunity' in less than decades unless you're looking at ring vaccinations to stop small outbreaks. (And the measured R0 of Delta is around 7, so herd immunity is theorized far above 70%.)

The more people vaccinated, likely the lower number of cases and particularly deaths. (Same for influenza - if more people got flu shots, we'd have fewer cases and deaths.) But that's far from eradication herd immunity no matter how much people just want to find one group to blame for the current situation.

It is not a matter of "wanting to find blame," one just can not ignore reality.

Those who have refused to vaccinate have extended the pandemic and helped spread illness and death. They--and their loved ones--will pay the biggest price with mortality and illness. It is all so unnecessary.

Bill

 

[perchance dreamer]

I just heard from a friend in Texas. At the beginning of this week she had 5 people in her friendship circle in the hospital with Covid. Two are now dead. A third is expected to die anytime and the other to are on ventilators.

That is just terrible. Can I ask where in TX your friend lives?

My grand-nephew has been diagnosed with Covid. He's 5 months old. I'm hearing he's okay for now, but how frightening for his parents.

With international travel and destruction of wildlife habitats, which increases odds of animal-to-human virus transmission, I'm sure we'll always be dealing with pandemics, but we can at least get vaccinated and wear masks.

 

[TiredBill]

That is just terrible. Can I ask where in TX your friend lives?

My grand-nephew has been diagnosed with Covid. He's 5 months old. I'm hearing he's okay for now, but how frightening for his parents.

With international travel and destruction of wildlife habitats, which increases odds of animal-to-human virus transmission, I'm sure we'll always be dealing with pandemics, but we can at least get vaccinated and wear masks.

Greater Houston. She is pro-mask/pro-vaccine and each of 5 people in this group were the opposite.

So she is carrying that weird mix of emotions that include anger, frustration, and grief.

Bill

 

[andyguitar]

Same with the pandemic - it really didn't have to be this bad (lack of attention to treatments, terrible testing accuracy, bizarre public policies, etc), but unlikely anything practical would've stopped it as other countries with varying approaches have proven.

I half agree with you. Once it got into the general population the fact that so many were infected without having symptoms made the spread unstoppable. But it could have been slowed down.

 

[TiredBill]

People in our community should understand what the R0 value of 7 means in terms of contagiousness.

The value reflects the number of people on average a sick person will infect.

The first round of Covid had an R0 value of 3. Each sick person would infect 3 people. Those 3 would infect 3 people (9 in that round) and then 27 in the next. And so on.

With R0 7, you get 7 additional sick, then 49, then 343, 2401, 16,807.

Please understand what this means. Delta is a new pandemic entirely with regard to the risk of contagion. What might have worked to avoid exposure by isolating to date is unlike to work moving forward.

Quite literally, time is running out for the vaccine hesitant to act and get protection from death and hospitalization from Covid.

Bill

 

[TiredBill]

There have been some breakthrough infections in places like San Francisco, where vaccination rates are around 70% for adults, but the Covid wards are almost empty.

In contrast, in parts of the country where vaccination rates are low, people are being turned away, dying in hallways, parking structures are being turned into emergency wards. It is a disaster.

There is a way to avoid this. Please don't listen to the voices of misinformation.

Bill

 

[Woof!]

Where I am in coastal North Carolina, there are hospitals in 4 surrounding counties. Three of the four are nearly at ICU capacity, and the hospitalization rate is double what it was when COVID was peaking last year.

 

[nerd]

Those who have refused to vaccinate have extended the pandemic and helped spread illness and death.

This sounds like blame though. I don't think it's efficient to blame individuals when they are merely a manifestation of systemic issues. The main systemic issue is that medical leadership has failed to build trust in their vaccine approval process. The lack of transparency and straight forwardness has created doubts. The censoring has confirmed suspicions of undecided ones. And I think most of the people were just undecided and not necessarily against vaccination.

This was a long story of failings. It began with the failure to recognize the pandemic as a pandemic, delaying measures against the global spread, when we still had a chance to contain it.

Then, there was the recommendation against mask use, contrary to the evidence. Then, the censorship of early treatment options, not just Ivermectin, but anything that established early treatment as an intermediate to vaccinations.

