Using mathematical models, publicly available data, patient-led research, and the published natural histories of other post-infection illnesses, specifically myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/ CFS), Solve M.E. estimates the prevalence and cost of Long Covid on adult Americans, presented here. Most importantly, these estimates differentiate between persons with milder symptoms and those experiencing disability or inability to work. While noting limitations of population and serology data, including under-reporting and gender bias, these mathematical models and analyses were developed with a specific emphasis on the impacts of this mass disabling event on American labor markets and labor shortages. Among the key findings, our models estimate:
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While the overwhelming scale of COVID-19 and its estimated impacts on the labor force are the focus of this analysis, it is important to note that prior to the current pandemic, there was and remains an existing group of people who experience the long-term impacts post-infection diseases. These conditions include ME/CFS, which was already costing the US economy up to $51 billion annually2 and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), which costs 51% of patients over $10,000 or more,3 prior to the exponential growth caused by Long Covid. These should serve as a sobering reminder and a call to action to urgently address this looming public health crisis.
