"Facts about COVID-19": Swiss Propaganda Research Article

[pamojja]

A summary from findings of the original Swiss Propaganda Reseach article, with link to sources to check oneself if accurate:

Overview

1. According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is in the lower per mille range and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO.
2. A study in Nature Medicine comes to a similar conclusion even for the Chinese city of Wuhan. The initially significantly higher values for Wuhan were obtained because a many people with mild or no symptoms were not recorded.
3. 50% to 80% of test-positive individuals remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year old persons about 60% remain symptom-free, many more show only mild symptoms.
4. The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
5. Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 have proven to be false upon closer inspection. Many of these people either did not die from Covid19 or they in fact had serious preconditions (such as undiagnosed leukaemia).
6. Normal overall mortality in the US is about 8000 people per day, in Germany about 2600 people and in Italy about 1800 people per day. Influenza mortality in the US is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 1500 people per winter.
7. Strongly increased death rates, as in northern Italy, can be influenced by additional risk factors such as very high air pollution and microbial contamination as well as a collapse in the care of the elderly and sick due to mass panic and lockdown measures.
8. In countries such as Italy and Spain, and to some extent Great Britain and the US, a serious overload of hospitals, notably by the flu, is not unusual. In addition, up to 15% of doctors and nurses currently have to self-quarantine, even if they develop no symptoms.
9. An important distinction concerns the question of whether people die with or indeed from coronaviruses. Autopsies show that in many cases the previous illnesses were an important or decisive factor, but the official figures usually do not reflect this.
10. Thus in order to assess the danger of the disease, the key indicator is not the often mentioned number of test-positive persons and deceased, but the number of persons who actually and unexpectedly develop or die of pneumonia.
11. The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, since the number of tests also increases exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to total tests either remains constant between 5% to 25% or increases rather slowly.
12. Countries without lockdowns and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. This might call into question the effectiveness of such far-reaching measures.
13. According to leading lung specialists, invasive ventilation of Covid19 patients is often counterproductive and causes additional damage to the lungs. The invasive ventilation of Covid19 patients is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus through aerosols.
14. Contrary to original assumptions, however, the WHO determined at the end of March that there is no evidence of aerosol dispersal of the virus. A leading German virologist also found no aerosol and no smear infections in a pilot study.
15. Many clinics in Europe and the US have been lacking patients and some have had to introduce short-time work. Numerous operations and therapies were cancelled by clinics, even emergency patients sometimes stay at home out of fear of the virus.
16. Several media have been caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative pictures and videos. In general, many media outlets do not question even doubtful official statements and figures.
17. The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors. Several studies have shown that even normal corona viruses can give a false positive result. Moreover, the virus test currently in use has not been clinically validated due to time pressure.
18. Numerous internationally renowned experts from the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend a rapid natural immunisation of the general population while protecting risk groups.
19. The number of people suffering from unemployment, psychological problems and domestic violence as a result of the measures taken has exploded in the US and worldwide. Several experts believe that the measures may claim more lives than the virus itself.
20. NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the corona crisis is used for the massive and permanent expansion of global surveillance. The renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of a “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures”. Leading British virologist Professor John Oxford spoke of a “media epidemic”.

 

[pamojja]

In retrospect, now that we seem over the tide: I actually was at first very alarmed with news coming out of Wuhan already in January. China with so many known human-right violation would have never shut-down its whole economy, if not something really devastating would be happening. And almost all other countries in a deep slumber.

Even still at the 6th of March I posted at longecity:

I think it's hopeless containing the virus.

I'm the second day home from an almost 2 month vacation in South India. The situation there is bizarre, accoding to media there before I left, only 3 confirmed cases in Kerala. Now I see John Hopkins counts already 30 cases. And that in a country of 1.3 billion bordering to China with upto 480 million migrating workers! For example in a metropolis like Mumbay 106 returners from Wuhan have been in quarantine since middle of January: 104 of them turned out negative, 2 are still waiting for their test-results after 1 1/2 months! Away from the major airports no testing is done (I even would have paid for, but not available..). If in the countryside of India some ten-thousands die of pneumonia, it wouldn't be mentioned before's too late.

