"Facts about COVID-19": Swiss Propaganda Research Article

[andyguitar]

When all this is over, the debate should be about society's attitude to the elderly. And infection control. In the UK both are bad.

 

[JES]

It's interesting to read what he says @pamojja and I have been following what has happened in Iceland. One thing that makes me cautious about comparing Iceland to other countries is that there is less genetic diversity there. So maybe their genetic make up gives them some protection?

It could also be due to environmental factors. Living on an island with 364 134 population in total, most of the time in coldness and darkness, I think people are naturally less prone to come in contact and infect each other. When your entire population is the size of a small city it makes it a bit easier to isolate and contact trace.

Anyway, what I find interesting is that new cases and deaths have started to decline significantly in most European countries except for UK perhaps. For example Austria, Germany and Norway claim to have the infection "under control" due to R0 going below 1. Meanwhile we also know that in all the aforementioned countries, there have been very few COVID-19 deaths, which would suggest they are nowhere close to any kind of herd immunity.

It looks to me like we are at the beginning of a new phase in the mentioned countries and the question next becomes, what is the best strategy to move forwards from now.

 

[roller]

that larger countries are under reported it may be normal since...
- ppl may live ages apart from any hospitals.
- going there is difficult, expensive.
- ppl may be afraid of the unknown - hospitals, machines, the different "language"
- being separated for a long time

in many countries, defense laws are applied and army may be around...
all quite scaring.

in smaller well developed countries an ambulance or a doctor may drop by...
if people are more at ease with the way the countries handles the disease (after reporting), they may show more compliance...

perhaps, interesting things in the comparisons could be
- population density per square mile/kilometer (the higher, the better reported perhaps)
- how often ppl have been to hospitals before... (average "visiting frequency")
...

 

[pamojja]

.., certainly cherry picking almost exclusively similiar western countries. Additional all of the 9 largest and worse affected countries (according to my comparison to the average pneumonia mortality, only Ireland is missing; the other very strong affected countries are all very small: San Marino, Sint Maarten, Andorra, Channel Islands, Monaco, Isle of Man, Bermuda and Aruba. Most populations even below 100 000. While China and Iran most certainly underreported).

Interresting in what they could have in common. Like for example SAD, pollution, polypharmacy...

that larger countries are under reported it may be normal since...
- ppl may live ages apart from any hospitals.
- going there is difficult, expensive.
- ppl may be afraid of the unknown - hospitals, machines, the different "language"
- being separated for a long time

I don't think larger countries underreported per se, just most obvious dictatorships like Iran and China. Additionally most cases been in dense urban areas with close hospitals. Where also Iran and China have nearby ambulances (additionally, being placed on ventilators in hospitals wont save many lifes anyway). But strong political reason for underreporting. While many western did the opposite and overreported (by counting deaths on mere suspiction).

The reason there are now 10 normal sized and with 8 very small countries relatively many is, that in all the smallest 8 countries a combined average of 21 covid deaths with an average population of ~80 000 was already multiple to the 2017 pneumonia mortality.

However, looking at it differently. 9 of the worse affected countries are basically still in the EU. Geographically seen: 15 countries worse affected are in Europe. Only Aruba, Bermuda, and Sint Martin, as really tiny exceptions, could be counted to America.

And on a even larger scale, worse affected will remain the EU at now 2.95 times the incidence of influenzia and pneumonia mortality averaged for 2017. Second the US at now 1.75 times. The rest of all the 153 by now affected countries, inlcuding all those tiny states with higher mortality, is averaged at 0.47 times the influenzia and pneumonia mortality of 2017.

Without really knowing what happened in China and Iran, one could almost assume its exclusively a rich country disease. And there affecting the most vulnerable.

 

[roller]

april 23, 2020

Minorities in the UK - hit worse than others

• Figures show 72% of Covid-19 medical casualties are from BAME backgrounds
• Black, Asian and Ethnic Minority (BAME) people make up 44% of NHS medics

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...dics-account-72-cent-NHS-Covid-19-deaths.html

 

[andyguitar]

Minorities in the UK - hit worse than others

Still dont know why this is.

