Wall Street Journal Blood Supply Risk, Planning required - Letter to Australian Minister for Health
Alex Young <alex3619@optusnet.com.au> to
CO-CURE today
The following email has been sent to the Australian Minister for Health, Nicola Roxon.
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From: Alex Young
To:
nicola.roxon.mp@aph.gov.au
Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 2010 8:46 PM
Subject: Wall Street Journal Blood Supply Risk, Planning required
The Hon Nicola Roxon MP, Minister for Health and Ageing,
The following link is to an article in the Wall Street Journal, regarding
the risk to public health of the virus XMRV:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303450704575160081295988608.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Planning should have already commenced to deal with this potential pandemic.
This virus may yet turn out to be innocuous, but over six percent of the
world's population might be affected, based on realistic estimates. This is
calculated from combining the percentages of healthy people who are
infected, with percentages from those illnesses that are suspected to be
caused by it. The 6% figure could rise to 10% if certain worst case
assumptions are real, but this is unlikely. However, if over two million
Australians turn out to be infected with a potentially lethal retrovirus,
you can expect serious repercussions to Australia. Planning must commence
now, if it hasn't started already.
The best case scenario is, of course, that this virus turns out to be an
innocuous "passenger" virus, in which case only the cost of preliminary
planning will be wasted. I, and many others, are not yet advocating urgent
action, as the science isn't there yet. The need for urgent action may yet
arise before the end of the year, so your office should be tracking public
announcements from the USA regarding this virus.
As for treatment, a number of antiretrovirals have some efficacy in the lab,
although human trials have not commenced. If the risks are confirmed by
further research, then between 340,000 (using Japanese prevalence data) to
two million Australians will require urgent antiretrovirals at considerable
cost, as many of these people are disabled and could not afford commercial
purchase of these drugs at current rates. Of course, only mass screening
will enable all these people to be identified, so that has to be planned for
as well. As the potential cost to Australia for drug subsidy could easily be
in excess of twenty billion dollars a year, urgent attention to this problem
is required.
The good news is that with this treatment several hundred thousand disabled
Australians may be able to reenter the workforce.
Thank you for your attention,
Alex Young,
B.Sc., B.Inf.
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