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"Facts about COVID-19": Swiss Propaganda Research Article

Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
Saying that you can just multiply the number of deaths by 800 seems a bit odd as the entire international scientific community is still trying to figure out what the actual death rate and thus total number of infected is.
...
Some guy doing basic calculations in a Medium post is not a source I would go by personally.

I agree that one should be cautious when reading random blog posts online by those not formally involved in epidemiology.

However that Medium blog post is being read by 40 million people per week, and has also garnered attention by academics. I have a maths educational background, and to me his maths makes sense, and I think his simple calculation probably gives a good ballpark estimate of the number infected.


As for the entire international scientific community, I am a bit disappointed with the incompetence shown by some of these medical experts.

I started a thread on how the WHO's advice that the general populace should not wear masks has probably led to tens of thousands of needless deaths. If you compare the coronavirus death toll in countries in which the populace use masks compared to countries where the generally do not, there are about two orders of magnitude more deaths in the latter countries.

The WHO are currently reviewing their mask advice, and I hope that they will change it very quickly, because I believe the WHO's experts have killed tens of thousands by their unwillingness to consider masks for the populace.



There are a couple of real life examples that could provide us with a proxy for the death rate, such as the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which had a death rate of .9%. Obviously this is also a specific situation with a set of very specific circumstances.

The variations in the death rate does not alter the calculation that much. If you change the death rate in the formula from 1% down to 0.5%, then it only doubles the estimate for the number infected. That's not big deal when we are only aiming for a ballpark estimate.

What changes the formula more is the death number doubling time in days.


Tomas Pueyo's formula:

Number currently infected = D * (100/P) * 2^(17/T)

Where:
D = number of deaths to date
T = death number doubling time in days
P = percentage of infected people who die
 
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Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
Calling the world's response to SARS-CoV-2 "hysteria" is your point of view, and certainly not a fact. Polls show that most see the response to this virus as entirely appropriate. My point of view is that the West has not actually done enough, and has been too sleepy and sluggish, especially in terms of its dire failure to supply masks to the general population.

The coronavirus death toll is about 100 times higher in countries which do not use masks for the general populace:

Countries where the populace are not generally wearing masks:

Countries where the populace nearly all wear masks:
 
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Bergkamp

Senior Member
Messages
145
As for the entire international scientific community, I am a bit disappointed with the incompetence shown by some of these medical experts.
Same here.
I started a thread on how the WHO's advice that the general populace should not wear masks has probably led to tens of thousands of needless deaths
Agree with this.
If you change the death rate in the formula from 1% down to 0.5%, then it only doubles the estimate for the number infected. That's not big deal when we are only aiming for a ballpark estimate.
From a statistics point of view, I think a factor 2 is a pretty big difference, even for a ballpark estimate. Also taking into consideration that the number of deaths is probably off by a factor of 2-3x, which could amount to a total 4-6x difference.

I see your point though, and I think it’s an extremely interesting discussion as to how many people have actually been infected. Curious to see how this will play out.
 

Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
The Swiss Propaganda Research (SPR, founded in 2016, is an independent nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media) has an article daily updated very detailed, on all the missinformations in the media and everywhere about covid-19. Worth reading if this whole mess just doesn't add up for you.

Facts about Covid-19 (translations in other languages available at site)

That page is a biased set of studies. This SPR organization clearly to want to promote the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is less harmful than is generally accepted, as they only seem to include studies which downplay the seriousness of this virus.
 
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Bergkamp

Senior Member
Messages
145
In my opinion as starter of this thread, one single thread on the clear evidence - without any speculations based on the worst case scenario with no evidence whatsoever - at this point should also be allowed. Please post hysteria generating content in the dozens of the majority of threads already existing on PhoenixRising about corona.

Other opinions based on evidence without baseless speculations should also be allowed and have their dedicated thread.

Sure, my point is just that at this point in time, any evidence is not complete, since the whole thing is still unfolding. So any statements one makes about the severity of this illness will have to be partly based on scenarios and projections.
 

pamojja

Senior Member
Messages
2,378
Location
Austria
That page is a biased set of studies. This SPR organization clearly to want to promote the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is less harmful than is generally accepted, as they only seem to include studies which downplay the seriousness of this virus.