Without really knowing what happened in China and Iran, one could almost assume its exclusively a rich country disease. And there affecting the most vulnerable.

Richer countries also have a bigger elderly population so more are at risk.

 

[pamojja]

Richer countries also have a bigger elderly population so more are at risk.

There are too many exceptions, to consider larger elderly populations a deciding factor. First Japan comes to mind, with a larger elderly population. But only 0.04 times the average flu mortality till now.

Even in the EU you have Estonia, Slovakia, Czechia, Romania, Cyprus, Lithuania, Finland, Croatia, Hungary, Portugal, Denmark, Greece, Poland, Norway, Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, and Slovenia in average at only 0.6 times the average pneumonia mortality.

Versus in average even 4.53 times mortality from only 10 countries. Even in those in its severity is a very regional phenomena. Really severe only in 5 region in the north of Italy (Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Piedmont, Veneto, Liguria). Larger Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan area in Spain. Paris metropolitan area in France.

Why, just as examples, metropolitan areas of Berlin, Rome or Athens got spared? Age doesn't explains sufficiently between developed countries.

Minorities in the UK - hit worse than others

Still dont know why this is.

Form interviews of Swedens epidemiologists I gather, that they initially didn't give much attention to their nursing homes (almost half of their deaths) with mostly workers with migrating background, and even shortcomings of communication to them. Double explosive. One clear association would be lower vitamin D blood levels of people with darker skin in northern hemispheres. An other is of course lower income=less healthy eathing and health in general.

 

[pamojja]

An other update from the "Fact about Covid-19" article. Subsumming studies, experts and articles with less coverage in the mass-media. Please do check the given sources to check if it got it right. I'll leave the politcal update out, since I don't want to stirr this hornet-nest any further.

May 6, 2020

Expert interviews

• Stanford professor John Ioannidis explains in an interview with CNN that Covid19 is a „widespread and mild disease“ comparable to influenza (flu) for the general population, while patients in nursing homes and hospitals should receive extra protection.
• Stanford professor Scott Atlas explains in an interview with CNN that „the idea of having to stop Covid19 has created a catastrophic health care situation“. Professor Atlas says that the disease is „generally mild“ and that irrational fears had been created. He adds that there is „absolutely no reason“ for extensive testing in the general population, which is only necessary in hospitals and nursing homes. Professor Atlas wrote an article at the end of April entitled „The data are in – Stop the panic and end total isolation“ that generated over 15,000 comments.
• Epidemiologist Dr Knut Wittkowski explains in a new interview that the danger of Covid19 is comparable to an influenza and that the peak was already passed in most countries before the lockdown. The lockdown of entire societies was a „catastrophic decision“ without benefits but causing enormous damage. The most important measure is the protection of nursing homes. Bill Gates‘ statements on Covid19 are „absurd“ and „have nothing to do with reality“, a vaccination against Covid19 is not necessary. The influential Covid19 model of the British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was a „complete failure“.
• German virologist Hendrik Streeck explains the final results of his pioneering antibody study. Streeck found a Covid19 lethality of 0.36%, but explains in the interview that this is an upper limit and the lethality is probably in the range of 0.24 to 0.26% or even below. The average age of test-positive deceased was approximately 81 years.
• Biology professor and Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt, who has been analyzing the spread of Covid19 since February, describes the general lockdown as a „huge mistake“ and calls for more targeted measures, especially to protect risk groups.
• The emeritus microbiology professor Sucharit Bhakdi explains in a new German interview that politics and the media have been conducting an „intolerable fear-mongering“ and an „irresponsible disinformation campaign“ towards the population. Face masks for the general population are useless and dangerous „germ catchers“. The current crisis was brought about by the politicians themselves and has little to do with the virus. A vaccine against coronavirus is „unnecessary and dangerous“, as was the case with swine flu, and compulsory vaccination is wrong. The WHO has „not taken responsibility for its many wrong decisions“ over the years, professor Bhakdi argues. (Note: The video was temporarily deleted by YouTube).
• The Swiss chief physician for infectiology, Dr. Pietro Vernazza, explains in a new interview that the Covid19 disease is „mild for the vast majority of people“. The „counting of infected people and the call for more tests“ would not help much. In addition, most of the people listed in the corona statistics would not die solely from Covid-19. The lethality rate of Covid-19 is „in the order of magnitude of a seasonal flu“. There is no evidence for the benefit of face masks in people who do not show symptoms themselves (archived version).

