Deep phenotyping of post-infectious myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome

Marylib

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Bateman Horne Center Statement:

"Since the recent release of the NIH intramural publication detailing findings from the ME/CFS Inpatient Study, there has been a whirlwind of impassioned commentary.

While we harbor mixed sentiments about the paper, we've committed professionally to maintaining an open mind, clear perspective, and collaborative spirit with all stakeholders contributing to the field. Our nonprofit endeavors to embody these principles as well.

Not too distant in the past, ME/CFS was largely overlooked by the NIH. However, there has been a notable shift in this stance.

Over the past decade, we've witnessed significant strides, including the establishment of a dedicated NIH home for ME/CFS within NINDS, two evidence-based literature reviews, a new clinical case definition, five years of extramural funding for collaborative research centers, a heightened recognition of patient experiences, and the integration of ME/CFS knowledge and language across DHHS.

Plans were set for an ambitious intramural inpatient study of ME/CFS, which commenced enrollment in 2016. Unfortunately, the study's completion was derailed by the pandemic, achieving less than half of the projected enrollment. Nonetheless, the extensive data analyzed by over 75 scientists culminated in the recently published data-dense paper.

We are grateful to the volunteers and research staff whose dedication facilitated data collection; and to the patients who risked their energy envelopes, their time, and their health to serve this comprehensive study, which will serve as a foundation for future studies.

But, no study is perfect. In our opinion, this one fell short by not including enough patients who are moderately to severely ill. That happens frequently in ME/CFS research, and was probably amplified by the travel, rigor and duration of the study.

Studying only early-stage, post-infection ME/CFS, may also be an important reason the findings don’t fully reflect the larger population of people chronically ill with ME/CFS.

We were particularly dismayed by use of the term “effort preference” as an explanation for the origin of fatigue when the authors subsequently go on to suggest that their data and other published data substantiate dysregulation of autonomic nervous system functioning and changes in metabolic pathways that could more readily be implicated, if not fully understood, in contributing to overall fatigue.

We were, additionally, disappointed at the lack of emphasis or evaluation placed on post-exertional malaise in this particular study. As we all know, PEM (or PESE) is a distinct and debilitating physiological phenomena that differentiates ME/CFS from other fatiguing illnesses and that can be measured (approximately) via 2-day CPET testing. PEM is not a mere “discomfort” or “symptom” for patients, and its representation and implication as a subjective symptom in this study is not in accordance with our data or practice.

Additionally, we must recognize that the pandemic has significantly augmented our understanding of post-viral syndromes compared to almost a decade ago when the ME/CFS inpatient protocol was conceived.

Fortunately, apart from the inpatient study, there's an exciting initiative underway known as the NIH ME/CFS Research Roadmap.

This is a year long project to bring together teams of scientists, clinicians, and people with lived experience, to brainstorm the most important aspects of ME/CFS, review the literature, and recommend what might be the “roadmap” ahead for ME/CFS research, especially research that can lead to effective treatments.

We appreciate the time and energy you invested in reading our message.

Please understand that we genuinely care and are diligently striving to advance timely and accurate diagnoses and treatments for pwME, long COVID, and related illnesses.

Yours truly,
Lucinda Bateman, MD & Brayden Yellman, MD
 

Marylib

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@Quilp - I thought of you (and others on a thread you started) when I read the statement above - I copy/pasted from an email I got. The 'dismayed' and 'disappointed' wording may have been a polite way (and politically aware) of two ME doctors saying: "WTF??"
You can read the statement on their website now:
https://batemanhornecenter.org/me-cfs-inpatient-study-findings-bhcs-statement/
I guess the year-long NIH ME/CFS Research Roadmap will be another dead end, in terms of NIH. I hope I am wrong, but...
 