Thats your opinion. In my view this side looks at evidence which gives a more balanced outlook than the hysteria promoting mass-media. Since most only look and listen to mass-media, such a balancing outlook is the more needed. It thereby might get somethings wrong too. But thats in the nature of investigative jounalism.

However, the main sources are ongoing govenment statistics. Not even studies. You'r insinuating all goverments are lying about mortality?
 
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Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
Thats your opinion.

It's not my opinion that all the studies included in the Swiss Propaganda Research webpage are one's which tend to downplay the seriousness of this virus.

Nothing wrong with providing different academic viewpoints, but lets see the full range of studies, not cherry-picked ones which support a particular viewpoint.
 

Rufous McKinney

Senior Member
Messages
13,171
There are issues with 1)the type of testing used; 2) variation in testing methods; 3) potential for false positives and false negatives.

The false negative rate from one test is potentially 5%....we also know there are problems with labs generally being able to duplicate results. some discussion on this link:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/concerned...rus-test-quarantine-experts/story?id=69921187

Until we have a sound testing procedure that has low error rates...we won't have reliable data.
 

starryeyes

Senior Member
Messages
1,558
Location
Bay Area, California
Covid-19 Facts (Ironically called Swiss Propaganda): https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Excerpt: Professor John Oxford of Queen Mary University London, one of the world’s leading virologists and influenza specialists, comes to the following conclusion regarding Covid19: „Personally, I would say the best advice is to spend less time watching TV news which is sensational and not very good. Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!“
 

JES

Senior Member
Messages
1,318
Seasonal flu death numbers are often dodgy, it looks like some figures just simply count excess mortality during winter months and substitute that difference for seasonal flu deaths. If this thing was anything like the flu, you wouldn't see Wuhan crematories operating at five times the normal rate, Iran digging mass graves and hospitals all over the world being oversaturated.
 

lenora

Senior Member
Messages
4,857
HI Jes.....Yes, I think you have a pretty good take on what's happening. Personally, I feel the first tip-off should have been China stating that it was building new hospitals....fast!! I think someone was sleeping on the job (the press to begin with) when this was announced. I remember thinking it was peculiar, but then I'm not in charge of things.

I do feel that panic is not in our best interest. We have to take one day at a time, protect ourselves and our loved ones as much as possible and be a hopeful people.

Hi starry eyes.....Re: The stated above: Yes, I think that watching too much TV news is truly bad for all of us. Once/day, something like PBS where things aren't sensationalized to death, should keep us informed. A peek at the news on our computers should fill in the rest. It's not easy to shed becoming a news junkie, but everyone "in the know", i.e. your doctor, psychologist, nurses at the hospital will tell you that watching too much news really works against you. Drop most of it, you'll feel better for it. I've watched the news on PBS for probably 3-4 yrs., and it's enough. Local news can be found on your computer and Alexa carries things like up-to-date weather info, temperatures, etc., Find some calming music, read a book especially before bedtime. Hold the hand of the one you love, cuddle your cat or dog....do something to help you take your mind off the intensity. Yes, I'm in the high-risk field, having my children going nuts with worry isn't helping as I/we worry about them, too. Please, just focus on what makes you feel best, take good care of yourself and rest as much as possible. Be peaceful within yourself...the best medicine of all. Stay safe. Yours, Lenora
 
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Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
If Professor John Oxford thinks coronavirus is nothing more serious than seasonal flu, he would need to explain:

• Why in seasonal winter influenza epidemics, hospitals around the world are not overrun with very sick patients, whereas at present it is hell in many hospital ICUs, with the medical staff absolutely exhausted, physically and emotionally, by the sheer volume of sick patients and deaths. And it is going to get a lot worse over the coming weeks.

• Why in Italy over 100 doctors and nurses have died of coronavirus so far while they were trying to help sick and dying coronavirus patients. In the UK there have been 5 medical staff deaths so far. I don't think you get medics dying while treating influenza patients.
 

pamojja

Senior Member
Messages
2,378
Location
Austria
and hospitals all over the world being oversaturated.

the last time I've been stationary in a hospital in 2006, the treating tropical disease specialist declined a consultation because she'd been for 24 hours on active duty. From all the news I'm seing that precarious situation has in the 14 years since even worsened everywhere. And easily explains the overwhelm in some countries.