Therefore I wanted to get myself tested for not spreading it unneccesarily at home (as a social worker working with immunity compromised clients). Especially because on 11. Jan. I've slept for 5 hours in transit on Oman Airport in a waiting room with lots of Chinese - a middle aged couple just in 1 meter ditance coughing all the time; 3 weeks later had a severe cold for 5 days (coughing, sneezing and running nose), and now since 5 days difficulties in swallowing. And believe possibly being one of the 80% infected will slight symptoms.

However, everyone here follows the rules from the ministry of health, which permits testing only of Individuals returning from China, South Korea, Italy and Iran (allegedly for saving resources..). Nobody seems to give a shit about the lacking health-care system in most of India, and don't think it over themself.

Game over. It just will take its course.

But this post in an other thread here at PheonixRising on March 18th by Inara - after first lockdowns in the EU - really got me startling. And I did a most simple calculation to try to find out, what was really going on. And in what proportion the scary media-reports have to be seen:

I'd be very interested about your opinions about this doctor's claim:

I'd be interested in arguments that confirm or contradict his claim.

Just did a quick and rough calculation.

Total populations: https://www.laenderdaten.de/bevoelkerung/einwohner.aspx
Flu and pneumonia mortality (2017) per 100000: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/
Covid-19 mortality: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

For a fast calculation divided the yearly usual flu mortality into 4 = the 3 months this 'epidemic' exist. And compared it to the actual mortality from this alledgedly new virus:

The only epidemic till today seems to be happening in Italy. But if Italy just drew the bad luck this year, as the UK did in 2017 with 23.01 flu-deaths per 100000, then still nothing out of the ordinary. Soon we'll know.

At that time - 4 weeks ago - those 20 countries had at least tested 1000 covid positive. Only Italy at time had a somewhat unusual mortality, compared to its very low 2017 rate. 5% of countries.

9 day later on March 27th I posted a much more refined update in the same thread:

15 pages of this thread and 9 days later:

This time I ordered the table in order of the first reported covid deaths. All countries with more than 999 postive tested included. Only exception are countries with yellow background. Calculated the average death-rate per 100 000 for all these countries at 24.45. With this average the second green column in percent from average was calculated. For the whole world the average death-rate for influenza/pneumonia would actually be 41.35 per 100 000. Almost double, therefore I marked only those results which exceeds 200% from normal.

What is remarkable till now is, that all those countries with excess pneumonia deaths have it in certain regions only! (in the table only added Italy without the regions of Lombaria and Emilia Romagna as example; https://www.bing.com/covid/ does break down the number in regions for countries mostly affected.)

While the vast majority of countries, including most without rigorous lockdowns (asterix on the right with gray background, accordinging to wikipedia, are far from any epidemic.

In 9 days there were already 43 countries with more than 1000 covid positve tested. Of which the countries with abnormally high pneumonia deaths has risen to 3 (San Marino, Italy and Spain). 7% of countries

5 day later an other update on April 1st, I don't think I posted anywhere:

Already 50 countries with more than 1000 positive tested, while 7 countries with strikingly higher mortality. 14% of countries affected. A doubling in 5 days!

Its time for an update again.

 

[pamojja]

Here it is:

Already 87 countries with more than 1000 positive tested. 14 with higher mortality. 16% of countries affected. It really slowed down!

Also note - though I really down know how they so fast could update numbers - in Italy the population allegedly had grown during the last 4 weeks by 155 985.

And did you know that there are actually 2 countries in Africa (Sierra Leone and Nigeria), which already during an ordinary year have even higher pneumonia mortality, than was sadly reached in Italy by now? (source) - What a sad planet we are living on.

 

[Mary]

THIS THREAD IS BEING RE-OPENED. HOWEVER, ANYONE WHO BREACHES THE FORUM RULES WHEN POSTING IN THIS THREAD WILL BE BANNED FROM THE THREAD.

THIS SERVES AS THE FIRST AND ONLY WARNING AS THIS THREAD HAS BEEN A MAGNET FOR FORUM RULE BREACHES, INCLUDING PERSONAL ATTACKS AND POLITICAL STATEMENTS.

NUMEROUS MEMBERS HAVE ASKED FOR THIS THREAD TO BE CLOSED. IT CAN ONLY REMAIN OPEN IF MEMBERS POST WITH RESPECT FOR EACH OTHER AND FOR FORUM RULES.

 

[pamojja]

It really slowed down!

