"Facts about COVID-19": Swiss Propaganda Research Article

[andyguitar]

I'm frankly terrified of the economic repercussions of our belated attempts to deal with this

The cost to the UK economy is about £2.5 billion PER DAY

 

[andyguitar]

the money currently "spent" is for life support, sort of.
nothing in return. no investment.

if they dont have it, they must print it?

The Governor of the Bank Of England has said they will not be printing money. Over here a lot of money is being spent by the Gov on paying wages to workers who are not able to work at the moment due to lockdown. What is needed now is for that money to be spent. Cash needs to circulate. We are not totally in the sh*t yet but will be if the lockdown continues much longer. I expect things to get better fairly quickly, but then I am an optimist.

 

[andyguitar]

The cost to the UK economy is about £2.5 billion PER DAY

In addition to this is about £270 billion the government will need to borrow in the next year.

 

[Hip]

That would have been a great response some three months ago. It's too lat enow, the virus is too widespread and we still don't know the extent of that ....

It's not too late at all to go the Asian route.

What may happen is that we will have yo-yo lockdowns for about a year to 18 months. Yo-yo lockdowns means lockdown will be lifted, then new coronavirus cases will quickly increase to a level where hospitals cannot cope, and so another lockdown will need to be implemented. And the cycle will repeat. The Imperial report mentions yo-yo lockdowns as a possible strategy.

But since the Asian pandemic control techniques appear more effective than lockdown, we can at any point substitute lockdown for those superior Asian techniques. It's very easy, and it's really a non-brainer, because Asian techniques do not cripple the economy, and they greatly lower the amount of death.

I say a no-brainer, but I really am astounded about the lack of brains Western leaders and their science advisors have so far shown.



By the way, the virus is far from widespread at the moment. A study in California found only 3% of the population is infected. It will only be when around 80% of the population is infected that herd immunity is created, and the pandemic will have run its course.

We can spend all that time in lockdown, and probably create a depression worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Or we can go down the Asian route, and live happily ever after!

 

[roller]

What may happen is that we will have yo-yo lockdowns for about a year to 18 months.

every lock down announcement makes people walking to the shops.
every time there are crowds as never seen before.

placing ppl on quarantine, like 2 weeks fully at home, i think its not working.
i would guess, that not many can live on their stocks (they may have not enough money to buy them in the first place), they may overeat, run out or be simply totally afraid to run out. also, food will be purchased and thrown away.

im wondering if the lockdowns are the reason for the quick and very wide spread.

 

[roller]

what they did in china ? ppl have to go out / to work in hazmat suits.
why is this not possible elsewhere?

 

[Hip]

What I wonder about is assuming our outbreaks are in fact: Mini Outbreaks.

What if: it is in fact Pandora out of the box. I don't see how we are putting it back inside that box.

People assume testing will- identify a few sick people/carriers that we can isolate. But its months- months-of spreading out.

When the pandemic is out of control, and tens of thousands of people are being newly infected every day, there is little hope of doing contact tracing and testing, as we do not have enough human resources for that.

However, once you have brought the pandemic under control using techniques like the universal wearing of face masks, the number of new infections you get each day goes right down, and so you will have sufficient resources to do contact tracing.

 

[JES]

every lock down announcement makes people walking to the shops.
every time there are crowds as never seen before.

placing ppl on quarantine, like 2 weeks fully at home, i think its not working.
i would guess, that not many can live on their stocks (they may have not enough money to buy them in the first place), they may overeat, run out or be simply totally afraid to run out. also, food will be purchased and thrown away.

im wondering if the lockdowns are the reason for the quick and very wide spread.

In USA there have been some small protests, but in other countries like Germany and Nordic countries, most countries in Asia, etc. the civil obedience rate is very high. From civil obedience perspective it would not be an issue to extend the lockdown for a couple of more months where I live, the economic issues are the bigger problem. One can always wear a mask at a densely crowded place like a bus or shop, I hope it's heading that direction once people in charge realize you don't need peer-reviewed papers to understand the benefits of even basic protective clothing.

 

[Hip]

what they did in china ?

Universal use of face masks, plus good testing and contact tracing are some of the key techniques in Asian pandemic control.

 

[YippeeKi YOW !!]

What is a NOVEL patient?

'Novel" refers to the fact that there has never been a strain of this virus like this one, so no one on the face of the earth was immune to it at the time of the first outbreak, one of the reasons it's been so difficult, up until possibly now, to develop a vaccine for it, and why it's been so deadly, aside from the fact that it's a vicious, deadly, highly opportunistic, incredibly contagious and fast-spreading virus.

