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Coronavirus: what your country is doing, how you feel & general discussion

rainbowbluebells

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
nsdn said:
SPAIN MARCH 8

PRESIDENT:
gif33.gif
Click to expand...

Sorry I must have missed this post!

Similar happening here. Am I right in saying Spain went into lockdown a while after this march.. so could this Women’s day March have contributed to increase in cases?

So just this week here..

Last week up till Friday:

622EABC5-AAEB-42F3-9C8D-C6F17288C5E4.jpeg


Yesterday:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238976755022680065


Today:

25397093-FE07-4CC3-8558-7234F05B5F31.jpeg
 
I

Inara

Senior Member
Messages
455
rainbowbluebells said:
Thanks, what are the recent developments?
Click to expand...
The same that can be seen in Austria and elsewhere: closure of borders, closed bars, discos, fitness studios and everything else (a friend sent me a photo of his studio where you can see the police closing it down); sadly, not nationwide right now (my fitness studio, e.g., was still open today), but I guess this will come. Supermarkets, pharmacies, gas stations, banks etc. will remain open. No bans on going out yet, but I guess this may come at some point.

Still I don't see that people, especially the young, take this seriously. Most of my family members think this is nothing. (They don't even understand that sick people like us are at a higher risk.) I think this is, amongst others, thanks to some sort of propaganda that only people in their 80s die - in Germany, the reported death cases are all over 70, but I have reason to suspect that they lie about who dies. But this will change I think. The German virologist Kekulé writes on his blog that we're at the beginning of the exponential growth. So the following days will get interesting...
 
I

Inara

Senior Member
Messages
455
Oh, virologists in Germany said at some point that there is reason to assume this will go through the summer till winter (the virus doesn't seem to be sensitive to temperatures like influenza) and into the next year; they also think the virus won't disappear, but will behave like influenza and come every year again. It will be interesting to see in which direction the mutated virus will go: worse or less dangerous. Since a virus doesn't want to kill its host, virologists assume it might get less severe. (E.g. right now the virus multiplies in the lungs, and a mutated virus might multiply in the upper respiratory tract, like influenza, which leads to a smaller probability of pneumonia.)
 
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rainbowbluebells

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
Littleantlers said:
Uk government have backtracked on herd immunity. I have some insight into the UK plan (somebody close involved in the planning; not a politician).

Pretty sure this article was leaked to the press: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14...ime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
Click to expand...

Honestly, I did read that. But to me, the quarantine of the elderly, as well as school closures for “only a few weeks”, still seems entirely consistent with herd immunity.
I read this thread, which explains the herd immunity policy, and what they’ve announced recently seems entirely consistent with it:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238518371651649538

So I am confused (but also would be very happy) if it were the case they are backtracking on it. Would you be able to say more? Because from the thread, and looking at that with the new plans, it doesn’t seem like they’re backtracking yet.

I have my own concerns about the quarantine as well, it makes no sense. Elderly people often live with younger people, and children, and have carers coming in and out all times of the day. These people aren’t isolating too, are they? So how on Earth is it going to work? They might have to go in and out of hospital. With the way it’s been allowed to spread uncontrolled so far, and NHS workers not being tested, hospitals will become a hotbed of covid infections - meaning elderly and vulnerable could get infected in hospitals too when they go there for other reasons.
 
rainbowbluebells

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
Inara said:
The same that can be seen in Austria and elsewhere: closure of borders, closed bars, discos, fitness studios and everything else (a friend sent me a photo of his studio where you can see the police closing it down); sadly, not nationwide right now (my fitness studio, e.g., was still open today), but I guess this will come. Supermarkets, pharmacies, gas stations, banks etc. will remain open. No bans on going out yet, but I guess this may come at some point.

Still I don't see that people, especially the young, take this seriously. Most of my family members think this is nothing. (They don't even understand that sick people like us are at a higher risk.) I think this is, amongst others, thanks to some sort of propaganda that only people in their 80s die - in Germany, the reported death cases are all over 70, but I have reason to suspect that they lie about who dies. But this will change I think. The German virologist Kekulé writes on his blog that we're at the beginning of the exponential growth. So the following days will get interesting...
Click to expand...

I see. Since they’ve already started some lockdowns, I can imagine it will increase even more over the coming days and weeks..With exponential growth, more lockdowns will happen quickly.
 
