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Coronavirus: what your country is doing, how you feel & general discussion

pattismith

Senior Member
Messages
3,966
We now have confirmation from tv that deaths are underestimated in France. They said only people who die in hospitals are counted. It means many old people who die outside are not tested nor taken into account...
I recall that tested positive people are about 1% of the real number of total infected in my country...
 
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Mick

Senior Member
Messages
138
So much for a World Health Organisation.

I wouldn't condemn WHO so easily as the statistics will get better over time and when a similar methodology is employed between different countries. But this statistics doesn't really matter now. The important thing is that we know that it is flawed and we know why ie. we know basic assumptions and conditions why in certain countries the mortality rate is lower or higher.

So we can draw some conclusions:
- The mortality rate given as one number doesn't make any sense because there are actually 3 groups of people that have to be considered, so 3 numbers are needed. These groups are people between 0 and 40 years of age, 40 and 60 years of age, and older. Only in the group of older folks the mortality is really high and alarming. But in countries with an efficient healthcare system it is still quite low (ie. Germany) whereas in Italy, Spain it is high. Thus the overall mortality depends on how old is the population and how good or bad is the healthcare system in a particular country. Or how well they prepared for the outbreak.

This also allows us to draw a conclusion that rapid improvements and increasing the number of ICUs will be crucial.

With time new drugs and therapies will be developed (remdesivir, chloroquin) and hopefully in two months everything will start to get back to normal, although there will still be restrictions in place.

Without restrictions the healthcare system of any country, even Germany, would be overwhelmed.
But I'm sure you all know that.

The statistics were good enough to cause a shift in policy of all countries (with minor exceptions) and even Boris Johnson gave in. So it doesn't matter that the numbers are incorrect, all that matters is that it works.
 

rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
I did not know that about France. I don’t know if it’s similar in the UK but there have been reports of people dying of corona virus in the Uk who were refused a test (while Alive) and not even taken into hospital, who died 24 hours later. No idea if theyeven given a test.

And today from the UK, this: (Newsnight)

“Department of health is changing how it’s reporting and compiling figures

It turns out these deaths may not be the number of deaths that have taken place over the last 24 hours. The department of health, the NHS, needs to have consent from the families of the people who died, to release the figures. So it’s not exactly a like for like figure every day”.

Why is this done? I don’t think this is done in other countries. That means our death rate isn’t the number who died 24 hours before.

Perhaps there’s a lag. It may also be related to the fact tests may take some time to get results back.
But also, what if some families refuse to give consent? What then? Why is consent needed for official figures?

Aside from the fact the public aren’t seeing what is happening each day, anyone doing any graphs/modelling or trying to keep track of figures to see what’s going on and how policies are affecting the death rate, won’t get an accurate picture.

Edited to add this:
 
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Hd-x

Senior Member
Messages
244
Since the infections numbers are climbing daily, I tried to buy a FFP2 mask on Ebay to protected my old mother (89years), because she needs urgently medical help because off getting a disc prolaps and she cant breath with my FFP3 mask. (it is really exhausting walking with FFP3 masks :pem:)
I was pretty surprised (and angry) that it wasnt possible to place a bid on some 3M mask Ebay auctions.
Well, but I found a single FFP2 NoName mask from a small private seller and had luck that the payment went through. It still took few hours and I got a message from Ebay that the FFP2 mask auction has been deleted from Ebay.
Well, however so - luckely the mask arrived for my mother and everything is fine.

I personally found it irresponsible
that it seems our government tries to stop any FFP2/3 mask buying + trading on some online plattforms.

It is irresponsible because our politicans worked out a paper that older Coronna/Covid patients (over 80 years) will not get any artificial respiration :mad: - so yes, it is importand that older ppl. who need medical help because off disc prolaps that requires visiting a health care center,
get access to FFP2 masks for protection reasons.
 
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Hd-x

Senior Member
Messages
244
I guess the government did so,
I cant see any logical reasons why it should be illegal to buy a FFP2/3 mask, such mask are widely used for workers as dust protection and now since corona they are used to protect doctors, but our goverment didnt have enough masks and the clinics are making huge complains against our politicans that they do not deliver the clinics with FFP2 masks.

Few weeks ago, the next local tool market was full with FFP2 masks,
it still took a few days and not any single mask anymore availible, but I dont see any ppl. on the street wearing any masks. What I have seen few single ppl. wearing a full gas mask!!!
So where have been all the FFP2/3 masks gone?