The '19' in COVID-19 doesn;t mean this is the 19th outbreak of this virus, it means that the first outbreak was in 2019.

And once again, my 'Tedious Pedant' license has been renewed, much to the dismay of ..... well, practically everyone probably. There's no stopping me now ....

 

[YippeeKi YOW !!]

It also means "unusual" or "different"

No, it means the first and only of its kind, never experienced on earth before .... and again, my Tedious Pedant license is up and running. I'm terrific fun at parties .....

 

[YippeeKi YOW !!]

In addition to this is about £270 billion the government will need to borrow in the next year.

Who in God's name is going to be in a position to lend any money, let along trillions and trillions of pounds or dollars or yen or riyals ..... even oil, up until market open this AM, was selling at NEGATIVE $30.00/bbl. After market open, it rose to $1.31/bbl .....

This is how wars start ..... when leaders have no answers, like little children, they break everything in the nursery to draw attention to their demands and to force The Power to give them whatever it is they're tantrum-ing about .... ....

 

[YippeeKi YOW !!]

It's not too late at all to go the Asian route.

I couldn;t disagree more strongly .... this is not a step you take in the peaking stage of a pandemic, or anytime after the initial, more or less controllable, outbreak. It would be madness, like the calls to permit 'herd immunity' we all heard From Johnson and Trump ....

 

[Hip]

I couldn;t disagree more strongly .... this is not a step you take in the peaking stage of a pandemic, or anytime after the initial, more or less controllable, outbreak.

What are you actually disagreeing on?

Which Asian viral control strategies specifically are you saying cannot be implemented at this stage of the pandemic? And why are you saying they cannot be implemented?

Since you disagree so strongly, you must have good reasons for thinking those strategies will not work, or will be harmful.

 

[YippeeKi YOW !!]

Since you disagree so strongly, you must have good reasons for thinking those strategies will not work, or will be harmful.

I've done this dance with you before, and I've learned not to go into ..... uh, protected territory. We both have very strong opinions, and I don;t see either one of us being willing to capitulate for the sake of peace.

Dangerous ground. It's not good for either of us, and it gives the mods a headache they don;t need.

Notwithstanding, my statement stands as written: it's too late in the pandemic to suddenly revert to measures that were successful in some parts of Asia where they were undertaken earlier in the spread of the virus, before so much of the population was affected and already spreading it even further and faster than had been imagined possible.... that's that 'novel' part.

We don;t even have a accurate count, the official count here in the US (and I suspect in the UK as well) is suspected to be as much as 2, 5, 8, 10 times more (take your pick .... it changes depending on what you're reading and where you're reading it) than what's been reported. We have no idea how many asymptomatic transmitters there are, and we may never know given the snail's pace at which the most basic diagnostic tool's availability is proceeding.

As of this morning, the number of certified cases of COVID in the US was 819,000. The number of deaths, as well as they can tell, is 45,796. Both figures are rising rapidly.

So the richest, best equipped country in the world is staggering under a load of illness and death that's unprecedented, totaling more lives than those lost in the last 5 wars, combined. That's WW I, WW II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the middle east wars from 2003 to present. MORE COVID VICTIMS THAN IN EVERY WAR THIS COUNTRY HAS FOUGHT SINCE 1918 .... that's a staggering statistic.

It's very easy, and it's really a non-brainer

Those Asian measures might work after COVID has peaked and started down, in a meaningful, measureable way, in order to open up the economy, but done too early, and we could have a pandemic no top of a pandemic, and that'll be just in time for the second wave of this in the Fall, so a pandemic on top of a pandemic on top of a pandemic, which several scientists are stating will be infinitely worse than this first wave, tho I haven;t heard any explanation as to why that would be.

Yo-yo lockdowns means lockdown will be lifted, then new coronavirus cases will quickly increase to a level where hospitals cannot cope, and so another lockdown will need to be implemented. And the cycle will repeat. The Imperial report mentions yo-yo lockdowns as a possible strategy.

I can't believe that any responsible gov't has suggested that this is a viable response, even in the face of the economic catastrophe that this pandemic will inevitably trail along in its wake.

But since the Asian pandemic control techniques appear more effective than lockdown, we can at any point substitute lockdown for those superior Asian techniques. It's very easy, and it's really a non-brainer, because Asian techniques do not cripple the economy, and they greatly lower the amount of death.