Today, we know that HCQ actually worked. But only because a certain person like Trump mentioned it, this got so politicized that even Fox self-censored the topic.

It was similar with how medical leadership treated the risks and side effects of vaccines. These risks and side effects aren't general. They affect certain subgroups. These subgroups could have been identified and a recommendation could have been made that they get an alternative vaccine. There would have been a completely safe vaccine for the most people. Even for children, if dose adjusted.

But what did the public see? They saw inconsistent responses, they saw excuses.

There seems to be this notion among people in responsible positions that complete access to true information can unsettle the population, so they avoid speaking out the obvious, the elephant in the room. But this doesn't help. People aren't blind and stupid. They see the elephant, even if they don't understand it.

Compare it to the history of space flight. There was a time when there was the same culture in NASA. Don't speak about risks, it could harm the reputation of the program. It was just a matter of time until this culture failed. They learned from it and that transparency is key. Transparency builds trust.

 

[TiredBill]

This sounds like blame though. I don't think it's efficient to blame individuals when they are merely a manifestation of systemic issues. The main systemic issue is that medical leadership has failed to build trust in their vaccine approval process. The lack of transparency and straight forwardness has created doubts. The censoring has confirmed suspicions of undecided ones. And I think most of the people were just undecided and not necessarily against vaccination.

This was a long story of failings. It began with the failure to recognize the pandemic as a pandemic, delaying measures against the global spread, when we still had a chance to contain it.

Then, there was the recommendation against mask use, contrary to the evidence. Then, the censorship of early treatment options, not just Ivermectin, but anything that established early treatment as an intermediate to vaccinations.

Today, we know that HCQ actually worked. But only because a certain person like Trump mentioned it, this got so politicized that even Fox self-censored the topic.

It was similar with how medical leadership treated the risks and side effects of vaccines. These risks and side effects aren't general. They affect certain subgroups. These subgroups could have been identified and a recommendation could have been made that they get an alternative vaccine. There would have been a completely safe vaccine for the most people. Even for children, if dose adjusted.

But what did the public see? They saw inconsistent responses, they saw excuses.

There seems to be this notion among people in responsible positions that complete access to true information can unsettle the population, so they avoid speaking out the obvious, the elephant in the room. But this doesn't help. People aren't blind and stupid. They see the elephant, even if they don't understand it.

Compare it to the history of space flight. There was a time when there was the same culture in NASA. Don't speak about risks, it could harm the reputation of the program. It was just a matter of time until this culture failed. They learned from it and that transparency is key. Transparency builds trust.

Ivermectin is not effective for Covid. That has been demonstrated by results of a study released just this week. HCQ does not work either,suggesting otherwise is just not so.

Instead of promoting things that don't work, we should be making every effort to promote the use of safe and effective vaccines. Lives depend on it.

Time is running out for people who have avoided getting Covid thus far and who are not vaccinated.

I can't imagine bearing the burden of Covid of top of ME/CFS. Those who are unprotected risk hospitalization and death. That's the bottom line. There is an alternative. I hope people act in time.

Bill

 

[TiredBill]

Where I am in coastal North Carolina, there are hospitals in 4 surrounding counties. Three of the four are nearly at ICU capacity, and the hospitalization rate is double what it was when COVID was peaking last year.

I've seen maps that overlap ICU occupancy and local vaccination rates. The data is clear cut.

Those who remain unvaccinated face enormous risks of getting sick, facing hospitalization, and death.

Personally, I don't feel sanguine about how my ME/CFS self might do if I contracted Covid w/o any protection from a vaccine. Not sure I'd make it. Not sure if I'm unusual in that regard.

Bill

 

[TiredBill]

So then why did it not work in Seychelles or UAE or Israel or Spain or Denmark who reached those levels? Is herd immunity different outside of America?

Unfortunately, places like the Seychelles and UAE (and places like Chile) have mainly had access to either the Chinese made SinoPharm or SinoVax vaccines, and they are not especially effective relative to what is available in the USA.

Israel was topping 100 deaths per day at the high of the pandemic there and then cut numbers to one or two a day from late April through the end of July. There has been a rise since August with Delta with current peak of 17 deaths per day. Quite a lot less than 100 per day. Since Israel vaccinated early, they are now actively giving booster doses against Delta. Pretty smart move IMO.

