Coronavirus: what your country is doing, how you feel & general discussion

[rainbowbluebells]

South Korea is a very interesting country, in that it had the most freely available testing, and the lowest mortality. Therefore I use them to calculate the most likely real number of infected. As I just posted on an other forum:




The actual numbers might have changed meanwhile again.

I think most people in responsibilty just aren't prepared for such an event. But the whole thing is developing so fast, soon every country in Europe - in a matter of the next few days - will do everything needed and possible to keep mortality as low as South Korea.

The good news come from China:

Yes it is really scary how quickly it’s developing and how much it’s affected countries in Europe so quickly, with such a loss on human life.
Edit: you say all of Europe would need to do everything possible within the next few days . I would agree with that except the UK doesn’t really feel the need to do that, as they have a different policy from everyone else, that of “herd immunity”.

Edit: gosh. Spain in lockdown

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238820627039031296

 

[pamojja]

, with such a loss on human life.

Don't loose rationality. Take a look at:

LIVE WORLD DEATH TOTALS

Noncommunicable Diseases
Cardiovascular 3,460,098 Cancer 1,537,705 Respiratory 818,285 Digestive 414,333 Psychiatric 255,704 Diabetes 230,615 Perinatal 644,971 Maternal 106,755 Nutrition 98,641 Endocrine 61,233

Infectious Diseases
AIDS 413,636 Diarrhoeal 438,946 TB 296,917 Child. Clust. 171,909 Malaria 180,334 Meningitis 68,965 Tropic Clust. 30,824 Hepatitis 32,180 Dengue 3,673 Leprosy 1,103

Injuries
Traffic Acc. 258,292 Falls 85,992 Drownings 78,632 Poisonings 70,112 Fires 62,930 Other Acc. 235,798 Suicide 171,267 Violence 121,521 War 37,019 Natural Forces 495

POPULATION
7,689,031,152

WORLD BIRTHS
28,470,394

WORLD DEATHS
11,868,259

Click For Real Time Algorithm

The Above Algorithm represents an accurate statistical simulation of selected Causes of Death based upon the World Health Organization's latest Data. Total deaths and death rate rankings for each country and all major causes of death can be found here: World Health Rankings

Almost 12 millions potentially preventable deaths a year. The 5,539 deaths from corona till now will certainly multiply manytimes soon. But with all meassures as in China soon implemented, it will still be a far cry from most other preventable infectious diseases.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

Don't loose rationality. Take a look at:



Almost 12 millions potentially preventable deaths a year. The 5,539 deaths from corona till now will certainly multiply manytimes soon. But with all meassures as in China soon implemented, it will still be a far cry from most other preventable infectious diseases.

Yes I know and understand that argument. I don’t really think it’s helpful. Every single loss of human life is sad.
However, here people are dying in different ways. In trolleys in hospitals and without ventilators. Where doctors have to make even more life and death decisions. It spreads like wildfire. There’s a reason every country is going into lockdown. I just hope every country follows suit and does all it can.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238149844906192903

 

[pamojja]

I don’t really think it’s helpful. Every single loss of human life is sad.

Totally agree. Though there is so much everyone can contribute to prevent unneccesary deaths. Just the real majors:

Cardiovascular 3,460,098: I was told by conventional medicine not much can be done. Even with all means my 5-year mortality would remain 30%. Used natural medicines instead and experienced remission. Same with my COPD and T2D. What is really sad: my GP tells me I'm his only patient having taken it on with those deathly diseases.

AIDS 413,636: Protected sex, secure needles and no transfusions.

Traffic Acc. 258,292: Already at age 20 I promissed myself to never own a private car again, to avoid possible becoming responsible for 1 of so many unneccesary deaths. Many small civil-war countries didn't face, as other countries in times of 'peace'. When young I had so much faith in the basic goodness of humans, I thought such protective behaviour would just spread like a virus. But it seems, I'm still pretty alone in this too.

Yes, every loss is sad. Since so much could be done to prevent.

 

[Learner1]

Wonder what the herd immunity people eoyld day about this - obviously this woman didn't have time to be tested...

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle...-wright-tremaine-closes-seattle-bellevue.html

As for school closures, they finally closed Washington state schools yesterday. Restaurants in Seattle are closing for a while and employees let go. This will have economic impact for many.

