April 25, 2020
Medical updates
- Video: The Californian physician Dr. Dan Erickson described his observations regarding Covid19 in a press conference. Hospitals and intensive care units in California and other states have remained largely empty so far. Based on the respective positive test rates, Dr. Erickson calculates that the lethality rate of Covid19 is currently 0.03% in California, 0.05% in Spain, 0.09% in Sweden and 0.1% in New York State, while the lethality rate of the flu in the USA is around 0.13%. (Note: the positive test rate cannot reflect local „hotspot effects“). The probability of surviving Covid19 without symptoms or with mild symptoms is over 95%. Dr. Erickson reports that doctors from several US states have been „pressured“ to issue death certificates mentioning Covid19, even though they themselves did not agree. Dr. Erickson argues that lockdowns and fear weaken people’s immune system and health. There has already been a marked increase in „secondary effects“ such as alcoholism, depression, suicide, and abuse of children and spouses. Dr Erickson recommends that only the sick and not the healthy or the whole society should be quarantined. A mouthguard only makes sense in acute situations such as in hospital, but not in everyday life, according to Dr. Erickson
- Professor Detlef Krüger, the direct predecessor of the well-known German virologist Christian Drosten at the Charité Clinic in Berlin, explains in a recent interview that Covid19 is „in many respects comparable to the flu“ and „no more dangerous than certain variants of the flu virus“. Professor Krüger considers the „mouth and nose protection discovered by politicians“ to be „actionism“ and a potential „germ-slinger“. At the same time he warns of „massive collateral damage“ caused by the measures taken.
- Swiss pathologists have come to the conclusion that many of the test-positive deceased did not suffer from pneumonia, but had a disorder of the blood vessels and thus of the oxygen exchange in the lungs. This could explain why the ventilation of critical Covid19 patients is often not effective and why patients with existing cardiovascular problems belong to the risk group. In fact, all of the autopsied patients suffered from high blood pressure, a large proportion were severely overweight (obese) and two thirds had pre-damaged coronary arteries.
- The latest figures from Italy show (pp. 12/13) that 60 of almost 17,000 doctors and nurses who tested positive died. This results in a Covid19 lethality rate of less than 0.1% for those under 50, 0.27% for those aged 50 to 60, 1.4% for those aged 60 to 70, and 12.6% for those aged 70 to 80. Even these figures are likely too high, as these are deaths with and not necessarily from corona viruses, and as up to 80% of people remain asymptomatic and some may not have been tested. Overall, however, the values are in line with those from e.g. South Korea and give a lethality rate for the general population in the range of influenza.
- The head of the Italian Civil Defence declared in mid-April that more than 1800 people died in nursing homes in Lombardy, and that in many cases the cause of death was not yet clear. It was already known beforehand that the care of the elderly and nursing homes and, as a result, the entire health care system in parts of Lombardy had collapsed, in part due to fear of the virus and the lockdown.
- The latest figures from Belgium show that there too, just over 50% of all additional deaths occur in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. In 6% of these deaths Covid19 was „confirmed“, in 94% of the deaths it was „suspected“. About 70% of the test-positive persons (employees and residents) showed no symptoms.
- The German vaccination expert Professor Dr. Siegwart Bigl considers the corona protection to be „excessive“. According to Professor Bigl, there is „no pandemic“ (with a particularly high number of deaths), the lockdown was unnecessary and wrong, and the comparison with influenza is „absolutely legitimate“.
- The British Guardian cites new studies according to which air pollution could be a „key factor“ in Covid19 deaths. For example, 80% of deaths in four countries were in the most polluted regions (including Lombardy and Madrid).
- The German newspaper DIE ZEIT focuses on the high vacancy rates in German hospitals, which in some departments are as high as 70%. Even cancer examinations and organ transplants that were not acutely necessary for survival had been cancelled to make room for Covid19 patients, but these have so far been largely absent.
- In Germany, a mask requirement was introduced in public transport and in retail outlets. The president of the World Medical Association, Frank Montgomery, has criticized this as „wrong“ and the intended use of scarves and drapes as „ridiculous“. In fact, studies show that the use of masks in everyday life does not bring measurable benefits to healthy and asymptomatic people, which is why the Swiss infectiologist Dr. Vernazza spoke of a „media hype“. Other critics speak of a symbol of „forced, publicly visible obedience“.
- In 2019, a WHO study found „little to no scientific evidence“ for the effectiveness of measures such as „social distancing“, travel restrictions and lockdowns.