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PhoenixDown

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There are at least hundreds of thousands, if not millions of patients who for the first few years don't even know they have ME/CFS and very clearly have a preference and ability to push through,

There are other issues here with patient selection beyond just PEM, they were happy with CDC 1994 as a criteria
If we reject the CDC 1994 criteria then we must also reject the (pre Covid) 250,000 ME patients in the UK figure because that's based upon the upper range (0.4% or 1 in 250) of the CDC 1994 criteria.

According to the 2014 London criteria (Co-Written by Charles Shepherd) ME affects 1 per 1000 (0.1%). The UK's Population in 2021 according to Google was 67.33 million so that makes 67,330 (pre Covid) ME patients,
 

Murph

:)
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The effort preference thing is really vital to understand. it was just a simple computer game. But the only way they got that data to signifigance was by excluding one participant.

That participant is healthy volunteer F. I'm going to argue HV F played their silly game close to perfectly and should not have been excluded.

QUICK EXPLANATION
There are 50 rounds. in each round there are:

- two things to know : rewards and probabilities
- a choice to make. play easy or hard. Easy has half the reward of hard, so if you choose hard you may get as much as $4.12 but if you choose easy you may get $2.06. Rewards vary by round.
- the game is played (press button x times in x seconds to "fill up" bar on screen. It's 98 times in 21 seconds in hard mode, 21 times in 7 seconds on easy mode.).
-reward is delivered or not delivered based on the probability specified earlier. Probabilities vary by round. In the 50 rounds, the probabilities are 88%, 50% and 12%.

At the end of the 50 rounds you get some money depending on how you played. But here's the thing. they won't give you money for every game you win. They give you money for TWO of your wins, CHOSEN FROM AMONG YOUR WINS.

If you win only high-reward rounds played on hard mode, (e.g. you get $4.12 your reward at the end will be chosen at random from a group that includes only big rewards).

SIMPLE ANALOGY TO EXPLAIN WINNING STRATEGY
Imagine a basket with balls in it. On each ball is written a sum of money. YOu can choose how many balls to put in and the amount of money written on the ball. The people running the game will draw two balls from the basket and give you the amount of money written on the ball.

You can choose to put in two balls with $4.12 written on them. Or 50 balls with a range of values, most of which are lower than $4.12. Which is more profitable? Putting in two balls with $4.12. That way you know only high value balls will come out when it's time to win.

STRATEGY FOLLOWED BY HVF

Healthy volunteer F is perfectly capable of winning the game. He is a 21 year old male and in the four practice rounds he presses the button to fill up the bar easily.

But when the game starts for real, he changes strategy. He starts deliberately losing most rounds. What is going on?

Here's a chart of the number of times HVF pushes the button. It shows that most of the time they push the button just enough times to deliberately lose. The times they lose are outlined in red. TWhen they want to win, however, they do so. Outlined in green.
Screenshot 2024-03-01 at 11.51.10 am.png


What is the reward on offer for those wins? Is there evidence that healthy volunteer F is playing an optimal strategy?

The next chart is the same as the above, but with added information. The yellow dots show the reward for playing the hard task in that round. Higher yellow dots are higher rewards. And if the yellow dot is big and has a number printed on it, it says HVF got that reward. He won that round AND the probability ran in his favour. So that round counts as a metaphorical ball in the basket. At the end, HVF has six balls in the basket.
The graph tells us that he plays to win only when the value of the reward is high. when the value of the reward is low he does tap the button but stops before notching a win (because he doesn't want that ball in the basket).

Screenshot 2024-03-01 at 11.54.25 am.png


Light blue bars are every time he chose to play hard. Every time he chose to play on hard mode he won. Green outlines are times he won. After the first four trials he only won one game on easy mode, in round 23. This round has probability allocated of 12%, so the chance of him adding a metaphorical ball to the basket was low. And sure enough the reward wasn't paid in round 23(yellow dot is small not big) Why did he do it? idk. maybe he got bored.

CONCLUSION

If the game can be understood and played strategically, but that causes your data to be eradicated from the trial, the game is not a valid measure of anything. The paper should be retracted.