Medical studies

• A new overview of existing PCR and antibody studies shows that the median value of Covid19 lethality (IFR) is 0.20% and thus in the range of a strong influenza.
• A new antibody study with Danish blood donors showed a very low Covid19 lethality (IFR) of 0.08% for persons under 70 years of age.
• A new antibody study from Iran, one of the earliest and most affected countries by Covid19, also showed a very low lethality of 0.08% to 0.12%.
• A new antibody study from Japan comes to the conclusion that about 400 to 800 times more people there had contact with the new coronavirus than previously thought, but showed no or hardly any symptoms. Japan had done rather few tests so far.
• A new study from Germany, with the participation of leading virologist Christian Drosten, shows that about one third of the population already has some cellular immunity to the Covid19 corona virus, presumably through contact with earlier corona viruses (cold viruses). This cellular immunity by so-called T-cells is significantly higher than PCR and antibody tests suggested and may partly explain why many people develop no symptoms with the new coronavirus.
• In a prison in the US state of Tennessee, only two out of 1349 test-positive people showed any symptoms at all.
• On the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, none of 1046 test-positive sailors have died so far. On the US aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, one of 969 test-positive sailors has died so far (preconditions and exact cause of death are not known).
• Numerous media reported about alleged „re-infections“ of already recovered persons in South Korea. However, researchers have now come to the conclusion that all of the 290 suspected cases were false-positive test results caused by „non-infectious virus fragments“. The result again highlights the well-known unreliability of PCR virus tests.

Other medical updates

• Numerous media reported that in connection with Covid19, more and more children would fall ill with so-called Kawasaki disease (a vascular inflammation). However, the UK’s Kawasaki Disease Foundation issued a press release stating that fewer, not more, Kawasaki cases are currently being reported than usual and that of the few cases reported, only about half had tested positive for corona virus.
• In an open letter to the French Ministry of Health, a French doctor speaks of Covid19 as „the biggest health scam of the 21st century“. The danger of the virus for the general population is in the range of influenza and the consequences of the lockdown are more dangerous than the virus itself, the French doctor argues.
• In France, it became known during a subsequent investigation that the first Covid19-positive patient had already been treated at the end of December 2019, one month earlier than previously assumed. The man was being treated for what appeared to be flu-related pneumonia. This case shows that the new corona virus either arrived in Europe earlier than assumed, or that it is not as new as assumed, or that the test result was a false-positive. In addition, it is not clear whether the man, who has long since recovered, was actually suffering from flu or corona virus or both.
• The Executive Director of the WHO recently praised Sweden as a successful model for handling Covid19. Sweden had implemented its health policy successfully and „in partnership with the population“, he said. Previously, Sweden had been heavily criticized for weeks by foreign media and politicians for its relaxed approach to Covid19.
• Belarus, which took the least action against Covid19 of all European countries and did not even cancel major events like soccer matches, is counting only 103 test-positive or suspected Covid19 deaths after more than two months. The Belarusian long-term president Lukashenko called Corona a „psychosis“. Critics argue he is not disclosing the real number of deaths.
• An extensive literature review by a Canadian researcher found that face masks do not provide measurable protection against colds and influenza.
• A Swiss chief psychiatrist expects a sharp increase in psychological problems and more than 10,000 additional suicides worldwide due to the global lockdown and unemployment.
• The so-called reproduction number, which indicates the proliferation of Covid, is increasingly becoming a political issue. However, this does not change the facts: the peak of the spread was already reached in most countries before the lockdown and the reproduction ratio fell to or below the stable value of one due to simple everyday and hygiene measures. The lockdown was therefore epidemiologically unnecessary.
• The clinical picture and risk groups of Covid19 corona viruses are probably related to the use of the so-called ACE2 cell receptor, which is found in the bronchi and lungs, but also in blood vessels, the intestines and kidneys. However, other coronaviruses, in particular the common cold virus NL63, also use the ACE2 cell receptor. Some researchers therefore expect that the Covid19 coronavirus, too, will become a typical cold virus in the medium term.
• The exact origin of the new corona virus is still unclear. The easiest explanation remains natural transmission or mutation, which happens quite often. It is true, however, that the virological laboratory in Wuhan, as part of a research programme co-financed by the US, studied corona viruses from bats and also examined their transmissibility to other mammals, something that has been criticised for years by some researchers as too risky. The renowned head of the laboratory, however, explained that the new virus did not correspond to the corona viruses investigated in the laboratory. Earlier rumours about „bioweapons“ or „HIV sequences“ are to be regarded as disinformation in view of the relative harmlessness of the corona virus.

