Coronavirus: what your country is doing, how you feel & general discussion

[rainbowbluebells]

This is really interesting:
https://m.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/pandemie-szenario-der-regierung-die-medizinische-versorgung-bricht-bundesweit-zusammen/25637470.html?utm_referrer=https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=59293

It's in German, but I hope you can use "translation machines". If not let me know and I'll translate some parts into English.

Would it be possible to translate some parts? Thank you
I can’t see any translation button.

 

[Rufous McKinney]

Would it be possible to translate some parts? Thank you

While we wait for translation, I do wonder why German uses- alot of Capital letters...in words....

 

[Rufous McKinney]

Here is the first paragraph translated by: cutting out the text, pasting it into Google Translate....

"Seven million dead within three years, food shortages and a health system so overwhelmed that people cannot be cared for and die.

So it is in a "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection" of the Federal Government from 2012, submitted to the Bundestag in early 2013. It is also about a pandemic triggered by a fictitious virus."

 

[Inara]

Would it be possible to translate some parts? Thank you
I can’t see any translation button.

Trigger warning: Please don't continue reading if you face anxiety etc. and feel this might overwhelm you.

Please note: This is a scenario and doesn't say how it will get with the coronavirus. Nobody knows how it will come. My personal opinion is it's more negative. So no panic. This scenario does not mirror reality.

I used google translate.

Seven million dead people within three years, food shortages and a health system so overwhelmed that people cannot be cared for and die.

That's how it is in a "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection" report by the Federal Government from 2012, submitted to the Bundestag in early 2013. It is also about a pandemic triggered by a fictitious virus.
...
In contrast to the coronavirus, the authorities are really surprised by the virus in the scenario. In the model, the discovery of the pathogen only became known to the German authorities a few days before the first case in Germany.

Coronavirus, on the other hand, had a longer lead time of several weeks, so the time window for decisive action was longer.
...
"The scenario describes a worldwide spread of a hypothetical new virus originating in Asia." The name: Modi Sars virus. "The pathogen comes from Southeast Asia, where the pathogen found in wild animals was transmitted to humans via markets."
...
In the scenario, the authors expect three waves of illnesses. The first wave alone would have affected six million people.

"The health system is facing immense challenges that cannot be overcome," warned the risk analysis."
...
After the first wave has subsided, there are two further, weaker waves until a vaccine is available three years after the first cases have appeared. The reason for the next wave: Even though people who have "lived through" the disease become immune at first, they become vulnerable again: Because the virus mutates.
...
The pandemic would therefore continue for a very long period of time, "the immense number of victims and serious consequences" for people, the economy, public security and politics can be expected, according to the government's paper.

The hypothetical disease assumed in the risk analysis has similarities to the Covid 19 disease. The symptoms are: fever, cough, nausea, pneumonia.
...
The first pandemic wave would have peaked on day 300. Then six million people, eight percent of the population, would be ill at the same time, 4.1 million of whom would have to be treated in hospitals at the same time, 1.1 million even in intensive care units.
...
The study estimates at least 7.5 million deaths as a direct result of the infection. [Note: This seems too high in case of corona.] In addition, the mortality rate of Modi Sars sufferers would increase, as well as those in need of care and people suffering from other diseases.

Because, according to the risk analysis, people can “no longer receive adequate medical care or care due to the overloading of the medical and nursing area”.

A high mortality rate is assumed in the scenario. Ten percent of those affected would die...
...
"The enormous number of infected people whose illness is so serious that they should be hospitalized or would need intensive care in hospital exceeds the available capacities," says the risk analysis. And further: “This requires comprehensive screening and decisions about who can still be admitted to a clinic and treated there, and who can no longer do this. As a result, many of the people who cannot be treated will die. ”

I've just had a discussion with my roomate. He's quite pissed that I ask him to help protect me and requested that I move. Incredible.

 

[Arius]

I've just had a discussion with my roomate. He's quite pissed that I ask him to help protect me and requested that I move. Incredible.

That's awful. As if you need more stress rn.

 

[Hd-x]

I am from Germany and the situation looks for me that our politicans have no clue what to do.
I watched the TV and what other countries and their politicans like Sebastian Kurz said, the austria politicans take Corona much more serious and are many steps further.
Merkel, Spahn and their responsive ministry are awfull folks, they even count wrong just to keep corona numbers, cases + death rates low.
They first said only 0.17% would die, that was certainly big fake news.

