Lol. You are driving me crazy
. But i don't want to start a discussion again, so i won't talk about this on and on.
Some people were worrying about what will happen if the general public starts to become aware of XMRV and XMRV is actually dangerous. Since there is no certainty yet about which illnesses XMRV causes, the only way we can try to answer what will happen, is to make some thoughts based on assumptions. This is a CFS forum, so people here only have to be worried if XMRV and CFS are associated, because if that's not the case, most people here will not be XMRV positive.
I think the assumption of a prevalence of XMRV in the population of developped countries of 3% is a pretty good guess (we had the Science study, now this RKI study and the Japanese Red Cross values). If in healthy controls it's between 2 and 4%, then it will also be somewhere in that region (a bit higher of course, but probably not much) in the general poplulation. Or what percentage of the gerenal population do you think won't qualify as healthy controls (are not healthy)? Give them 100% XMRV positivity (which is too high as not every health problem is caused by XMRV or leads to XMRV positivity) and you can calculate how much higher than the 2 to 4% the prevalence in the general population can be at maximum.
Make a better guess, if you like, i'd like to hear. If it's higher than 3% that will mean less trouble for the XMRV positive people, because the more there are, the less possible it's to stigmatize them.
I also think the assumption of 0.3% of the population of developped countries having CFS is pretty safe. That would be ~1 million in the USA. Sometimes we hear even higher estimates.
I don't think you can say that 97% of the people diagnosed with CFS according to the CCC have XMRV.
From the WPI we have heard numbers as high as 99%, but you can't give an exact number since XMRV tests have not been done in large enough numbers around the world and are not reliable enough yet.
But for my calculation it does not matter anyway, because i was calculating for the (until now) hypothetical case, that XMRV is the cause of CFS. And in this case it will be 100% of XMRV positivity in true CFS cases, the others will have been misdiagnosed.
CFS has been around for how long? Around 25 years? So if it's caused by XMRV, which is probably the only case in which people here really have to worry about being percieved as dangerous, then, unless CFS develops a very long time after the XMRV infection, we can say that XMRV is not easily transmitted, because if it were, we would have tons of cases where one person in a couple or family has had CFS and later the other person/other family members got/have gotten ill too. Like in HIV, where it could clearly be seen that it's infectious, even though it's much less easy to transmit than influenza or other illnesses.