I also find it odd that one of the main examples used is breast cancer ... and it's well-known that catching cancer early is extremely important, yet there's still the insistence that early diagnosis is not helpful.
I agree with the rest of your post, and I can tell you where they are getting this, but I don't know how helpful the information actually is.
With the technology we have now, doctors are not sure about some of the breast cancers we are able to find, thus treating, whether all of then require treatment. Some might grow very slowly.
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2012/10October/Pages/Does-breast-cancer-screening-do-more-harm-than-good.aspx
one literature review found:
Based on the evidence available, the panel estimated that for every 10,000 women invited to screening from the age of 50 for 20 years:
- 681 breast cancers will be diagnosed
- 129 of these diagnoses will be overdiagnosed
- 43 deaths from breast cancer will be prevented
Therefore, for every death prevented, there are estimated to be three cases of overdiagnosis.
How they know which is which, I don't know. Some breast cancers grow slowly.
Most people have cancer about 100 times during their lives without knowing it, and their immune system can manage it, but I don't know if that would always be visible on imaging.
I am not sure how they know for sure what's overdiagnosis from a literature review, when the doc did not seem to know at the time of treatment. That seems a bit sketchy to me.
If they were that sure, doctors would be able to tell the patient, it's probably safe to watch and wait, but it's your risk so it's up to you (some patients would indeed decide not to treat, and some would want to treat anyway, just depends on which risk looked worse to them).
If they are not that sure, they should probably not be telling everyone
x definite amount is overdiagnosis.