I'm still working on making this really easy to understand. It is really important. I want it to be understood widely. Please let me know if what I'm saying makes sense to you.
 
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Marylib

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I'm still working on making this really easy to understand. I want it to be understood widely. Please let me know if what I'm saying makes sense to you.
@Murph - thanks for your kind efforts in making it easier to understand. Perhaps I speak for others in addition to myself - but my brain is so messed up, I can't begin to understand. But please, keep on - for the sake of those here who may not be as messed up as I am.
 

Atlas

"And the last enemy to be destroyed is death."
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@Murph nice work, yup makes sense.

Tldr as I understood it: there's no incentive at all in the game to win more than 2 profitable games, because only 2 wins will actually be paid out.

So the only incentive to win more than 2 out of 50 games is boredom (if one understands the game). Nobody is going to repeatedly push buttons out of boredom unless they have surplus energy.

And I assume the volunteers weren't specifically told to try to win as many games as possible either?

Even if they were, it wouldn't show anything other than that people who are already pathologically exhausted are worse at playing mind-numbingly boring games.
 
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Murph

:)
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@Murph nice work, yup makes sense.

Tldr as I understood it: there's no incentive at all in the game to win more than 2 profitable games, because only 2 wins will actually be paid out.

So the only incentive to win more than 2 out of 50 games is boredom (if one understands the game). Nobody is going to repeatedly push buttons out of boredom unless they have surplus energy.
yes!!


And I assume the volunteers weren't specifically told to try to win as much as possible either?
not sure about that. More detail on exactly what they were told would be very useful!
 

Atlas

"And the last enemy to be destroyed is death."
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Even with the MRI findings, it makes no sense to conclude to call it what they did from the drop in activity. Seems far more likely that the muscles are sending realtime feedback to the brain telling it to slow down to prevent further damage to mitochondrially exhausted cells.

Or that the muscles just literally can't keep up so the drop in brain activity follows the reality after it becomes apparent. Not the other way around..
 
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CONCLUSION

If the game can be understood and played strategically, but that causes your data to be eradicated from the trial, the game is not a valid measure of anything. The paper should be retracted.

I'm still working on making this really easy to understand. It is really important. I want it to be understood widely. Please let me know if what I'm saying makes sense to you.
Thanks Murph for explaining that in such detail.

I can’t see how something that is essentially a game of strategy can give any meaningful insights about a physical illness.

Removing HV F makes the results seem over-engineered. ‘When we take out the person who figured out an optimal strategy for the game, then everyone else’s results show us something meaningful about MECFS, and that’s effort preference…’ How???

What’s the justification for removing HV F from the analysis? Because they used a strategy? Didn’t the people with ME use a strategy too, ie pacing? Cos the way I see it (without having the brainpower to actually read the study, sorry), isn’t it:
HV F: strategic approach to game - money optimisation
ALL OTHER HVs: no strategy
ALL PWME: strategic approach to game: pacing.

How can you interpret the results without regard to strategy to explain anything interesting about our physical illness?
 

RYO

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@Murph
Are you able to look at supplemental data from NIH study and determine if they measured IL-6 levels in serum and/or CSF before and after exercise? If yes, any difference in IL-6 levels in CSF between ME and healthy controls?
 
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But the only way they got that data to signifigance was by excluding one participant.
Regardless of the p-value they ended up with or wether they a valid justification to eliminate that participant's data, it doesn't alter the fact that their methodology was inherently flawed as you just can't compare the rewards systems of healthy controls and that of people that have learned not to push themselves beyond a certain exertion threshold, as you alluded to in a previous post.

If the game can be understood and played strategically, but that causes your data to be eradicated from the trial, the game is not a valid measure of anything. The paper should be retracted.
There are so many issues with this paper, from the awfully weird cohort of patients, to flawed methodology, over reliance on pairwise correlations, leading to a subsequent p-value fishing expedition, and interpretation of data that only seemed to reflect the lead author's prior beliefs about the disease... I honestly agree that it should be retracted, but I really doubt it's gonna happen.
 