Nursing Homes and rest at site..

 

[pamojja]

Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode

It was an Imperial College computer model that forecasted 500K deaths in the UK (and 2.5 million in the US) should policymakers pursue a “herd immunity” approach (a la Sweden), that influenced them to reverse course and go full lockdown instead.

A code review has been undertaken by an anonymous ex-Google software engineer here, who tells us the GitHub repository code has been heavily massaged by Microsoft engineers, and others, in an effort to whip the code into shape to safely expose it to the pubic. Alas, they seem to have failed and numerous flaws and bugs from the original software persist in the released version. Requests for the unedited version of the original code behind the model have gone unanswered.

In one instance, a team at the Edinburgh University attempted to modify the code so that they could store the data in tables that would make it more efficient to load and run. Performance issues aside, simply moving or optimizing where the input data comes from should have no effect on the output of processing, given the same input data. What the Edinburgh team found however, was this optimization produced a variation in the output, “the resulting predictions varied by around 80,000 deaths after 80 days” which is nearly 3X the total number of UK deaths to date.

Edinburgh reported the bug to Imperial, who dismissed it as “a small non-determinism” and told them the problem goes away if you run the code on a single CPU (which the reviewer notes “is as far away from supercomputing as one can get”).

Alas, the Edinburgh team found that software still produced different results if it was run on a single CPU. It shouldn’t, provided it is coded properly. Whether the software is run on a single CPU or multi-threaded, the only difference should be the speed at which the output is produced. Given the same input conditions, the outputs should be the same. It isn’t, and Imperial knew this.

Most of us are familiar with the computing adage, “Garbage In/Garbage Out” and the untrained reader may think that’s what being asserted in this code review. It isn’t. What’s being asserted is that output is garbage, regardless of the input.

More HERE.

 

[pamojja]

I did a most simple calculation to try to find out, what was really going on. And in what proportion the scary media-reports have to be seen:

At that time - 4 weeks ago - those 20 countries had at least tested 1000 covid positive. Only Italy at time had a somewhat unusual mortality, compared to its very low 2017 rate. 5% of countries.

9 day later on March 27th I posted a much more refined update in the same thread:

In 9 days there were already 43 countries with more than 1000 covid positve tested. Of which the countries with abnormally high pneumonia deaths has risen to 3 (San Marino, Italy and Spain). 7% of countries

5 day later an other update on April 1st, I don't think I posted anywhere:

Already 50 countries with more than 1000 positive tested, while 7 countries with strikingly higher mortality. 14% of countries affected. A doubling in 5 days!

Its time for an update again.

Here it is:

Already 87 countries with more than 1000 positive tested. 14 with higher mortality. 16% of countries affected. It really slowed down!

10 days later there are 110 countries with above 1000 positives. Only 13 countries with higher mortality. With 13% of countries affected, its now clearly declining already. (below shreenshots in 4 parts, click each to enlarge and see details)

View attachment 37060
View attachment 37061
View attachment 37062
View attachment 37063

The majority of all by covid affected countries - 97 (83.4% of the world population)- experienced only 30% of the 2017 average influencia and pneumonia mortality-rate (calculated for those affected countries and the individual time period). Only 13 countries (4.1% of the world-population) experienced till now an in average 7 times higher mortality. For all these 110 covid-affected countries together, that amounts to 20% higher mortality than in 2017.

