XMRV stock picks . . .

[Levi]

Tired of waiting and fretting over the impending release of the Lo/Alter PNAS paper? Want a nice distraction with good karmic overtones? Of course, after tons of medical expenses and inability to work consistently, the pool of CFS patients is not teeming with well-heeled investors. So this is not for us.

But, even though they were probably not motivated by altruistic intent, the WSJ and business world that supports them has been invaluable in providing in depth coverage of the XMRV story and the embargoed Lo/Alter paper. The CFS community owes them a karmic debt. We can repay part of that by doing the research into which pharmaceutical and biotech companies, or any other business model for that matter, stands to profit in the case that XMRV/CFS/ME microbialists get a home run or even a grand slam with the Lo/Alter paper.

Hillary Johnson has already long ago made the association with CFS and the profits of UNUM, a large disability insurer that has a history of denying claims from insured with CFS/ME. That stock would probably go down. http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Unum_Group_(UNM)

Which pharma controlling anti-retrovirals would be positively affected? Can you think of a creative scenario for profit? Diagnostic tests to protect the blood supply? What companies at we looking at?

 

[muffin]

Actually, I too thought about this when reading the WSJ articles. Which pharmas, etc would stand to benefit from XMRV? Which stocks would I pick to put a few bets on? IF XMRV turns out to be the "next big thing" and is associated with CFIDS, other diseases (MS, Autism, etc) and Cancers (esp. lymphomas, leukemias, and so on), then you have some real horses in this race. Which will make it out of the starting gate? Which will really bring in the big pay off from this new deadly virus????

 

[usedtobeperkytina]

I have wondered the same. I would have loved to see Amy look into that, since it is a financial newspaper.

Tina

 

[acer2000]

Well...

Merck makes "Raltegravir" (MRK), Hemispherx makes Ampligen (HEB) and their stock is dirt cheap, Gilead Sciences makes Tenofovir (GILD), AZT is likely generic. As for testing companies I am not too familiar with them. And of course there may be drugs that inhibit XMRV that aren't on the market yet, but already went through safety trials from other companies. Glaxo Smith Kline has been mentioned a few times as wanting to fund an XMRV trial, so maybe they have something on the shelf. Then there are the immunomodulators or non standard therapies that might be sitting in a lab that we don't know about...

An unrelated fact about tenofovir is: In July 2010, a vaginal gel containing tenofovir, a reverse transcriptase inhibitor, was shown to reduce HIV infection rates by 39 percent in a trial conducted in South Africa. So it potentially has market beyond people already diagnosed with HIV (and/or XMRV) as a preventative tool.

 

[urbantravels]

I have been told there are a fair number of antiretrovirals "on the shelf" that didn't prove effective against HIV but could well work against other retrovirii. Whose shelves, though, I do not know.

 

[usedtobeperkytina]

I want to invest in the company that will get the FDA approved test.

Major bucks there. Think of all the people wanting to get tested. Think of how many illnesses have fatigue. Think of how happy doctors will be that they will have a test to say "yes" or "no" on the question the patient asks. "Do I have this?"

Tina

 

[Hope123]

Well...

Merck makes "Raltegravir" (MRK), Hemispherx makes Ampligen (HEB) and their stock is dirt cheap, Gilead Sciences makes Tenofovir (GILD), AZT is likely generic. As for testing companies I am not too familiar with them. And of course there may be drugs that inhibit XMRV that aren't on the market yet, but already went through safety trials from other companies. Glaxo Smith Kline has been mentioned a few times as wanting to fund an XMRV trial, so maybe they have something on the shelf. Then there are the immunomodulators or non standard therapies that might be sitting in a lab that we don't know about...

An unrelated fact about tenofovir is: In July 2010, a vaginal gel containing tenofovir, a reverse transcriptase inhibitor, was shown to reduce HIV infection rates by 39 percent in a trial conducted in South Africa. So it potentially has market beyond people already diagnosed with HIV (and/or XMRV) as a preventative tool.

Tenofovir is also interesting because my primary, who has been a primary for HIV patients since the 1980s, tells me that it is also being tested as a preventive medicine (the pill form) for people at high risk for HIV at the moment. So on the one hand, like all drugs, people should be wary of side effects but on the other hand, that speaks somewhat to T's safety in that they are already testing it on people without disease.

 

[Leitwolf]

Just one week ago I posted that idea on a german health board:

http://www.symptome.ch/vbboard/chro...s-muedigkeitssyndrom-investmentstrategie.html

I think this could be done best as a speculation effort from hedge funds. Not just UNUM, but a large number of health/disability insurers will be into trouble when the news over the XMRV pandemic spreads. A hedge fund (or a consortium of funds) could go short on that whole insurance industry, awaiting billion dollar profits. Then all they need to do is to trigger the avalanche by putting just a small fraction of their investment, lets say one or two billion dollars, into XMRV research and awareness. That could be flanked by support for class action against those insurance companies, making the scenario even gloomier.