I

Inara

Senior Member
Messages
455
rainbowbluebells said:
I see. Since they’ve already started some lockdowns, I can imagine it will increase even more over the coming days and weeks..
Click to expand...
Honestly, I am not 100% sure if Germany is not on the "herd immunity" side. They acted pretty late (so late that it was absolutely clear that infestation will occurr), and now all they can do and say is slowing down the growth in order not to overwhelm the health system.
 
splusholia

splusholia

Senior Member
Messages
243
rainbowbluebells said:
Honestly, I did read that. But to me, the quarantine of the elderly, as well as school closures for “only a few weeks”, still seems entirely consistent with herd immunity.
I read this thread, which explains the herd immunity policy, and what they’ve announced recently seems entirely consistent with it:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238518371651649538

So I am confused (but also would be very happy) if it were the case they are backtracking on it. Would you be able to say more? Because from the thread, and looking at that with the new plans, it doesn’t seem like they’re backtracking yet.

I have my own concerns about the quarantine as well, it makes no sense. Elderly people often live with younger people, and children, and have carers coming in and out all times of the day. These people aren’t isolating too, are they? So how on Earth is it going to work? They might have to go in and out of hospital. With the way it’s been allowed to spread uncontrolled so far, and NHS workers not being tested, hospitals will become a hotbed of covid infections - meaning elderly and vulnerable could get infected in hospitals too when they go there for other reasons.
Click to expand...

Sorry I’m just very tired tonight. I’ll write more tomorrow.
rainbowbluebells said:
Honestly, I did read that. But to me, the quarantine of the elderly, as well as school closures for “only a few weeks”, still seems entirely consistent with herd immunity.
I read this thread, which explains the herd immunity policy, and what they’ve announced recently seems entirely consistent with it:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238518371651649538

So I am confused (but also would be very happy) if it were the case they are backtracking on it. Would you be able to say more? Because from the thread, and looking at that with the new plans, it doesn’t seem like they’re backtracking yet.

I have my own concerns about the quarantine as well, it makes no sense. Elderly people often live with younger people, and children, and have carers coming in and out all times of the day. These people aren’t isolating too, are they? So how on Earth is it going to work? They might have to go in and out of hospital. With the way it’s been allowed to spread uncontrolled so far, and NHS workers not being tested, hospitals will become a hotbed of covid infections - meaning elderly and vulnerable could get infected in hospitals too when they go there for other reasons.
Click to expand...

All I know is that this person swears there is a scientifically backed plan, and has mentioned schools closing until October. He’s leading a county response, so isn’t part of government. Perhaps his insight is limited. I’m very tired now but will write more tomorrow. Please note I don’t agree with the plan and I don’t understand why we’re not following Europe. It’s something to do with a potential deadly second wave. They have to shut down everything for long enough to prevent this.
 
rainbowbluebells

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
Inara said:
Oh, virologists in Germany said at some point that there is reason to assume this will go through the summer till winter (the virus doesn't seem to be sensitive to temperatures like influenza) and into the next year; they also think the virus won't disappear, but will behave like influenza and come every year again. It will be interesting to see in which direction the mutated virus will go: worse or less dangerous. Since a virus doesn't want to kill its host, virologists assume it might get less severe. (E.g. right now the virus multiplies in the lungs, and a mutated virus might multiply in the upper respiratory tract, like influenza, which leads to a smaller probability of pneumonia.)
Click to expand...

Yes - so in part the fact it will come back, the “second wave”, is one of the main reasons the UK govt has been pushing the herd immunity plan. The justification is; it’s going to come back even worse in the “next wave”, so let’s gradually (or not so gradually, is the reality) infect 60% of people now! When I’ve pointed out to people this is essentially letting a virus which we do not know the long term side effects, it kills people who are young as well as elderly, beings on pneumonia and 15-20% in intensive care, people say “well what will happen in the second wave, then? It’s not sustainable. How long will we stay locked down”. To which I say, well thats a second priority. By then we may have vaccines, antibody drugs or drug treatments or even cures! We don’t know. First we always save lives and try to stamp out the virus.

I spoke to my friend in Italy today. He said to me, he’s heard about the UK plans, and to them, it seems as if the UK government has just given up. It doesn’t even want to fight it.
 
rainbowbluebells

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
Inara said:
Honestly, I am not 100% sure if Germany is not on the "herd immunity" side. They acted pretty late (so late that it was absolutely clear that infestation will occurr), and now all they can do and say is slowing down the growth in order not to overwhelm the health system.
Click to expand...

Hmm... sounds a bit herd immunity-ish to me.

I just find it hard to understand why others could not think like China or South Korea or even Singapore. The economy argument doesn’t make sense because in the long term, the economy would be hit anyway.
 
I

Inara

Senior Member
Messages
455
Littleantlers said:
It’s something to do with a potential deadly second wave. They have to shut down everything for long enough to prevent this.
Click to expand...
As I wrote above, experts assume this will go into winter/spring 2021 (i.e. several waves), and I was wondering about this...Because then shutting down for some weeks is not enough. Also, I heard and read that the infection peak will be around June till August. So the measures would have to be held up till September at least, no?
 
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