I thought there was another post earlier about what to do about appointments, sorry I can’t find it.
At the moment I’m waiting for some appts which are quite urgent. My plan was to try to get them done quickly, before the pandemic climbs even more, but it looks like it may take some time and I’ll end up doing surgery when the numbers of cases will be really high but there’s not much I can do really.

I mentioned appointments earlier. I have been to appointments at 2 hospitals with coronavirus patients in the past week. For now, I feel safe. I think things will get worse, so I am continuing with appointments that I think will help me for the time being. My ME/CFS specialist has moved appointments to telemedicine, which is very wise as we don't want him to get it. The better shape we can keep ourselves in, the better off we will be.

@Inara I hope you find a safe new plsce to live soon. Sounds like you will be better off losing this roommate.

 

[Hip]

First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined."
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

That's a very interesting and astute article!

So according to Tomas Pueyo's calculation in the article, the number of actual infections in a given country or region can deduced from the number of deaths that have occurred, with the number of infections being 800 times the number of deaths.

So in the UK, with the number of deaths jumping up to 21 today, that means there is an estimated 21 x 800 ≈ 17,000 infected people in the UK. Which with a population of 66 million, is about one person in 4000 infected.

Likewise in the USA, there are 47 deaths to date, so 47 x 800 ≈ 38,000 actual infected, which works out at about one person in 9000 infected.


As the article quote above explains, Tomas Pueyo's calculation by is based on the mathematics of exponential growth, and the fact that it takes an average of 17.3 days for the deaths to occur after the person is first infected. So there is a time lag to death, during which the total number of infected people will further increase, as a result of exponential spread of the virus.

In other words, the number of deaths today provides a snapshot of the situation it was 17.3 days ago; but by using the mathematics of exponential growth, you can use this snapshot to calculate the estimated number of infected today.

His calculation assumes two figures: that the death rate is 1% (1 in 100 people with the virus will die), and that the rate of exponential growth of infected people is such that the total number infected doubles every 6.2 days. From these two assumptions, you can arrive at the result that the total number infected people at any given point in time is 800 times the number of deaths at that point in time.

I like his thinking, it makes sense.

 

[bertiedog]

This is interesting. The UK bases it’s decisions on behavioural science:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238618727068897280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238621921580900364

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...relying-on-nudge-theory-to-tackle-coronavirus

Sounds like one of Dominic Cummings theories to be honest.

Pam

 

[bertiedog]

ts been said before, but is worth repeating: nearly 90% of deaths occur to the over 70s and the previously sick. Putting the breaks on the entire workforce, bringing the economy to its knees is NOT a very targeted way of helping those who need it.

I have read that 72% of those who died were men and all had previous health conditions.

Pam

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I have read that 72% of those who died were men and all had previous health conditions.

Pam

I think that things are changing now.

I was trying to find out things online through people in Italy. And that interview the Italian doctor gave to news channels a while ago. But it looks like people now are dying in their 20s, 30s and 40s. It’s not just elderly and men like the news channels used to say: a “mild” illness in most. It’s not. When they say mild, they mean you didn’t need to be admitted to hospital to use a respirator. A lot of those “mild” cases still sometimes get problems with their lungs. 15-20% need intensive care.

Its really worrying how it’s been downplayed by the govt. look at how Italy’s struggling with just a small fraction of their population. Morgues built in churches. Here in the UK we are advocating 60% of our population catching it! It’s unbelievable and scary.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

Sounds like one of Dominic Cummings theories to be honest.

Pam

Yeah.. I really do believe it is.

 

[bertiedog]

Here is all the latest stats from a legitimate source

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Pa,

 

[rainbowbluebells]

Here is all the latest stats from a legitimate source

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Pa,

I’m just confused looking at this because something is wrong with the UKs figures for sure.
1) our CSO gave an estimate figure of 5,000-10,000. What does this mean? I mean shouldn’t that be reported if he’s sure enough to mention it live on TV. But instead we are getting the counted cases only.
2. Now we know in the UK that 100% our cases are not accurate. As of 2 days ago for sure, those with “milder” illness ie not on deaths door, are not offered a test, only if you are in hospital. Before that, we didn’t test any community cases.

We know that some countries like South Korea are doing much, much more extensive testing so are picking up real figures. No one is holding countries like the Uk to account. If we did testing like South Korea our numbers may be many, many magnitudes higher than what we are saying. WHO says we must test and treat every case. But we’re just not. I don’t even think our figures should be up there tbh. They don’t really mean much to me at this point. Serious undercounting, which is known and allowed and infact advocated for by the govt. just wish there was someone or something to hold all govts to account!