We need to amp up production to share with other countries in need.

Bill

 

[hapl808]

There seems to be this notion among people in responsible positions that complete access to true information can unsettle the population, so they avoid speaking out the obvious, the elephant in the room. But this doesn't help. People aren't blind and stupid. They see the elephant, even if they don't understand it.

Very well said. And agree with everything else you wrote.

These subgroups could have been identified and a recommendation could have been made that they get an alternative vaccine. There would have been a completely safe vaccine for the most people. Even for children, if dose adjusted.

The vaccines are safe and effective for most people. However, some side effects can occur - as they can with any medical intervention from Tylenol to doxycycline. Some side effects can be serious. Obscuring that doesn't build trust, it erodes it.

Instead of promoting things that don't work, we should be making every effort to promote the use of safe and effective vaccines. Lives depend on it.

I haven't seen evidence that we're at higher risk, but we are people who sometimes get adverse effects from a visit to the store or a new supplement or a long phone call. Sometimes it can crash us for weeks or months.

I don't see why we can't message "Covid is likely worse than any potential adverse effects from the vaccine." Most would agree with that. But pretending that no one has had an adverse effect does not convince me.

I got lucky and had no after-effects but I also know that there is no guarantee that everyone's story will have the same happy ending. All you can do is cross your fingers and hope for the best, which is a truly terrifying way to have to make a life-changing decisions.

That being said I would do it all over as being potentially on a ventilator scares the shit out of me. After all is said and done I was really relieved to get vaccinated and not feel like I had to walk on pins and needles. But I understand the fear as everyone reacts differently.

One thing having this illness has taught me is that unless I'm confronted with a mountain of evidence to the contrary, I believe people when they tell me their personal experiences. I don't dismiss their personal health history as 'against dogma' and I really try to hear people's concerns.

I wish more doctors would do the same.

 

[TiredBill]

I haven't seen evidence that we're at higher risk, but we are people who sometimes get adverse effects from a visit to the store or a new supplement or a long phone call. Sometimes it can crash us for weeks or months.

I have seen no evidence of that thus far. In contrast, we know Covid kills.

I don't see why we can't message "Covid is likely worse than any potential adverse effects from the vaccine." Most would agree with that. But pretending that no one has had an adverse effect does not convince me.

Common ground. Only I'd change the wording to very "Covid is very likely to be far (far) worse than any potential adverse effects from the vaccine, and that includes the possibilities of hospitalization, developing Long Covid, or death."

Bill

 

[hapl808]

Unfortunately, places like the Seychelles and UAE (and places like Chile) have mainly had access to either the Chinese made SinoPharm or SinoVax vaccines, and they are not especially effective relative to what is available in the USA.

We need to amp up production to share with other countries in need.

Bill

UAE uses mostly Pfizer, Sinopharm (the most effective of the Chinese vaccines), and AZ. Some Sputnik as well, I think. They are also vaccinating children which almost no other country is doing.

From your comment about the Seychelles, you may have read the June NYT story that criticized their wave of new infections solely on their inferior Chinese vaccines (not on Delta). They said the USA had a 95% drop in cases because of their wonderful vaccines. When the USA numbers rose we didn't blame the vaccines, we blamed the unvaccinated. We didn't do the same with the Seychelles, showing once again the geocentric arrogance of American media.

Pandemics are complicated, and using heuristics to explain incredibly complex systems almost always runs into the mess of reality. The same happens in medicine.

Vaccines are remarkably effective, but they're not a panacea. I hope everyone here who feels they can do it is able to get vaccinated. I hope they then CONTINUE to take precautions such as masks, social distancing, good ventilation, testing, etc. As someone who gets sick easily, more mask wearing would make me happy even post-Covid.

Treatments are effective, but not as much as we'd hope. Regeneron or other MAB, antivirals, budesonide, fluvoxamine, dexamethasone. I hope we get more research and more effective treatment guidelines.

I hope we can do many things simultaneously to improve our outcomes, rather than depend on purely one intervention and then ignoring the rest.