Coronavirus: what your country is doing, how you feel & general discussion

[nyanko_the_sane]

Are you challenging my masculinity?
Osaka mayor under fire for saying women dawdle at shops

I dawdle quite a a bit thank you very much, but I blame ME/CFS.

 

[Hufsamor]

this gets mentioned more and more...in the U.S. at least, whom is it that would be: doing all this contact tracing?

In Norway, there are developed an app for cellphones.
Everybody is encouraged to have it on their phone.
It will trace every movement, where you are, who you are in contact with. (As long as they have activated the same app)

If one of the users later are confirmed cases with corona virus, everybody *he has been in contact with the last (I think 14?) days will get a message on their phone.
"You have been exposed for corona virus....days ago. Please go into quarantine for ...days"

 

[andyguitar]

If one of the users later are confirmed cases with corona virus, everybody *he has been in contact with the last (I think 14?) days will get a message on their phone.
"You have been exposed for corona virus....days ago. Please go into quarantine for ...days"

That is probably how it will be done in the UK. But there is a problem with it. Being "Exposed to to corona virus" does not mean you have caught it. So unless people are able to be tested you could end up with millions going into quarantine unnecessarily.

 

[ZeroGravitas]

But there is a problem with it.

Yeah, that did make me wonder... I think that ideally, they'd want to throttle the sensitivity down while there's fairly widespread infection, to prevent *everyone* quarantining because someone (later infected) walked through a supermarket or park. But maybe get more sensitive if case numbers are crushed down, to keep them that way (like my friend in Singapore described to me they'd been doing).

Anyway, I'm more worried that the NHS is trying to make its own app independently of the Google/Apple APIs (which has lower battery use, etc) [BBC]. Also that Plantir might be involved (not confirmed), committing significant resources while currently working for NHSX for free [NewStatesman]. They being a shaddowy tech company started by Silicon valley's dark lord Peter Theil and incubated by US MoD, their phone apps being used to catch out undocumentent immigrants for ICE detention, etc.

 

[lagarto]

Hi from NORWAY

(I haven't read this entire thread, for lack of brainpower. But I figured I'd chime in anyway. Hope that's okay.)

Our government chose to do a PARTIAL LOCKDOWN on march 12th. I wished they had done it a bit sooner, but it did seem to catch it in time, and things are under control now and have been for a while - deaths/day and hospitalisations have been declining for a while now, and never took off to begin with (we have 207 dead so far, which is certainly not a lot compared to most places, even considering our small population).

We're now doing a CONTROLLED OPENING - kindergardens opened last week, schools opened for the youngest students this week. We seem to be doing alright, but I expect numbers will rise a bit from that.

Our ECONOMY has been hit even harder than many places, because of oil dependency, in addition to all the lost jobs and all. On the other hand, we're a rich country, and that means a bigger toolbox for stimulating the economy. People are financially safer here than most places, but it's still a massive hit for lots of people.

Oh, and POLITICS - the parties not in government all supported the partial lockdown. Everyone was all "they do what they have to do, let's just not make a stink," which is good. And saved their energy for the stimulus packages. Which was a glorious dogfight, but also some really interesting coalitions and trading.

All in all I will say we did well so far. 7/10. On the other hand, our preparedness beforehand is more like 3/7. And our parties in power voted down an emergency preparedness thing only half a year ago. Yikes.

 

[Wayne]

Regarding tracing: -- For the life of me, I don't understand how this could possibly make a difference at this time. It would make sense that in the very beginning, when there were very few cases, it could be invaluable at stopping a pandemic from taking off. But once it's taken off (as in millions upon millions being infected), and limited knowledge on asymptomatic people spreading it, how do you stop it by tracing? I'm not totally rejected some somewhat "limited" value, but I don't see how it's going to stop a pandemic.

 

[andyguitar]

Regarding tracing: -- For the life of me, I don't understand how this could possibly make a difference at this time

Beats me too. Although it might be that those who advocate it are hoping the number infected goes right down and tracing can be used to snuff out any hotspots.

 

[Rufous McKinney]

But once it's taken off (as in millions upon millions being infected), and limited knowledge on asymptomatic people spreading it, how do you stop it by tracing? I'm not totally rejected some somewhat "limited" value, but I don't see how it's going to stop a pandemic.

Personally- I think much of the reporting and discussion- is unrealistic. Testing is unreliable. Vaccination success is- not likely. Tracing- sounds nice. But yes its probably way too late for that.

 

[ZeroGravitas]

how do you stop it by tracing?

If you're able to test people quickly upon symptoms and immediately inform all their contacts you can potentially isolate the downstream cases before they are infectious. Almost as good as stopping the original spreader.

You don't need to contact trace *all* cases, just enough to help keep R0 reduced below 1 (potentially letting you relax some other meassure). One of the UK epidemiologists estimated that we were tracing about 1/3 of cases in the initial period. Reducing transmission by 1/3 is nothing to be sniffed at. Could easily make the difference between exponential growth or slow decline.