From an economic perspective that whole CFS drama is just plain market failure. Lewsuits or speculation are both means to overcome market failure.

 

[coxy]

Yer it would be great to get shares in whatever company gets the number 1 drug to treat xmrv, who do you reckon it will be?

 

[Chris]

Hi; isn't Abbott Diagnostics involved already in developing the new test for XMRV? or did they just express interest? I know I have seen the name in this connection, but can't just now recall exactly the context. Chris

 

[Hope123]

[General disclaimer:

Investing in singles stocks is risky so for people who are not financially stable and able to lose the amount they put in entirely, don't invest in a single company/ stock. Not a good idea to buy on margin either.]

For those interested in reading about shorting the market, I've heard the book 'The Big Short" about betting against the US housing market is a fascinating read. In fact, some people have made a fair amount against Hemispherix, the Ampligen maker, in the past.

 

[urbantravels]

It's all harmless as fantasy baseball; no, I wouldn't make any real investments unless money were no object to me. It's much cheaper entertainment to buy a $1 lottery ticket now and again.

 

[mojoey]

The cheapness of a stock has nothing to do with its price in isolation. Hemispherx Biopharma is only $0.48 but please don't think that makes the stock cheap. Not only has the company been in negative earnings territory forever, but the book value per share of the company (total worth of all the company's assets) is $0.44. That means that even at such a low price, it's priced more than everything the company owns. In fact, the company is highly overvalued by every measure.

Many people have gotten burned by speculating on this company with despicable management. If Carter ever gets replaced with a decent CEO and ampligen becomes FDA-approved, that's the time to reconsider its value. Until then, it's a pure gamble and in the long run, the house always win.

 

[urbantravels]

Or somebody could acquire them, and Ampligen, and take their sleazy management out of the equation. That would probably be the best outcome.

 

[mojoey]

Hopefully a company NOT selling HIV drugs. What's the point in investing in clinical trials for ampligen when they can fatten the HAART cash cow without the R&D costs?

 

[JT1024]

Abbott Laboratories has a huge interest since it provides huge blood centers with high volume testing equipment for the blood supply. I've posted elsewhere about a presentation by John Hackett of Abbott at the CROI in February. Check into Abbott's "Prism" analyzer. It is used in 30 countries to screen blood supplies for HIV, HepB, HepC, etc.

Since XMRV has been linked to prostate cancer, I'm sure testing will eventually become routine in that "market" as well. There will be such a huge demand for testing if linkages are shown between XMRV and CFS, Autism, Atypical MS and others. Biotech companies will be want to develop their own tests or license the technology from another.

Years ago, I used to follow Yahoo Financials for a company I used to work for. I knew a lot of insider information and I was amazed at what I could find on Yahoo. That may no longer be the case but it is worth a look into online financial communities discussing Abbott. Where ARUP is doing a study on XMRV, thye are another huge testing lab that may be publicly traded. Not sure... I'll have to check!

Time to snoop!

ETA: I think I need to find another word besides "huge"....

 

[xrayspex]

I like this thread. An aside though, I was appalled last year when I learned how some dude was shorting hemispherex like 10 years ago and giving propaganda about it to wallstreet journal and harassing patients who needed it, made me realize just how heartless our money system is, its not at all about making sure the right things happen to help people.
but hey, if we can make a buck off of them also helping people thats the best.

 

[Levi]

XMRV Stock tip; RSF Pharma

http://hepatitiscnewdrugs.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010emerging-treatments-and-best.html

John W. Mellors, MD, has disclosed that he is a consultant for Gilead Sciences, Merck, and RFS Pharma; received grant/research support from Merck; and is a stockholder in RFS Pharma.

This is a very volatile company, accused of providing sub-standard drugs, CEO recently replaced, etc. Don't invest money you don't mind losing, however, an interesting one to watch.

 

[mojoey]

RFS hasn't gone public yet. I believe John Mellors owns stock options.

Another speculative stock is cerus corporation. Some may recall they hooked up with WPI to successfully inactivate XMRV in the blood supply using their patented system combining UVA light and amotosalen HCL (a form of psoralen). They are receiving heavy orders in Europe now, and you can bet that if there is a public scare about XMRV in the blood supply their contracts will skyrocket. Again this is purely speculative, as the stock fundamentals suck toes.

 

[Elisa]

Hi All,

Great topic...here's an interesting piece!

A Little Stock That Could be a Big Mover
Biomedical company CERS could pop on retrovirus XMRV news

September 3, 2010 | By Michael Shulman, Editor, Short-Side Trader


http://www.investorplace.com/stock-picks/cerus-corporation-cers-could-move-on-xmrv-news.html


Elisabeth