alex3619
Senior Member
- Messages
- 13,810
- Location
- Logan, Queensland, Australia
You mean the post viral fatigue study? (Edit - actually post pathogen fatigue.) Nobody doubts that most with post viral fatigue will recover. Its not clear how many had ME. Some percentage of them had severe problems that persisted. I think that varied from eight to twelve percent, but its been a long time since I read this research.Ahhh but wait! What of the well defined Dubbo studies in the great land of Australia that show all but 2% recover in the first 4 years?
In any case, the highest recovery rate seems to be in the first year. I have read the quote that 90% of recoveries are in the first year. I have yet to see the evidence, and I do suspect that mostly this is because they were misdiagnosed but I have no way to be sure. I would also like to see a long term follow up, to find out how many are still without an ME or CFS diagnosis.
Yet against that we have the small David Bell study in which he showed that 10/10 patients deemed recovered were still sick. They were mostly symptom free but I think many had restricted their lifestyle to cope.
If I recall correctly, the Dubbo study was funded by the CDC.
It is still the case that we have no large scale longtitudinal epidemiological study in ME and CFS. Its been needed for decades. Its also a risk that the diagnostic process is too poor for such a study to be reliable until we have diagnostic biomarkers.
An early consensus on recovery was that after five years almost nobody recovered. Again, I am unaware that there is any formal study showing this.
Yet I am also aware the recovery rate might be higher than we discuss, largely because it can take years to be diagnosed, but those who recovered along the way were never diagnosed. I also suspect that the biochemical changes at three years might decrease recovery, and that some subgroups with documented persistent infection, EDS, or are encephalitis survivors, might be less likely to recover.
Only biomarkers, longtitudinal epidemiology and published findings will really resolve these issues.