However, calculated for all countries of this world it is now only at about 60% of those who died in 2017 of influenzia/pneumonia in 2017 in equal periods.

The worldwide covid situation in comparison to the average influencia and pneumonia mortality, 15 days later again:

162 countries in total now affected by covid deaths, only 18 of them with much more than the usual average 2017 influenca and pneumonia mortality. Reduced now to 11.2% of affected countries.

And we are now at only 26% of the whole worlds influencia and pneumonia mortality during the same time period in 2017.

 

[pamojja]

 

[pamojja]

The worldwide covid situation in comparison to the average influencia and pneumonia mortality, 15 days later again:

162 countries in total now affected by covid deaths, only 18 of them with much more than the usual average 2017 influenca and pneumonia mortality. Reduced now to 11.2% of affected countries.

And we are now at only 26% of the whole worlds influencia and pneumonia mortality during the same time period in 2017.

An other 15 days later uploaded the spreadsheet actualized to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...7IdxcdxjtoTOED0krQFlzJWUZzSjGU6wFX38K/pubhtml

 

[percyval577]

I found this yt presentation rather helpful. I do not understand why the EU or the WHO don´t provide such an overview. It would have been possible since long.

Again Ivor Cummings, on 9.8.

Spoiler

About Us at 22.00, South America right before this.
Prediction at almost 33:00.

 

[pamojja]

Sebastian Rushworth M.D.

Health and medical information grounded in science

Here’s a graph they don’t want you to see

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see. It shows the share of the tested population with antibodies to covid in Sweden week by week, beginning in the 28th week of 2020 (the first week for which the Swedish Public Health Authority provides data on the share of tests coming back positive).

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

The proportion testing positive for antibodies was 15% in early July. It remained stable for a few weeks, and then started to drop, as we would expect, given that the rate of new infections was very low at the time. Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. I’ve been getting most of my statistics from SVT, the Swedish public broadcaster. They had been providing data on the share with antibodies in Stockholm up to a month or two back, when that information discretely disappeared from their website. I wonder why.

I know some of you will respond that 40% doesn’t mean anything, because the data isn’t taken from a random sample. If all we had was one number, then that would be a valid point. But we don’t just have one number. We have the number for every week stretching back six months. Any bias due to people preferentially getting tested after a respiratory infection that applies now, when 40% are testing positive, also applied three months ago, when 10% were testing positive. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

continue reading here: Here's a graph they don't want you to see - Sebastian Rushworth M.D.

 

[lenora]

Hello @pamojja. There are many graphs and we can almost find anything we want to confirm or deny our point. e.g. I just finished a research report from a well known place and it was stated that there are seven COVID variants. That's a lot, and no, they may not have your/our shore yet, but they're on their way.

This is something that is totally confusing to the medical community, and people at large. I wouldn't rely on one chart, but would question all of them. Take care....Yours, Lenora.

 

[lenora]

We should all make our decision regarding vaccinations. Yours, Lenora

 

[Ecoclimber]

HELPING YOU DECIDE ON VACCINATION OUTCOMES
FIRST UP 1. NOVAVAX

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
· Jan 28

BREAKING—Novavax says its #COVID19 vaccine is 90% effective, but likely only 50% against the #B1351 variant found in South Africa. 50% better than 0%, but clearly we have challenges with the #B1351 mutation. UPDATES COMING. https://nytimes.com/2021/01/28/health

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
THREAD FOR MORE INFO

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354899824370462722

BREAKING—Novavax says its #COVID19 vaccine is 90% effective, but likely only 50% against the #B1351 variant found in South Africa. 50% better than 0%, but clearly we have challenges with the #B1351 mutation. UPDATES COMING.

2) SURPRISING—“Participants were infected with the variant even after they had already had Covid.” This aligns with what South Africa CDC warned last week

3) “we are the first to conduct an efficacy trial — in the face of a changing virus,” said Stanley Erck, CEO of Novavax. He said that researchers expected variants could change the trial results, but “the amount of change has been a bit of a surprise to everyone.”