Now also visible at the European monitoring for excess mortality as sequel from week 10 (March 8th) until week 15 (April 12th):

 

[pamojja]

Flu virus are different from coronavirus, but still it's interesting to look at it, from wikipedia:

"The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much more deadly than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States,[100] the virus had mutated to a much more deadly form. October 1918 was the month with the highest fatality rate of the whole pandemic"
This flu had a different target than usual:
"The pandemic mostly killed young adults. In 1918–1919, 99% of pandemic influenza deaths in the U.S. occurred in people under 65, and nearly half of deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old."

Some suggest that lockdown/social measures played a role in the pandemic evolution:

View attachment 36857

Interesting comparison in relation to the probabilty of a second wave. Sadly the national geographic article, you linked to, only gives the counts during the first 24 weeks only. But does give the graphs of 39 affected US cities.

As I can see, only 3 cities: St. Luis, Kansas City and Denver, had a higher death rate during the second spike.

Only about half of the 39 cities displayed had a second spike worth that name at all, but of those most much milder then the first. Additionally more of those experiencing a second spike seem to have had much lower mortality during the first spike (compared with cities the highest). While those who experienced highest mortality at first, were less likely to experience a serious second.



Therefore my interpretation of this data to our times: Those places with highest mortality now: Spain, France, Italy, New York.. probably wont experience a second wave. But all other countries with really much lower mortality as is usual during the flu season now, very well might. With about a 50% chance, but still milder than now.

 

[andyguitar]

Therefore my interpretation of this data to our times: Those places with highest mortality now: Spain, France, Italy, New York.. probably wont experience a second wave

Could this be because those most at risk die in the first wave?

 

[ljimbo423]

While L.A. County reports total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, antibody study shows hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past

Los Angeles California, USA-

While Los Angeles County has reported a total of 13,816 coronavirus cases, early results from an antibody study conducted with the University of Southern California shows that hundreds of thousands more could have had COVID-19 in the past, officials announced Monday.


So far, 863 L.A. County residents have been tested between April 10 and 14 as part of the study.


The study estimates a prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the county to be 4.1%, with a range that could be as low as 2.8% and as high as 5.6%, when you factor in the reliability of the tests.


An estimated 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults at the high end may have been infected at some point before April 9 with COVID-19, suggesting that the number of total people in the county with a past or current infection is 28 to 55 times higher than the number of reported positive cases, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, L.A. County’s public health director said Monday.

 

[andyguitar]

If these figures are correct they are staggering.

 

[Hip]

suggesting that the number of total people in the county with a past or current infection is 28 to 55 times higher than the number of reported positive cases

It has always been accepted that in most countries, the number actually infected is vastly higher than the reported number cases, simply because so many people go untested.

The exception would be in the early days of the German pandemic, because German authorities went out of their way to do contact tracing, enabling then to find nearly everyone with the virus.

 

[Hip]

This article explains that the strains of coronavirus found in the US are generally milder than the more deadly strains found in Europe. The exception seems to be New York, which has the more deadly European strains.

This may explain the lower death rate found in Santa Clara County, California, which was 0.12% to 0.2%. Ref: here.

Whereas the death rate found in Gangelt, Germany was 0.37%. Ref: here.

The death rate in New York will presumably be similar to the Gangelt death rate.

Thus apart from in New York, the milder virus found in the US may allow for slightly less restrictions being placed on the populace, compared to Europe, which has a nastier virus, and thus needs more robust controlling measures.



This is important information to keep in mind when discussing how serious and how deadly the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus actually is, because the deadliness may vary country to country.

It is possible most of America (except New York) may have a virus which is not much more deadly that seasonal flu (seasonal flu has a death rate of 0.1%). Whereas Europe is being hit with a virus which, from the Gangelt data, appears around 4 times more deadly than flu.



But it's not just the death rate which is an issue: it's also the fact that a pretty large percentage of the population with coronavirus require hospitalization. I've seen figures of 5% of infected people requiring hospitalization, and a third of those will require ICUs. Most will survive, but it nevertheless puts massive strain on the hospital system, and so the system would without doubt collapse if measures were not put in place to limit the amount of people who are infected at the same time.

During regular seasonal flu, we do not have 5% of our population in hospital, so this makes coronavirus very different to flu, and much more taxing on the hospital system.

 

[ljimbo423]

If these figures are correct they are staggering.

This quote is from an article Hip posted in the post just before this post, for Santa Clara California, USA.