But of course test and trace is going to be more tractable with a lower number of ongoing infections. Hence why full lockdown is needed for as long as possible in UK and US. And why it was so, so disasterous not to lock down just a week earlier, when infections were doubling every ~3 days (nationally in UK). They're reducing *far* more slowly than that, now, costing us months, potentially.

Widespread automatic tracing apps might help bridge the current chasm of scale, but only if they work well (I have my doubts) and are adopted widely. South Korea has done and continues to do this, with the tests it has (that we could no doubt copy, etc). Singapore had an army of tracing personnel, too, which is something we should be building up with in terms of recruitment and training.

 

[lagarto]

Regarding tracing: -- For the life of me, I don't understand how this could possibly make a difference at this time. It would make sense that in the very beginning, when there were very few cases, it could be invaluable at stopping a pandemic from taking off. But once it's taken off (as in millions upon millions being infected), and limited knowledge on asymptomatic people spreading it, how do you stop it by tracing? I'm not totally rejected some somewhat "limited" value, but I don't see how it's going to stop a pandemic.

I think there are many more parts to this, but some are:

1) Not all areas of any given country will be equally affected. Tracing can make a big difference for areas that are less affected.
2) Once things get more under control, it can be a tool to end lockdown more safely, reducing the risk of a second wave.
3) Knowing how many people are affected and how the virus moves is crucial to making good policy choices.
4) Identifying asymptomatic carriers is something tracing can actually do, because those people get tested too, if they've been exposed.

So, not as good as a cure, but a useful tool, nonetheless, even when the pandemic has gained traction.

 

[lagarto]

You don't need to contact trace *all* cases, just enough to help keep R0 reduced below 1

This is really important, too. I found myself assuming, early on, that they'd need to catch every case for tracing to work, and thankfully that is not true.

 

[Rebeccare]

One side benefit of contact tracing, beyond its potential public health benefits, could be that it would put a lot of people to work at a time when such a high percentage of people are out of work and suffering financially. In order to do contact tracing, you do need to hire contact tracers (this article cites experts who say that that 300,000 are needed in America).

 

[Pearshaped]

For most of us who are bed- or housebound,a tracing app would make no sense at all i guess.
I must say I find this app thing is creepy.

Under a lot of pressure,Gov of Switzerland has decided to re-open schools and almost everything else already on May 11th instead of June.
At least for the people around me life will become normal again.
Sorry to hear that in the US are so many deaths.Is there still an increase or has it flattened out a little?

 

[lagarto]

For most of us who are bed- or housebound,a tracing app would make no sense at all i guess.
I must say I find this app thing is creepy.

For those of us with carers or who live with family, an app can still be very relevant. But yes, it is creepy, and I see no reason to trust that data won't be used for more than it's supposed to.

 

[Pearshaped]

I have a carer thats why I have the flu every year after she had it.Even though,she would hate the idea of an app as much as I do.
Where I live there are rumours about
compulsory (sp?) vaccination? woud be interested if thats a topic in your country too?(is that too off- topic?)

 

[andyguitar]

Where I live there are rumours about
compulsory (sp?) vaccination? woud be interested if thats a topic in your country too?(is that too off- topic?)

Not off topic @Pearshaped and it's a good question. In the UK there has been some talk about people who have had the virus getting a certificate confirming it. I doubt it will happen. Certificates can be forged. How long immunity lasts is unknown. The possibility of reinfection has not been ruled out. So a waste of time.

 

[Rufous McKinney]

So, not as good as a cure, but a useful tool, nonetheless, even when the pandemic has gained traction

but there are 350Million people in the United States (plus or minus...some number)....thats alot of tests.

 

[andyguitar]

but there are 350Million people in the United States (plus or minus...some number)....thats alot of tests.

Sure is. And how often will people be tested? Who pays for it?

 

[Wayne]

how often will people be tested? Who pays for it?

I read a Mercola article with some intriguing possible options:

Number Infected With Coronavirus Can be Detected in Wastewater

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a new and highly effective way to monitor coronavirus and other diseases by studying sewage samples to detect how many people in a given area are infected, and can even pinpoint a single infected individuals among 100 to 2 million persons.​

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Many areas do not have the means to test individuals for coronavirus and even if they do, it’s slow and cost-prohibitive. Scientists say roughly 70% of the population could be screened for coronavirus by monitoring the country's 15,014 wastewater treatment plants at a much lesser cost than individual testing.​

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Source: Science Daily April 23,2020​

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BTW, this article reminds me of my "discomfort" with so many public restrooms that lack seat covers. Seems like flushing a toilet without a seat cover would likely be worse than coughing or sneezing without covering our mouths. -- After mentioning this to a couple of different establishments--and being met with blank looks--I no longer brought up the subject. But I wouldn't mind public health officials mentioning this along with some of their other suggestions of wearing masks, etc.

 

[Rufous McKinney]

BTW, this article reminds me of my "discomfort" with so many public restrooms that lack seat covers.

And there are so many explosive toilets....which seem capable of also causing hearing damage.