However, from the list of all countries now with covid-19 deaths and one month in (in order of their first death).

China
Philippines
Hongkong
Spain
Japan
France
Taiwan
Iran
South Korea
Italy
USA
Australia
Thailand
Slovenia
Switzerland
UK
Netherlands

Egypt

Only 6 out of 18 countries reported till today unusual mortality compared to the usual annual influenza and pneumonia death-rate.

Why in seasonal winter influenza epidemics, hospitals around the world are not overrun with very sick patients, whereas at present it is hell in many hospital ICUs, with the medical staff absolutely exhausted, physically and emotionally, by the sheer volume of sick patients and deaths. And it is going to get a lot worse over the coming weeks.

Only some reports which do explain the extraordinary circumstances in such a hot-spot like Lombardy:
  • As early as 2018, the German Doctors Journal reported a „multitude of pneumonia cases“ in northern Italy, which worried the authorities. At the time, contaminated drinking water was suspected to be one of the causes.
  • Russian experts have noticed „strange deaths“ in nursing homes in Lombardy: „According to newspaper reports, several cases have been registered in the town of Gromo in which alleged corona virus-infected persons simply fell asleep and never woke up again. No real symptoms of the disease had been observed in the deceased until then. () As the director of the nursing home later clarified in an interview with RIA Novosti, it is unclear whether the deceased were actually infected with the coronavirus, because nobody in the home had been tested for it. () In the homes, where medical and nursing teams from Russia are working, corridors, bed rooms and dining rooms are disinfected.“
  • Figures from the northern Italian city of Treviso (near Venice) show that, despite 108 test-positive deaths by the end of March, overall mortality in municipal hospitals remained roughly the same as in previous years. This is a further indication that the temporarily increased mortality in some places is more likely to be due to external factors such as panic and collapse than due to the coronavirus alone.
  • Italian doctors reported that they had already observed severe cases of pneumonia in northern Italy at the end of last year. However, genetic analyses now show that the Covid19 virus only appeared in Italy in January of this year. „The severe pneumonia diagnosed in Italy in November and December must therefore be due to a different pathogen,“ a virologist noted. This once again raises the question what role the Covid19 virus, or other factors, actually play in the Italian situation.
  • An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far.
  • A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations.
Why in Italy over 100 doctors and nurses have died of coronavirus so far while they were trying to help sick and dying coronavirus patients. In the UK there have been 5 medical staff deaths so far. I don't think you get medics dying while treating influenza patients.

Could you please link to a verifyable source indicating their real cause of death. Because the one list of 50 doctors contained even the names of physicians long retired.

  • Various media reported that more than 50 doctors in Italy have already died „during the corona crisis“, like soldiers in a battle. A glance at the corresponding list, however, shows that most of the deceased are retired doctors of various kinds, including 90-year-old psychiatrists and pediatricians, many of whom may have died of natural causes.
  • On March 30, we mentioned the list of Italian doctors who died „during the Corona crisis“, many of whom were up to 90 years old and didn’t actively participate in the crisis at all. Today, all years of birth on the list have been removed (see however the last archive version). A strange procedure.
 
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Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,785
Could you please link to a verifyable source indicating their real cause of death. Because the one list of 50 doctors contained even the names of physicians long retired.

At the time of writing this, 80 doctors and 21 nurses have lost their lives to COVID-19 since February.
Source: here
 

pamojja

Senior Member
Messages
2,378
Location
Austria
Comparing the fatality numbers we are seeing whilst enforcing strict social isolation to those from regular flu seasons, where there are no distancing measures, says everything you need to know about someone's ability to comprehend the problem...

Not counting countries without relyable reporting systems (Phillippines, Iran, Thailand..), there are as well countries which through their former experience with epidemics (Hongkong, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea) could keep the numbers incredibly down with differentiated less strict lock-downs.

While the blunt not-so-much-differentiated lock-down meassures in Spain, France and Italy didn't prevent the worse. There are many inbetween countries with more or less lockdown and differing mortality rates. I think this problem does ask for very differentiated comprehension.