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"Scientific method: Statistical errors" (Nature, 2014) On problems with p-values and ways forward

Dolphin

Senior Member
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These are sticky concepts, but some statisticians have tried to provide general rule-of-thumb conversions (see 'Probable cause'). According to one widely used calculation5, a P value of 0.01 corresponds to a false-alarm probability of at least 11%, depending on the underlying probability that there is a true effect; a P value of 0.05 raises that chance to at least 29%.
If I'm understanding the figures in another paper correctly (the one directly cited by that passage is pay-to-read), the probability of a false-alarm with a p-value of 0.10 is around 44%.