Kurt
Kurt, when I was first told the news, I thought, Well, another opportunistic virus.
But another CFSer said this virus is different. So I looked into it. And so it is. This virus logically explains all the other studies on viruses. Not saying it is the cause, genetics, other viruses, and many other things, including stress may contribute to the ultimate abyss of illness we experience.
But this is more likely to be the key player.
Addressing your points one by one:
Thomas Edison. Yes, his first lightbulb was not such a great thing, unless of course except it was the first of its kind. Crude in its infancy, it still was a beginning that ultimately changed the world. The WPI study may be just as baby-like, but it is a birth that may just change our world.
I absolutely agree that hope based on hype will likely lead to disappointment. We must use our reasoning abilities and set aside the emotional desires.
As to your reference to prostate cancer patients not having CFS... Well, I don't know if that is true. First off, the prostate cancer patients showing positive were a subgroup with very aggressive cancer and the Rnase dysfunction in the immune system. Could these men have CFS, but their cancer doctors attributed their symptoms to the immune system problem or the cancer, or the cancer treatment? So not all people with prostate cancer have the virus. In fact, the study showed only 27% of the cancer patients tested did. So they certainly couldn't put a cause link reasoning to that study. But in CFS, we are talking 98% CFSers compared to 4% of controls. Completely different results. So just because prostate cancer patients don't seem to have CFS, doesn't mean XMRV is not a key player in developing CFS. Now, if 98% of prostate cancer patients had XMRV, then maybe the reasoning would be different. But even then, the prostate cancer patients could have CFS (mild, medium or severe) and it not be diagnosed. There may be many possible causes of prostate cancer. If your father does not have the very aggressive form of prostate cancer and the RNase abnormality, then I wouldn't expect he would show any signs of having XMRV or XAND or CFS. He is not in that 27%. It is possible, likely and supported by evidence that XMRV is a lot more important factor in CFS than in prostate cancer.
I understand your point about too much hope and not enough caution. I have been reading Osler's Web. And I am at the point of HHV-6 discovery. I see that they thought it was the answer. And the disappointment came later. For those patients who experienced that, I understand your hesitation. I did not experience that. I got sick in 2006, plummeted, although likely had been gradually getting sick for years before that. But I don't blame the veterans for holding off on the excitement. By the same token, though, could those veterans also be blinded by their previous disappointments that they can't see the evidence is stronger in this case? The boy who cried wolf so many times made it so the towns people never believed him. But remember, one time the boy cried wolf and there actually was a wolf. Also, Thomas Edison had many failures. But eventually he did succeed. How many dismissed Thomas Edison when he came up with his new invention after so many failures? I just read he did 10,000 experiments on a possible lightbulb until he found the one that worked. Each failure brought him closer to success. So whereas you believe the need for a hope is influencing people's ability to see the evidence clearly, I say that possibly past disappointments may be influencing some to not see the evidence clearly.
I think we need to look at XMRV finding on its own evidence and use reasoning on what we already know about CFS to draw conclusions, if we even want to draw conclusions. Of course, no matter our conclusions, more studies will show what is true and false, in time. With the discoveries in the last two decades, which many put hope in but led to disappointment, we were in fact coming to understand CFS more and it was leading us to success, eventually. I don't know if there are more filaments to try out. WPI may have just turned on the first lightbulb. We don't know yet.
We do not have just one small study. WPI study was verified by tests at NCI and Cleveland Clinic. I doubt it would have been published in the Science Journal had it been just one study by WPI. Also, the study involved a comparitively high number of individuals for it to be a first study. Usually first studies are 40-80 patients. This had 101 and 218 controls. Dr. Coffin, the retrovirus expert, commented that as a first study goes, it is very impressive. When he was asked what other explanations could explain the study results, Coffin listed off a few but said each was unlikely.
As for Mikovitz, while it is true she is not a retrovirus expert, her research experience is in viruses. She was one of the doctors in a published study of Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus. This is what she says of her experience: My background is in virus caused cancers. My training for over 22 years at the NCI was in how viruses dysregulate the immune system and cause disease cancer."
I do agree that science is two steps forward and one step back. But I do believe we can say XMRV is important to CFS, given the nature of the virus and the prevalence in patients in the first study. But there is no certainty of any other conclusions.
I am not as much excited about the activity and hope of the patients as a result of this discovery. But I am excited at the response of the research community. I read that Mikovitz gave a talk in Portugal on October 19 to a cytokeine conference. She said she got an applause before she said a word. Quest and Labcorps is interested. 75 researchers met last week to form collaborations. The interest went from 4% to 95% (I couldn't resist.). Retrovirus specialists are interested. When Mikovitz met with the doctors privately before the study publication, she said mouths fell open. So my excitement is that this has turned the page in putting us on the map in the scientific / research world. Whatever the answer is, it will come faster now.
Tina