Please, for God's sake, post some dates and figures relating to your statements re " ....the Asian pandemic control techniques appear more effective than lockdown ....". Which Asian countries? Certainly not India or Malaysia. When did those countries start enforcing the wearing of face masks? What was their COVID load at that time? What was their death count at that point? What is it now?

Th only Asian country I can bring to mind that's doing comparatively well under the COVID onslaught is South Korea, and that's because they started testing IMMEDIATELY, 100,000 people a day and more, and immediately isolated and treated, as best they could, those that tested positive or kept them isolated til they no longer carried the virus. This meant that even asymptomatic carriers were isolated. And then, yes, they made everyone wear masks and practice basic good-sense measures.

Again, the key here was the immediate early testing, isolating, and treating, not the wholesale wearing of masks while the virus rages on all around you.

Without massive, dedicated, determined, nationwide testing, there's no way to know what's working, which areas need extra help, which need to be completely isolated, etc. Without that testing, we're going into battle blindfolded and without guns, ammunition, or armor of any sort.. Which is pretty much where we are now in the U.S.

What are you actually disagreeing on?

Your statement that Western countries, staggering under an avalanche of COVID cases that have, for all practical purposes, drowned our hospitals, Drs, nurses, support staff, respiratory techs, and supply systems in a sea of contagion and death from which there's virtually no hope of escaping without more drastic measures than "Wear a mask and cough into your elbow".

We can spend all that time in lockdown, and probably create a depression worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

That's already pretty much a done deal at this point, given the speed with which our country is addressing the virus itself. If we're lucky, it won't last the full 11 or 12 years that the Great Depression did, and it won;t require a world war, and the production and employment that it fuels, to bail us out.

Or we can go down the Asian route, and live happily ever after!

Yes. That enforced mask wearing thing could have worked back in late January or even the first week or maybe even the first two weeks of February, but we're nearing the end of April, and NY is still awash in corpses, which have long since overflowed their mortuaries and are being stored in refrigerator trucks like frozen TV dinners, hospitals are stuffed to the rafters, including the tent hospitals set up in Central Park, Drs are exhausted and dying, as are nurses and support staff.

In NY, fully 25% (that's over 2,000 ME's) or, by now, even more, of the ambulance drivers & staff have been out with the virus for almost 2 weeks, and we have no report on how many of them have subsequently died or returned to work, or how many more may have joined them.

Universal use of face masks, plus good testing and contact tracing are some of the key techniques in Asian pandemic control.

A measure which they must have instituted early in COVID's appearance, when they had a good chance of being successful. Instituted now, they'd be a death sentence.

Please cite something more specific than "Asian" and give accompanying dates of the interventions instituted by the various govts. 'Asia' is a very, very big place.

A study in California found only 3% of the population is infected.

California's population in about 55 million. Three percent of that is 165,000, and that's just what's been uncovered and counted as of about Mar 19th. Cases are increasing at the rate of approx 220 a day, which increases by about 15% a day. The whole state is in lockdown, and Calif has been considerably less affected than NY, whose statewide population, including NYC, is 19,378,102, and whose case load and mortality rate is many times higher than California's.

California was in the forefront of states to introduce , 1) masks in all public places, and 2) a lockdown of everything but essential services, which would explain their much better, tho still serious, COVID profile.

Are you saying that the lockdown should be lifted, people should be allowed to go back to their jobs, their offices, their favorite bars and restaurants, their gyms, their nail salons, their barbers and beauticians, etc., and that masks will solve everything? Keep in mind that testing in the U.S. lags every other country in the world on a per capita basis, and that we've been informed by our govt that the Fed'l stockpile of everything from tests to essential equipment to basic protective clothing and face shields and masks " .... belongs to us [the federal gov't], not the states ....". I'm directly quoting Kushner.

However, once you have brought the pandemic under control using techniques like the universal wearing of face masks, the number of new infections you get each day goes right down, and so you will have sufficient resources to do contact tracing.

This pandemic cannot be brought under control at this point by " .... the universal wearing of face masks ....". It's waaaaay beyond that. We're struggling to stay alive, even isolated in our homes and wearing face masks and latex gloves on the rare occasions that we fearfully dash out to the pharmacy or the store for food.

To suggest otherwise seems hopefully naive.

EDITED ..... for my usual madcap typos, and for additional clarity ...

 

[nyanko_the_sane]

Hear Hear YippeeKi YOW !! U da Queen!

California was in the forefront of states to introduce , 1) masks in all public places, and 2) a lockdown of everything but essential services, which would explain their much better COVID profile.