4) “South Africa trial was relatively small — with just 4,400 volunteers — and was not designed to come up with a precise estimate of how much protection the vaccine provides...

5) “Still, the results were striking enough that the company said it would soon begin testing a new vaccine tailored to protect against the variant from South Africa. “You’re going to have to make new vaccines,” Mr. Erck said.”

6) Moderna also recently tested the #B1351 and also noted significant drop in neutralization in a lab study. But their press release somewhat downplayed it unless you read it carefully. They did not have efficacy data though.

7) Moderna’s press release was cautiously worded—“6-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite reduction, neutralizing titer levels w/ B.1.351 remain above levels expected to be protective.”

8) most worrisome was the recent #b1351 variant data that blood from 48% of people previously recovered from #COVID19 in the 1st 2020 wave in South Africa did not recognize the new #B1351 variant — “complete immune escape”. 90% had lower neutralization.

9) As pointed out by Dr Andersen, this doesn’t change our need to vaccinate as fast as possible, even with some ~50% immunity.

10) Worrisome—First two community transmission cases of the vaccine evading #SARSCoV2 strain #B1351 first seen in South Africa have been detected in South Carolina. No travel history in either cases. #B1352 is the one seen to evade antibodies. #COVID19

11) Psssst... vaccines are still good. They will work. Wanna know something that works well too against all virus strains? #ZeroCovid strategy.

ZERO COVID is the way. New Zealand
PM explains why it was the only way to save lives and prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. It was the decision that made NZ the greatest pandemic conquering nation on Earth.

12) We knew something like this drop in vaccine efficacy for the #b1351 strain was coming when we saw South Africa
CDC made this sobering declaring on reinfection among those with previous immunity & 50% who had no neutralizing activity despite antibodies. Early signals key.

STUNNING—South African’s CDC has made a sobering declaration: “We now know that mutations (K417N & E484K) have allowed #SARSCoV2 to become resistant to antibody neutralization.” “Blood samples from *1/2 tested showed all neutralizing activity* was lost.” https://nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/

13) while the vaccine was 49 percent effective in South Africa, Novavax underscored that when looking only at people not infected with HIV, the efficacy was 60 percent. Better but much lower than 89% in UK (where half got #b117).

14) But if the average in SA is 49%, and HIV negative people had 60% efficacy, then we know HIV positive cases must be much below 49%. Unclear if this HIV difference is significant modifier of the vaccine or just due to chance

A coronavirus vaccine made by Maryland biotech company Novavax proved effective at stopping symptomatic infections in global hot spots where concerning variants are dominant, the company announced Thursday. But warning signs lurked amid those findings: The protective effect of the vaccine was substantially muted in South Africa, where a worrisome virus variant is in wide circulation.
WashingtonPost

 

[Ecoclimber]

2. PFIZER

@DrEricDing

THREAD FOR MORE INFO:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1351233027410718720

BREAKING—new #B117 variant & vaccine data from research lab shows mutations in B117’s spike protein yields a ~3.8x reduction in efficacy of vaccine-generated neutralization antibodies compared to wildtype (WT) #SARSCoV2 strain. 10 of 15 people had >3x lower neutralization.

2) Notably,

@GuptaR_lab studied 15 people who had Pfizer mRNA vaccine against pseudo virus bearing Spike protein w/ mutations in B117 variant (del69/70, del 144/145, N501Y, A570D, P681H, T716I, S982A, D1118H). They found a modest reduction in efficacy

3) paper pending—among 15 individuals with neutralisation activity 3 weeks after the Pfizer mRNA vaccine (immunity has already kicked in), 10 showed >3-fold reduction in efficacy of antibodies against B.1.1.7 mutant.

4) That said, Pfizer previously said their vaccine is still effective against the new variant. But they focused on the 501 mutation, which is just one of many.

Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine appears to work against certain key mutation in variants first found in the UK and South Africa—the 501 mutation. However, another key trouble mutation in South Africa variant has not been tested yet

5) that said, this was a lab experiment against an isolated “pseudo virus” with the mutations seen in the B117 spike protein. It’s not the real thing, and the 3.8x reduction is not the reduction of the vaccine efficacy — just the reduction in the neutralization. Need more data.

