@mariovitali - I'm trying to think of a good way to explain the relationship between SNPs and disease. I'm not a teacher, so it's not something I'm any good at. But since you don't have a couple hours per week to spare for a proper free introductory course online, here's my attempt:
SNPs (or more specifically alleles) are the basis of genes. Typically there are hundreds or thousands of them on each gene. The gene creates a protein. If there is a major change in that protein, it might function differently. That can result in too much or too little of the protein, or the protein being too effective or ineffective at doing its job, or no protein being created at all. When the protein is badly malfunctioning, that is when disease can result.
SNPs --> gene --> protein --> disease.
So SNPs can result in disease, but you can't take a shortcut straight from SNP --> disease. The SNP will only cause disease if it fundamentally alters the protein. But most SNPs don't alter the proteins at all - and that's a very good thing, because they are made of nucleobases (A, C, G, T), where cytosine (C) is rather fond of spontaneously degrading (deaminating) into thymine (T). That degradation usually gets fixed, but often it doesn't. Luckily our DNA isn't so fragile as to have most minor changes causing disease, or any problems at all.
But there are places where the specific alleles are a lot more relevant. This can be in splicing sites (which are known about), and a different allele can cause exons to be skipped. But most of these alleles are in the exons themselves. These exons are clearly marked on various utilities like dbSNP. The alleles in the exons spell out the amino acids which are linked together to form proteins. Each group of three consecutive SNPs forms a "codon" which specifies the next amino acid to add to the protein, or the codon signals that the end of the protein has been reached and no more amino acids are to be added.
SNP --> codon --> amino acid --> protein structure --> disease.
But even in exons we cannot skip straight from having a different allele on a SNP to assuming there is an alteration in the protein structure, much less a resulting disease. Each codon specifies an amino acid, but they often are not very picky about it being completely precise. Much like in misspelling words, a slight variation in a codon is often still understood to create the correct amino acid. Most commonly, the third (final) allele in each codon can have 2 or 4 variations which result in creating the same amino acid. So it doesn't matter at all if a codon in an exon has "TCG" instead of "TCA", as they both result in serine being added to the protein, and the function is completely unchanged.
But even when a different amino acid is created by a codon, it often doesn't have a significant impact. Many amino acids are pretty similar to each other, and result in the protein having the same integrity and form as the more common version. So here there is a slightly different protein being made, but usually without any resulting disease or other significant impact. The actual problems arise in exons when:
- the change is in an important region where the protein interacts (connects) with another protein
- the new amino acid has very different behavior
- there is a premature termination of the protein prior to the important parts of it, or
- there is an inserted or deleted allele, resulting in a frame-shift, and the "reading" of the codons to create the amino acids gets completely garbled.
The impact of these changes can often be predicted without actual genetic research, due to what is known about the behavior of the amino acids, the importance of specific parts of the protein created, and even things like 3D modeling of the resulting protein. Though even then, it's essentially an educated guess.
Basically, it's not possible to guess that SNPs outside of exons are having any impact. We need proper research showing that those SNPs do or do not have an impact. If predicting is to be done, it's for the missense mutations (amino acid changes) or nonsense mutations (premature stops) in the exons, and there are valid ways in which to go about it. Some are simple, like the BLOSUM62 amino acid chart, and some programs evaluate dozens of factors regarding the amino acid, it's location, nearby amino acids, 3D modeling, etc. So this is also a far cry from guessing blindly.