Some Italian politicans called the EU how in hell could it be possible that noone in Germany dies from Corona and surprise, surprise today we get from our politicans other numbers and few death cases.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I am from Germany and the sitation looks for me that our politicans have no clue what to do.
I watched the TV and what other countries and their politicans like Sebastian Kurz said, the austria politicans take Corona much more serious and are many steps further.
Merkel, Spahn are awfull folks, they even count wrong just to keep corona numbers, cases + death rates low.
They first said only 0.17% would die, that was certainly fake news.

Some Italian politicans called the EU how in hell could it be possible that noone in Germany dies and surprise, surprise today we get from our politicans other numbers and few death cases.

Do you think they are not announcing the real number of deaths? Or like, attributing the death to different causes (like Co-morbidities)?

 

[rainbowbluebells]

Thank you so much @Inara for translating. As you had put a trigger warning I decided not to read it straightaway, since I have been anxious recently. But when I am in a calmer mood I will definitely come back to it.

Some good news. The UK govt did a u turn on mass gatherings , they will be banned from next week. They should really be banned today, but at least it’s better than nothing.
Hoping to see changes to testing (testing everyone, not people who end up so sick they end up in hospital), remote working, as well as school closures, cinemas etc things like that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I was quite proud in a way, of all the people who stood up and said no this is wrong. At first it seemed like not many people were holding the govt to account. But as the day went on, I noticed more and more newspaper headlines, like 1 million people could die under UK plans, and how the govt wants to let 60% of people get infected under UK plans, how many people would end up in intensive care.. Jon Ashworth (I think that’s his name) was constantly all over the news channels, he was *amazing*, just did not let it go. Really spoke up for the vulnerable and elderly. We had other people too, speaking up against the govt’s plans. And then the opposition parties in govt decided to hold a meeting with the govt on Monday to discuss why our plans are so different to all other countries and WHO. So something must have got through!

then the Queen decided to take matters into her own hands and just cancel all her events. Football cancelled all their events. Universities moved to online classes. So the govt had to accept it. I’m so glad , it’s One step at least.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I think it will still take quite a lot of time for the UK to have school closures, though. A headline came out today that closing schools would cost the govt 3% in GDP. So that’s probably a concern of theirs as well...they’ve been very reluctant to close schools.

 

[Hd-x]

Do you think they are not announcing the real number of deaths?

Reporters were asking each local German health ministry and came up to the conclusion that there was a difference off 600 (not reported) corona cases. So yes, they first tried to cheat with the real numbers.

They even dont have FFP2 masks for clinics and doctors.
They even dont know that you can buy FFP2 masks + safety googles in each local hardware tool shop like Obi, Hellweg and so on. It is really unbelivieble how unable our politicans are.

 

[rainbowbluebells]

I've just had a discussion with my roomate. He's quite pissed that I ask him to help protect me and requested that I move. Incredible.

Wow. That’s a horrible reaction for him to have. :/ How can he treat you like that?? I hope this won’t a lot of pressure and stress on you.. having to find a new room and place to stay, especially during the coronavirus outbreak and with ME as well?

 

[rainbowbluebells]

Reporters were asking each local German health ministry and came up to the conclusion that there was a difference off 600 (not reported) corona cases. So yes, they first tried to cheat with the real numbers.

They are liars and idiots, Merkel + Spahn + their so called "experts" are so stupid that it really hurts.
They even dont have FFP2 masks for clinics and doctors.
They even dont know that you can buy FFP2 masks in each local hardware tool shop like Obi, Hellweg and so on. It is really unbelivieble how unable our politicans are.

Wow that’s a large number to under-report, especially if they’re purposely doing that.

I think there is a suspicion that some countries are not reporting true figures. I will need to get the article again but remember reading Iran may still be under-reporting drastically. It’s hard for us to know , we usually just trust they’ll report it properly. Here in the Uk I’ve been suspicious for a few weeks that they were under reporting cases, but that’s because of not testing enough people, not because they’re fudging the figures. As people weren’t getting tested unless they had come back from Italy China etc, or had contact with someone specific. So official cases are still under 1000 here now. But unofficially, our scientific adviser has said we have between 5,000-10,000 cases! Which is really confusing but I can believe it, perhaps.

have Germany closed down schools, stopped gatherings and started working from home?

 

[rainbowbluebells]

This is interesting. The UK bases it’s decisions on behavioural science:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238618727068897280

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238621921580900364

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...relying-on-nudge-theory-to-tackle-coronavirus

 

[Hd-x]

Wow that’s a large number to under-report, especially if they’re purposely doing that.