I guess the army has buyed all the tool market FFP2/3 masks so that they were able to deliver some clinics.
Well, but not all clinics have enough masks, some clinics try to buy masks on Alibaba and some other chinese plattforms without knowing if they perhaps just paid a fake company that will never ship any single mask.
The pharmacist was asking me today where I buyed my FFP3 mask, I told him that I was a car mechanic in past and this was the only reason that I had FFP3 masks@home. I am really sorry for the pharmacist and that he is unprotected, but protecting my own family members did have priority in such days.
Usually such masks are "one-way-products" and after visiting the health care center with my mother I will desinfect the mask with an UV-light, just to be sure to keep the mask "virus-free" for repeated usage. I also have always a desinfection spray in my pocket, but this was not because off Covid - I was doing so all the time if I visited any doctors office to prevent catching any additional flue because off my ME/CFS+MCAS.
It is a totally strange situation.
 
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rainbowbluebells

Senior Member
Messages
248
It's probably due to our data protection laws. They are pretty strict.

From reading from Office for National Statistics, though, it doesn’t seem to be the case that consent is needed to report deaths. Consent doesn’t seem to be needed for aggregate reporting like number of deaths from corona virus.
 

PatJ

Forum Support Assistant
Messages
5,288
Location
Canada
except for the scattered idiots who think we should fire up the economy, and damn the torpedos, full speed ahead.

There's an interesting article here on the New York Times about what could happen, based on the article author's model, if the isolation period is too short.

I also found this description from the article very informative, and might be useful to show to those people who think Covid19 is similar to the flu (bold added):
One gauge of a virus is how contagious it is. The flu has an infectiousness measure (or R0) of only about 1.5, meaning that each sick person infects on average 1.5 others. In contrast, Covid-19 without social distancing appears to have an R0 of perhaps 2.5.

A second gauge of a virus is how often infected people must be hospitalized. With the seasonal flu that’s roughly 1 percent; with the coronavirus, estimates range from 5 percent to 20 percent.

A higher R0 and higher hospitalization rate conspire to wreak havoc. A single person with the flu can result in the infections of 386 other people over two months, and a handful would be hospitalized. But in that same period one Covid-19 patient could lead to the infections of 99,000 people, of whom nearly 20,000 might need to be hospitalized.

A third measure is lethality, the “case fatality rate,” or percentage of people who contract an illness who eventually die of it. For the flu, this is about 0.1 percent. For Covid-19, there are enormous uncertainties but even in optimal circumstances it may be 10 times greater, roughly 1 percent – although it has been much higher than that in countries like Italy with older populations and overburdened hospitals.

Edit: Note that the number of nearly 20,000 needing to be hospitalized is the highest, and most dramatic, estimate. But even the lowest end of the scale at 5%, or 5,000 people is still five times higher than the flu. And presumably that 99,000 infected number is also on the high side. So the actual number of people infected and hospitalized cover quite a potential range depending on infected patient movement within a community, whether they hang out on a crowded location vs practicing social distancing etc.
 
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nyanko_the_sane

Because everyday is Caturday...
Messages
655
Yes, PPE gear is in high demand everywhere and as a consequence we the vulnerable public are denied. That is how it is, we have no choice in the matter. It is in the name of protecting those who need protection most, the frontline medical workers. This will be the priority for a while it seems.

But hey, we can improvise our own masks. They may not be as effective, but it is still better than nothing.
http://www.trainwithbain.com/sewmasks-for-the-millionmaskchallenge/
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/
 
Messages
73
Location
Richmond, VA
I thought testing was supposed to be free???????

It is - but I wasn't tested. I'll definitely get a larger bill than $40 since they did two flu tests and a strep test (all negative) - and also had a "Level 4 Medical Consult" - whatever that means.

Also - Day 11 - all symptoms improving, no caveats! Wife's symptoms continue to worsen, but not alarmingly so. She looks like I was on Day 6 or 7.
 

ellie84

Senior Member
Messages
120
Location
Italy
A bit of good news for the UK. 250,000 ordinary people have signed up as volunteers to help our NHS.
What will ordinary people do to help? I'm just asking, because here they asked health care workers to "volunteer" (they get paid), but I haven't heard about anything else except donating blood. I'd like to help in some way, but I don't know exactly how. I wanted to donate blood, but I'm barely 50 kg, and you must be above that weight to donate.
 

andyguitar

Senior Member
Messages
6,647
Location
South east England
What will ordinary people do to help?
They will be delivering food and medicine to patients who have been discharged from hospital before they normally would and are unable to get out. There is often a delay in discharging patients who dont have a medical reason to stay in hospital. They need help at home to get over an operation for instance. They dont need a hospital bed. Other jobs will be driving and helping out with logistics.
 
Messages
74
Location
Berkshire UK
I have severe ME but do not have any of the conditions listed by the government to put me on the extra vulnerable government list. Does anybody else know if we qualify for this group ... I suffer a lot with breathlessness, lung construction plus POTS ... use a powerchair full time ... any guidance would be great on what others think. I am self isolating and getting food deliveries etc but just wondering ... thank you
 
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