Dakota15

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FWIW, I met with the staff of my Senator today about my concerns of this study and how these taxpayer dollars are being spent.

The health legislative aid of the staff is reaching out to the NINDS Office of Science Policy and Planning contact now to address the concerns shared as a next step.

I’m sure NINDS & NIH will side-step, but had to try.
 
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@Murph
Are you able to look at supplemental data from NIH study and determine if they measured IL-6 levels in serum and/or CSF before and after exercise? If yes, any difference in IL-6 levels in CSF between ME and healthy controls?
On supplementary data 17, IL-6 levels in serum does appear, but there's no information on when they measured, ie before or after exercise, and it's not statistically significant. I don't think that result is too relevant, though, because a) the small sample size of the study makes for comparisons with low statistical power, meaning that the difference between groups would have to be pretty large to be significant, which is further exacerbated by the fact that they had to correct their p-values for multiple comparisons, and b) I'm not at all convinced that the cohort of patients selected is representative of the broader ME population (btw, 8 candidates were excluded on the basis of inflammatory disorder, 46 because they had onset over 5 years prior, 16 were excluded because they were too sick to travel, another 5 because they couldn't peddle a bicycle, 13 dropped out...)
 

RYO

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It seems both ME and LC patients have issues with tryptophan metabolism. Both also have dysbiosis and other common symptoms. Dr Maureen Hansen suspects a significant portion of ME patients may have chronic EV in their gut. LC patients may have persistent SARS COV2 antigens in their gut. Maybe there is a common end pathway for portion of both patient cohorts. Is it HHV6 or EBV reactivation that leads to immune dysregulation and chronic neuro inflammation? Disruption of GI barrier and or BBB barrier? Perhaps T cell sequencing will uncover persistent antigen that is similar in both ME and LC patients.
 

Murph

:)
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1,803
@Murph
Are you able to look at supplemental data from NIH study and determine if they measured IL-6 levels in serum and/or CSF before and after exercise? If yes, any difference in IL-6 levels in CSF between ME and healthy controls?
Screenshot 2024-03-12 at 1.00.53 pm.png


They did measure it. That last number, the .74... suggests levels were not statistically important in this small sample. It's the Varible Importance in Prediction and only scores over 1 count as significant.
 

RYO

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View attachment 53531

They did measure it. That last number, the .74... suggests levels were not statistically important in this small sample. It's the Varible Importance in Prediction and only scores over 1 count as significant.
I wish we had IL-6 in CSF data from a larger study looking at moderate to severe patients.
 

Oliver3

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Couldn't we say that having say Parkinson's or renal failure may create an inability to choose to do what you want to do and possibly involves similar mechanisms in the brain!!

Murphy I never realized the size of your brain.
I'll really have to lean into that to understand it.
I'm sure you're right tho!!
 

SlamDancin

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570
Even with the MRI findings, it makes no sense to conclude to call it what they did from the drop in activity. Seems far more likely that the muscles are sending realtime feedback to the brain telling it to slow down to prevent further damage to mitochondrially exhausted cells.

Or that the muscles just literally can't keep up so the drop in brain activity follows the reality after it becomes apparent. Not the other way around..
I’m fairly sure I have a muscular dystrophy underlying my CFS but even without definitive proof of that my muscles were stretched, tortured and contractured to the point that I think it’s undeniable that the muscle pathology was informing the fatigue, and not the other way around.
 
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Marylib

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ME Research UK - part one of their reaction
https://www.meresearch.org.uk/nih-me-cfs-deep-phenotyping-study-part-1-overview/

"The parts of the paper related to fatigue and effort preference are difficult to understand, and a lay summary from the researchers explaining the relevance of findings and the reasoning behind their conclusions would therefore be useful. Furthermore, it would be helpful to know the justification for conducting EEfRT – i.e. what hypothesis were they testing, and why did they choose to use this novel behavioural measure that does not feature in other ME/CFS research?"
 
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