7) Crap... we also found blood from 48% of people with prior infection acquired immunity did not seem to even recognize the new #b1351 South African variant with the E484K mutation. “Complete escape” was the term for the 48%. And 90% has some reduced immunity. Crap crap crap.

WORRISOME ON *E484* MUTATION—New study from blood of 44 people infected in 1st wave in S Africa was tested against new #SARSCoV2 variant #B1135 (501Y.V2)—found antibodies from **21 of 44 did not recognize** the new B1125 variant—Almost half!

8) A UK report that suggests the #B117 variant seems to have a higher relative increase in infection attack rates compared to wild type (common strains) for kids 0-9.
B117 increased across all age groups, but larger % in youngest kids.

9) Conflicting study from BioNTech today that suggests the Pfizer vaccine is fine against the #b117 variant. But this flies against the @GuptaR_lab study at the top of this thread

 

[Ecoclimber]

3. JOHNSON&JOHNSON

@DrEricDing
Jan 29

THREAD FOR MORE INFO:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355141560514580482

BREAKING—Single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 72 % effective at protecting against moderate to severe illness in US, 66 % effective in Latin America & 57 % effective in South Africa. It was 85 % effective overall at preventing severe disease. #COVID19

2) Johnson & Johnson is expected to apply for emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration next week. If the review follows the path of two earlier vaccine candidates, the shot could be authorized and available to the public by late February or early March.

3) it is 66% effective overall, which looks lower than the 95% for Pfizer and Moderna—but keep in mind those were done before the emergence of the new variants. We know South Africa variant have a lot of problems with potential vaccine escape. And Brazil variant likely too.


4) Indeed, Johnson & Johnson shot was tested at the height of the pandemic, in areas of the world where the virus had changed in ways that can elude parts of the immune response

5) Moderna hence reported lower efficiency recently for neutralizing the South African variant. It’s even planning a 3rd booster shot. #COVID19

6) Also key, in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, all cases of covid-related hospitalization and death — the outcomes that most people would like to avoid — were among participants who had received placebo shots. Thus that implies 100% efficacy for warding off death

7) The 90% vaccine efficacy for Novavax in the US but 49% in South Africa also attests to this phenomenon that it could be mutations driving lower efficacy in many parts of the world.

8) And Novavax notes lots of reinfection cases in South Africa in their trial. Again South Africa results likely due to the variant because of its known lower efficacy.


9) Let’s step back at get perspective: 85% for severe disease and 100% protection for death— From 1 single shot No follow visits No freezing needed

I’d take that any day

10) Whisper... many scientists have quietly feared and think the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccine would not show 95% efficacy anymore if they were tested today against all the different circulating variants. It’s a reality. So don’t compare no-variant pandemic results to current.

11) There have been some variants of course but the troubling ones have just emerged now. We are in a completely different phase of the pandemic. Let’s do compare hospitalizations and deaths. That is the key. And for all of them, it’s near 100%!

12) The 100% protection against death at 28 days (“immortality” jokingly said), and 100% for severe disease at 49 days, is together huge! And all with just 1 shot and no freezing for 3 months. This is what we need to stop pandemic.

13) Video summary of J&J #COVID19 vaccine: best takeaway is— 85% protection for severe disease 100% for hospitalization and death in 28 days. 1 shot only No freezing Cheap to make

 

[andyguitar]

4) Indeed, Johnson & Johnson shot was tested at the height of the pandemic, in areas of the world where the virus had changed in ways that can elude parts of the immune response

6) Also key, in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, all cases of covid-related hospitalization and death — the outcomes that most people would like to avoid — were among participants who had received placebo shots. Thus that implies 100% efficacy for warding off death

9) Let’s step back at get perspective: 85% for severe disease and 100% protection for death— From 1 single shot No follow visits No freezing needed

I’d take that any day

Looks like a winner to me. One shot. Easy to handle. Effective against at least some of the variants (Probably)