California is pretty darn lucky to have such a great governor. I wouldn't be surprised if he is elected president some day. If it comes down to your money or your life, I would rather live and be poor, than rich and be dead.

There are a lot of poor in and around New York, so this is very much a factor in the high amount of fatalities. The rich can hide out in the Hamptons, while the poor have to work and suffer through this hell on Earth.

 

[pamojja]

An other update from the "Fact about Covid-19" article. Subsumming studies, experts and articles with less coverage in the mass-media. Please do check the given sources to check if it got it right. I'll leave the politcal update out, since I don't want to stirr this hornet-nest any further.

April 21, 2020

Medical updates

• Stanford professor of medicine John Ioannidis explains in a new one-hour interview the results of several new studies on Covid19. According to Professor Ioannidis, the lethality of Covid19 is „in the range of seasonal flu“. For people under 65 years of age, the mortality risk even in the global „hotspots“ is comparable to the daily car ride to work, while for healthy people under 65 years of age, the mortality risk is „completely negligible“. Only in New York City was the mortality risk for persons under 65 years of age comparable to a long-distance truck driver.
• Professor Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, warns in a new article that the damage caused by the lockdown could be greater than that caused by the virus. The peak of the epidemic had already been reached in most countries before the lockdown, Professor Heneghan argues.
• A new serological study in Los Angeles County found that 28 to 55 times more people had Covid19 than previously assumed (without showing significant symptoms), which reduces the danger of the disease accordingly.
• In the city of Chelsea near Boston, about one third of 200 blood donors had antibodies against the Covid19 pathogen. Half of them reported having experienced a cold symptom in the last month. In a homeless shelter near Boston, just over a third of the people tested positive, but nobody showed any symptoms.
• Scotland reports that half of the (stocked up) intensive care beds have remained empty. According to officials, the admission of new patients is „levelling off“.
• The emergency room in Bergamo’s municipal hospital was completely empty at the beginning of this week for the first time in 45 days. In the meantime, more people with other diseases than „Covid19 patients“ are being treated again.
• A report in the medical magazine Lancet comes to the conclusion that school closures to contain corona viruses have no or only a minimal effect.
• A nine-year-old French child with corona infection had contact with 172 people, but none of them were infected. This confirms earlier results that corona infection (unlike influenza) is not or hardly ever transmitted by children.
• The German emeritus microbiology professor Sucharit Bhakdi gave a new one-hour interview on Covid-19. Professor Bhakdi argues that most media have acted „completely irresponsibly“ during the Covid-19 epidemic.
• The German Initiative for Care Ethics criticises blanket bans on visits and painful intensive care treatment of nursing patients: „Even before Corona, around 900 old people in need of care died every day in German homes without being taken to hospital. In fact, palliative treatment, if at all, would be more appropriate for these patients. () According to all we know about Corona so far, there is not a single plausible reason to continue to value infection protection higher than the basic rights of citizens. Lift the inhuman visiting bans!“
• The oldest woman in the Swiss canton of St. Gallen died last week at the age of 109. She survived the „Spanish flu“ of 1918, was not corona-infected and „for her age she was doing very well“. The „corona isolation“, however, had „very much affected her“: „She faded without the daily visits of her family members.“
• The Swiss cardiologist Dr. Nils Kucher reports that in Switzerland currently about 75% of all additional deaths occur not in hospital but at home. This certainly explains the largely empty Swiss hospitals and intensive care units. It is also already known that about 50% of all additional deaths occur in nursing homes. Dr. Kucher suspects that some of these people die of sudden pulmonary embolism. This is conceivable. Nevertheless, the question arises as to what role the „lockdown“ plays in these additional deaths.
• The Italian health authority ISS warns that Covid19 patients from the Mediterranean region, who often have a genetic metabolic peculiarity called favism, should not be treated with antimalarial drugs such as chloroquine, as this can lead to death. This is a further indication that the wrong or overly aggressive medication can make the disease even worse.
• Rubicon: 120 expert opinions on Corona. Worldwide, high-ranking scientists, doctors, lawyers and other experts criticize the handling of the corona virus. (German)

Classification of the pandemic

In 2007, the US health authorities defined a five-tier classification for pandemic influenza and counter-measures. The five categories are based on the observed lethality (CFR) of the pandemic, from category 1 (<0.1%) to category 5 (>2%). According to this key, the current corona pandemic would probably be classified in category 2 (0.1% to 0.5%). For this category, only the „voluntary isolation of sick persons“ was envisaged as the main measure at the time.