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...rozent-a-4cd8bfae-59be-4c3e-ab4b-a893313b840f
It were 2369 corona infections, but the German politicans still said "only" 1567 cases.
To be exactly, they under reported 802 cases !!!

have Germany closed down schools, stopped gatherings and started working from home?

Nobody has controll over the situation, some German states will close schools - other German states will not close any schools.
This was the only thing they were doing, their primary focus is just to keep the big companies, bussiness and all the work running as usual. They still gaved the "advice" that young ppl. should not visit older people, because older ppl. have higher dead risc.
they said if ppl feel ill, such ppl. should stay at home and call their doctor via phone, but not visit clinics.
Some clinics just only have 2 lung ventilators/airpacks, they cant handle larger number off corona cases.

This is not what I expect as crisis management,
the worst thing by all this is that German ppl. are very naiv folks, most German ppl really think Corona is just a joke. There were corona infected ppl. going out making party in bars as usual and they infected many other ppl, but noone cares and punish them by law.

 

[KnowledgeItselfIsPower]

I write as a woman with 30 years of severe M.E, in the UK.
I write as someone with low white blood cells, low lymphocytes, no CD57 cells and very low Natural Killer cells.
I write as someone who get about 10-14 infections annually, even before any new pandemics!
I also write as:

A mother of four young children.
And as wife of a man who runs a business that pays for our food, home and the carers who help with the children.

I would, I think, be a real risk of getting a troublesome version of the Coronavirus. Not the mildest version of things. And for me, almost all viral infection linger and lead to extreme weakness, post viral depression and sickness behavior mediated by further brain inflammation.

So you would think I would be shouting for FAST shut of schools, gathering places and non-essential work spaces. All of which would shrink the economy very dramatically.

But I have come to see that it is not so easy. Of course lives matter. But so does economics. So does stopping businesses going bust in their droves. So does being able to put food on the table, run the heating, pay the mortgage. So does have an economy thriving sufficiently to pay the health service and support the elderly and the our children. So does a future without desperate worries because thousand and thousands of families are in economic meltdown.

There is little doubt that this pandemic will cause a global recession. The hope from those making the decisions in our government, is that they can find a way through that avoids an outright economic depression.

My own view: We, in the UK, and perhaps every other nation, should be putting HUGE resources in to supporting and protecting the 15-20% of the population who are most vulnerable - care workers with protective masks, nursing homes quarantined, carers for people with severe M.E given leave - and simultaneously hugely ramping up the number of High Dependency Beds in hospitals with every pound/dollar we have.

But shutting down schools, transport, consumer confidence, most work spaces, gatherings... ? There is, for very many, a real price to pay for that, and one which when you are actually at the hard front line of that producing economy is causing night sweats of worry, and it is not yet scientifically clear that this is medically useful.

Its been said before, but is worth repeating: nearly 90% of deaths occur to the over 70s and the previously sick. Putting the breaks on the entire workforce, bringing the economy to its knees is NOT a very targeted way of helping those who need it.

I wish our government could get with the programme and focus its fire power.

 

[frozenborderline]

I am homeless and really worried about it. while camping seems to reduce risk by more isolation what it amounts to is not having a fridge, ability to store lots of water, or electric, and thus needing to go into town to crowded grocery stores too often. Also should be on SCIG but don't have a doctor or home to do it at. I'm taking high dose vitamin c and thymosin alpha 1 injections but I don't know if these are really adequate to help.

The US is really messing this up. It's going to be disastrous and I am in a high risk group that is up to 10 percent death rate. The Chinese response was exemplary, I wish we could Match their level of preparedness

I wish I had a home and supplies

Don't even have masks

 

[frozenborderline]

Here's an interesting piece of info about calculating the true amount of cases based on deaths.
"This is an issue: You only know the official cases, not the true ones. But you need to know the true ones. How can you estimate the true ones? It turns out, there’s a couple of ways. And I have a model for both, so you can play with the numbers too (direct link to copy of the model).
First, through deaths. If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today. As many as the official cases in Italy and Iran combined."
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

 

[frozenborderline]

Ampligen being trialled in coronavirus https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...-be-tested-as-possible-coronavirus-treatment/

 

[Inara]

Wow. That’s a horrible reaction for him to have. :/ How can he treat you like that?? I hope this won’t a lot of pressure and stress on you.. having to find a new room and place to stay, especially during the coronavirus outbreak and with ME as well?

I won't move (haha, I can't move - where to? It's not like a person like me gets an apartment).