- A German laboratory stated in early April that according to WHO recommendations, Covid19 virus tests are now considered positive even if the specific target sequence of the Covid19 virus is negative and only the more general corona virus target sequence is positive. However, this can lead to other corona viruses (cold viruses) also trigger a false positive test result. The laboratory also explained that Covid19 antibodies are often only detectable two to three weeks after the onset of symptoms. This must be taken into account so that the actual number of people already immune to Covid19 is not underestimated.
- In both Switzerland and Germany, individual politicians have called for „compulsory vaccination against corona“. However, the vaccination against the so-called „swine flu“ of 2009/2010, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage, especially in children, and to claims for damages in the millions.
- Professor Christopher Kuhbandner: About the lack of scientific justification for the corona measures: „The reported figures on new infections very dramatically overestimate the true spread of the corona virus. The observed rapid increase in new infections is almost exclusively due to the fact that the number of tests has increased rapidly over time (see figure below). So, at least according to the reported figures, there was in reality never an exponential spread of the coronavirus. The reported figures on new infections hide the fact that the number of new infections has been decreasing since about early or mid-March.“
Green: Real increase of infected people;
red: increase due to more tests.
Sweden: The media versus reality
Some readers were surprised by the decrease in deaths in Sweden, as most media show a steeply
rising curve. What is the reason for this? Most media show
cumulative figures by date of
reporting, while the Swedish authorities publish the much more meaningful
daily figures by date of
death.
The Swedish authorities always stress that not all newly reported cases have died within the last 24 hours, but many media ignore this (see graph below). Although the latest Swedish figures may still increase somewhat, as in all countries, this does not change the generally declining trend.
In addition, these figures also represent deaths
with and not necessarily
from corona viruses. The average age of death in Sweden is also over 80 years, about 50% of deaths occurred in nursing homes, and the effect on the general population has remained minimal, even though Sweden has one of the
lowest intensive care capacities in Europe.
However, the Swedish government has also been given
new emergency powers due to „corona“ and could still participate in later contact tracing programmes.
Cumulative figures by date of reporting vs. daily figures by date of death. (OWD / FOHM)
The situation in
Great Britain
Deaths in the UK have risen sharply in recent weeks, but are still in the range of the
worst flu epidemics of the last fifty years. In the UK, too,
up to 50% of additional deaths occur in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown.
Moreover,
up to 50% of the additional deaths are said to be non-Covid19 deaths and
up to 25% of the additional deaths occur at home. It is therefore not clear whether the general lockdown is beneficial or in fact detrimental to society at large.
Frasor Nelson, the editor of the British
Spectator,
has claimed that government agencies expect the lockdown to result in up to 150,000 additional deaths in the longer term, significantly more than what Covid19 is expected to cause. Most recently, the case of a 17-year-old singer who took her own life because of the lockdown
became known.
It is striking that England, in contrast to most other countries, also has a significantly higher mortality rate
among 15 to 64-year-olds. This could possibly be due to the frequent cardiovascular preconditions, or it might be caused by the effects of the lockdown.
The
InProportion project has published numerous new graphs that put current UK mortality in relation to previous flu outbreaks and other causes of death. Other websites that critically review the measures are
Lockdown Skeptics and
UK Column.
UK: Weekly all-cause mortality (InProportion)
Switzerland: Excess mortality well below strong flu waves
- A first serological study by the University of Geneva concluded that at least six times more people in the canton of Geneva had contact with Covid19 than previously thought. This means that the lethality of Covid19 in Switzerland also falls well below one percent, while official sources still speak of up to 5%.
- Even in the most severely affected canton of Ticino, almost half of the additional deaths occurred in nursing homes that do not benefit from the general lockdown.
- In Switzerland, 1.85 million people or over a third of all employees have already been registered for short-time work. The economic costs are estimated at 32 billion for the period from March to June.
- Infosperber: Corona: The parroting of the media. „Major media outlets are hiding the fact that they rely on opaque data for Covid-19 numbers.“
- Ktipp: Swiss authorities: Almost all numbers ‚without guarantee‘. „This year fewer under-65s died in the first 14 weeks than in the last five years. Among the over-65s, the number was also relatively low.“
The following graph shows that overall mortality in Switzerland in the first quarter of 2020 was in the normal range and that by mid-April it was still around 2000 people below the flu wave of 2015. 50% of deaths occurred in
nursing homes that do not benefit from a lockdown.
Overall, around 75% of the additional deaths occurred
at home, while hospitals and intensive care units remain
heavily underutilized and numerous operations have been cancelled. In Switzerland, too, the very serious question thus arises as to whether the „lockdown“ may have cost more lives than it saved.
Cumulated deaths compared to expected value, 2010 to 2020 (BFS)
Political updates and rest at site..
A fascinating subject! But I digress...