Until we have a better estimate of the total number of people that have been infected with covid 19, here in the states, we can't get an accurate estimate of the mortality rate or know how contagious this virus is, as it says here in the article-

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

 

[ljimbo423]

But it's not just the death rate which is an issue: it's also the fact that a pretty large percentage of the population with coronavirus require hospitalization. I've seen figures of 5% of infected people requiring hospitalization, and a third of those will require ICUs. Most will survive, but it nevertheless puts massive strain on the hospital system, and so the system would without doubt collapse if measures were not put in place to limit the amount of people who are infected at the same time.

During regular seasonal flu, we do not have 5% of our population in hospital, so this makes coronavirus very different to flu, and much more taxing on the hospital system.

I'm quite confident covid 19 is much worst than the flu. I also feel very strongly that the mandatory lock downs we have in place are crucial so we don't overload our hospitals.

Like so many other people, including the experts, at least here in the states. I'm trying to find the most accurate information on how deadly this virus is and how truly widespread the infections are and have been.

 

[Hip]

I'm quite confident covid 19 is much worst than the flu. I also feel very strongly that the mandatory lock downs we have in place are crucial so we don't overload our hospitals.

Agreed that at the moment the lockdowns are necessary.

But I think we might well avoid lockdowns entirely if we followed the Asian model of pandemic control, which involves universal use of face masks for everyone, and well-organized testing and contact tracing to quash any mini-outbreaks.

Taiwan organized face masks for everyone, and do lots of testing, and have only 6 deaths so far, and have not needed to go into lockdown, because their existing strategies have been effective. Other Asian countries like South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong are doing similarly well.

Long-term lockdown for a year will cripple our economies, and so I cannot understand why we are not following the successful strategies employed by Asia, which would likely allow us to control the virus without lockdown.

 

[roller]

it seems not everyone does see the larger picture.
most only see themselves, and the dangers that may be out there. all of a sudden, as it its said.
im wondering if this is actually selfishness.

the lockdowns dont just affect the business owners, the freelancers and the employees in your country.
it has a huge backlash globally.
the less the industrial nations produce, the less is available elsewhere.
the less we can shop (and AFFORD to shop, since money will run out), the less third world countries will produce. who is buying bangladesh-clothing?

the less europe "earns" the less they can give to poorer countries.

with the lockdowns, less productive nations run into poverty and cant expect any support from the "rich nations".

 

[roller]

right now, in europe money and assets are "burnt".
they have/had the money to (to waste).
other countries dont have.
they may be rather "day laborers", compared to the industrial nations.

its sad, to see this.

in germany, 200,000 cancer fatalities per year. yawwn... eh?

 

[ljimbo423]

Agreed that at the moment the lockdowns are necessary.

But I think we might well avoid lockdowns entirely if we followed the Asian model of pandemic control, which involves universal use of face masks for everyone, and well-organized testing and contact tracing to quash any mini-outbreaks.

Taiwan organized face masks for everyone, and do lots of testing, and have only 6 deaths so far, and have not needed to go into lockdown, because their existing strategies have been effective. Other Asian countries like South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong are doing similarly well.

This makes good sense to me and I am all for universal use of face masks with good testing and to lift the lock down.

Long-term lockdown for a year will cripple our economies, and so I cannot understand why we are not following the successful strategies employed by Asia, which would likely allow us to control the virus without lockdown.

This is one of my fears. Our government has already passed a 2.2 trillion dollar bill for economic relief from the pandemic and are talking about spending billions more.

A long term lock down doesn't seem feasible, we have to find an alternative. Masks, good testing and contact tracing seems like the best way to go.

 

[Wayne]

Our government has already passed a 2.2 trillion dollar bill for economic relief from the pandemic and are talking about spending billions more.

...talking about spending billions trillions more.

 

[ljimbo423]

...talking about spending billions trillions more.

Are they talking about spending trillions more? Last I new it was billions but that was a day or two ago.

 

[andyguitar]

Like so many other people, including the experts, at least here in the states. I'm trying to find the most accurate information on how deadly this virus is and how truly widespread the infections are and have been.

Ive been without the web for about a week so am a bit behind with the international picture as to what has been going on. But my interest now is in trying to find out where the most severely affected were when they got infected. There has been a lot of news coverage about deaths in care homes but not much about the infection rate among those who were in hospital for other reasons and got infected in hospital.