In 2009, however, the WHO deleted serverity from its pandemic definition. Since then, in principle, every global wave of influenza can be declared a pandemic, as happened with the very mild „swine flu“ of 2009/2010, for which vaccines worth around 18 billion dollars were sold.

The documentary TrustWHO („Trust who?“), which deals with the dubious role of the WHO in the context of „swine flu“, was recently deleted by VIMEO.

Swiss chief physician Pietro Vernazza: Simple measures are sufficient

In his latest contribution, the Swiss chief physician of infectiology, Pietro Vernazza, uses the results of the German Robert Koch Institute and ETH Zurich to show that the Covid19 epidemic was already under control before the „lockdown“ was even introduced:

„These results are explosive: Both studies show that simple measures such as the renunciation of major events and the introduction of hygiene measures are highly effective. The population is able to implement these recommendations well and the measures can almost bring the epidemic to a halt. In any case, the measures are sufficient to protect our health system in such a way that the hospitals are not overburdened“.
Reproduction rate in Switzerland (ETH/Vernazza) Switzerland: Cumulative total mortality in the normal range

In Switzerland, cumulative total mortality in the first quarter (until April 5) was at the mean expected value and more than 1500 deaths below the upper expected value. Moreover, by the middle of April the total mortality rate was still more than 2000 deaths below the comparative value from the severe flu season of 2015 (see figure below).

Cumulative mortality compared to medium expected value 2010 to 2020 (BFS) Sweden: Epidemic ending even without lockdown

The latest figures on patients and deaths show that the epidemic is coming to an end in Sweden. In Sweden, as in most other countries, excess mortality occurred mainly in nursing homes that were not protected well enough, the chief epidemiologist explained.

Compared to other countries, the Swedish population may now benefit from higher immunity to the Covid19 virus, which could better protect them from a possible „second wave“ next winter.

It can be assumed that by the end of 2020, Covid19 will not be visible in the Swedish overall mortality. The Swedish example shows that „lockdowns“ were medically unnecessary or even counterproductive as well as socially and economically devastating.

Test-positive deaths in Sweden (FOHM/Wikipedia) Anecdotes vs. evidence

In the face of a lack of scientific evidence, some media increasingly rely on gruesome anecdotes in order to maintain fear in the population. A typical example are „healthy children“ who allegedly died of Covid19, but who later often turn out not to have died of Covid19, or who were seriously ill.

Austrian media recently reported about some divers who, six weeks after a Covid19 disease with lung involvement, still showed reduced performance and conspicuous imaging. One section speaks of „irreversible damage“, the next explains that this is „unclear and speculative“. It is not mentioned that divers should generally take a 6 to 12 month break after serious pneumonia.

Neurological effects such as the temporary loss of the sense of smell or taste are also often mentioned. Here too, it is usually not explained that this is a well-known effect of cold and flu viruses, and Covid19 is rather mild in this respect.

In other reports, possible effects on various organs such as kidneys, liver or brain are highlighted, without mentioning that many of the patients affected were already very old and had severe chronic pre-existing conditions.

More graphs and rest at site..

 

[andyguitar]

Who in God's name is going to be in a position to lend any money, let along trillions and trillions of pounds or dollars or yen or riyals ..... even oil, up until market open this AM, was selling at NEGATIVE $30.00/bbl. After market open, it rose to $1.31/bbl .....

There is plenty of money.......some big corps have piles of it stashed away offshore. The story about oil prices crashing is a wierd one. What happened was that the producers of what is known as Texas light crude ran out of storage capacity. Thats why the price went neg. Brent crude is the best indication of the oil price. Sure its down but not neg.

 

[andyguitar]

and that'll be just in time for the second wave of this in the Fall, so a pandemic on top of a pandemic on top of a pandemic, which several scientists are stating will be infinitely worse than this first wave, tho I haven;t heard any explanation as to why that would be.

Over here the reason given why a second wave might be worse is down to when it could happen. During our annual flu season. I expect thats the fear in most countries.

 

[andyguitar]

There are a lot of poor in and around New York, so this is very much a factor in the high amount of fatalities

Has spending on public health been cut in NY in recent years? In the UK health spending is pretty much the same across the nation. But poverty and overcrowding does vary a lot so I expect that will be a factor. How about inter-generational households. You know children, parents and grandparents in the same household, is it more common in NY? Its one of the explainations being considered here for the high mortality rate among black and asian patients of covid. The theory being that the elderly in such households are more likely to be in sustained contact with carriers and will be recieving a higher dose of the virus.