 

[Hip]

Here in the UK we are advocating 60% of our population catching it! It’s unbelievable and scary.

I think what the UK government should do is try to slow down the spread so that you don't get lots of critical care cases all at once, which will overload the healthcare system. That's the key issue now. I don't think you can stop the pandemic, but you can slow it down.

The reason the death rate was higher in Wuhan than other Chinese cities seems to be because the healthcare system could not cope, so people who could have been saved by appropriate intensive care died. Thus if we prevent the system from being overloaded by slowing down the spread, then lots of lives will be saved.

It's been predicted that this virus will spread to around 70% of the population. Once that happens, herd immunity will stop further spread. This spread to 70% is I think inevitable; we will get there whether we like it or not. But going there slowly is much better than letting it all happen at once.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I think what the UK government should do it try to slow down the spread so that you don't get lots of critical care cases all at once, which will overload the healthcare system. That's the key issue now. I don't think you can stop the pandemic, but you can slow it down.

The reason the death rate was higher in Wuhan than other Chinese cities seems to be because the healthcare system could not cope, so people which could have been saved by appropriate intensive care died. Thus if we prevent the system from being overloaded by slowing down the spread, then lots of lives will be saved.

It's been predicted that this virus will spread to around 70% of the population. Once that happens, herd immunity will stop further spread. This spread to 70% is I think inevitable; we will get there whether we like it or not. But going their slowly I much better than letting it all happen at once.

I would hope they do everything in their power to slow it down. I’m just watching and waiting, every day!

 

[Inara]

@Inara I hope you find a safe new plsce to live soon. Sounds like you will be better off losing this roommate.

That's kind of you @Learner1.

 

[Pearshaped]

update Corona-V Switzerland:
estimated cases: >3000
confirmed cases: 1989
deaths: 13
schools closed.
and everyone's freaking out..
I however,living in my bubble,wouldn't have known if my caregiver didn't tell me all that today.

 

[Rufous McKinney]

I take hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis. My boyfriend jokes that I’m now “immune” to coronavirus. I wish it was as simple as that!

So this sounds: like we should be able to get hydroxychloroquine....unless whomever makes that runs out of it.

And shouldn't ME people be trying these lupus drugs?

Wikipedia says:

Hydroxychloroquine was approved for medical use in the United States in 1955.[1] It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[4] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about $4.65 per month as of 2015 when used for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus.[5] In the United States the wholesale cost of a month of treatment is about US$25 as of 2019.[6] In the United Kingdom this dose costs the NHS about £5.15.[7]In 2016 it was the 135th most prescribed medication in the United States with more than 4 million prescriptions.[8]

 

[pamojja]

Just as expected, things start to move really fast here (and with exponentiallity of the event, very fast elsewhere too).

Just found out there is now a thrive-through testing station just 15km from where I life. Just as has been available in most thoroughly tested South Korea. (..now I would need a car )

Also just got a call from my GP's assistant, cancelling my appointment on Monday. Because they couldn't guarantee the security to their patients of getting infected anymore. Replyed, I would have to see my GP anyway, because my boss expects an accessment of my risk for comming to work (have all the diseases which increases the risk of dying from it, in remission though). Where she said, GPs just now have been allowed to prescribe sickness-leaves by phone! Though she doesn't yet know how it works, I should just call on Monday.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

So this sounds: like we should be able to get hydroxychloroquine....unless whomever makes that runs out of it.

And shouldn't ME people be trying these lupus drugs?

Wikipedia says:

Hydroxychloroquine was approved for medical use in the United States in 1955.[1] It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[4] The wholesale cost in the developing world is about $4.65 per month as of 2015 when used for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus.[5] In the United States the wholesale cost of a month of treatment is about US$25 as of 2019.[6] In the United Kingdom this dose costs the NHS about £5.15.[7]In 2016 it was the 135th most prescribed medication in the United States with more than 4 million prescriptions.[8]

I don’t know how similar hydroxychloroquine is to chloroquine but I imagine very similar. Only one thing my rheumatologist said is chloroquine can turn your eyes yellow, or your face yellow, or something?!

with this drug, my ME did improve, but then I ended up relapsing due to graded exercise therapy.