Review paper: 'exercise therapy for chronic fatigue syndrome'

alex3619

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To be 'fair' - most of these articles reviewed are AIUI oxford criteria, you simply can't change them to not oxford.
Yet the Oxford criteria are not properly validated. To use common language, the criteria are bogus. No study using bogus criteria has any basis being in a Cochrane review, and should be passed over.

This is rubber stamp EBM at its worst.
 

Tom Kindlon

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Barry53

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Alternative link to the full text including comments by Robert Courtney and me (Tom Kindlon):
https://www.dropbox.com/s/koehut6iw2bm9v5/Larun_et_al-2017-The_Cochrane_Library.pdf?dl=0
Too much for me to digest the whole thing, but what stood out clear as day to me, even before reading the comments (which pick up on it anyway of course) is that every single study included, has the inevitable high risk of bias through lack of blinding, the "justification" seeming to be that being as blinding is not possible ... so let's just not worry about it. Combined with the subjective outcome measures.

Feels akin to saying "Yes, with this design of car it it is only possible to have extremely vague/imprecise steering, especially being there is no steering wheel but instead you have to shout 'Left a bit', 'Right a bit', etc. But given we couldn't think of a way to make it any better, you will be fine to drive it down the motorway OK."
 

anciendaze

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I'm going to bring up a subject that has pretty well vanished from discussion, though it was certainly a topic early on. The proposal that got them funding included measuring total patient activity using actimeters to see how this changed during and after therapy. This, being a real objective measure, was made secondary to subjective responses on questionnaires, and later dropped entirely, after the devices were purchased.

There is one aspect of the proposed experiment which seems to have been lost in the shuffle: if you don't know a patient's total activity before and during therapy you have no idea if they are displacing activity to participate in the program, as happened in other studies. It is possible the premise that GET involved an increase in activity was never met. Patients may not have been experiencing an increase in exercise at all, merely a shift in how they spent a limited energy budget.

What I'm getting at here is not that they don't know if total activity increased as a result of therapy, which is a good separate question, it is that they don't know if these therapies even represented an increase in patient exercise. If some patients displaced activity to participate, while others did not, the number of patients actually subject to the experimental protocol was smaller than it appears. If all patients in the GET group made the same total expenditure of energy during therapy as patients in other groups there was no experiment at all, apart from exhortation.

This should be a concern in a scientific paper, even if the statistical results were not already so weak as to allow all positive results to be determined by a handful of patients selected from a huge pool of potential patients. I've said before that absolute numbers of responding individuals were so small that modest diagnostic errors putting a few patients with real psychological problems in with a larger number of patients with a physiological problem could account for everything. Some of the same authors published the claim that other NHS doctors made diagnostic errors 30% of the time w.r.t. CFS, while implicitly claiming zero diagnostic error for themselves. I would expect this to provoke outrage from maligned professionals.

Aside from those patients deliberately excluded as having physiological illness, we have very little evidence to back the tacit claim that the cohort of CFS patients they were dealing with, including those who were not included in the study, had uniform diagnoses. With the concern I voice above we are also left wondering how many of those in the study were actually exposed to graded total activity. If you don't even know what went into an experiment, how can you make sense of what came out?
 

Alvin2

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I'm going to bring up a subject that has pretty well vanished from discussion
...
Your technically correct, however this is beating a dead horse given the legitimate research before and since, we know ME/CFS is not a matter of willpower/deconditioning. However if its lobbed as an additional stake in the heart of this flawed study i'm all for it.
 
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anciendaze

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Your technically correct, however this is beating a dead horse given the legitimate research before and since, we know ME/CFS is not a matter of willpower/deconditioning. However if its lobbed as an additional stake in the heart of this flawed study i'm all for it.
In this narrow discussion, I am only dealing with the papers by the PACE bunch, and a few papers dealing with the same methodology. Some of those did show patients diverting activity -- as if from a fixed budget. I agree there is good data in papers completely outside this context. That is a different discussion entirely.

If you don't know that you did actually cause patients to exercise more than they had without any intervention you don't know if you even ran an experimental study of GET. This has special relevance for the question of how those researchers spent the money they obtained. If quickly dropping part of the original protocol left them with questions about whether or not they were gradually increasing the exercise patients were getting, as claimed, it would seem they were not overly concerned about running any kind of scientific study, and the whole project was merely a platform for propaganda.

Pulling that kind of stunt will get your grants blackballed by people interested in serious research. The continued roll-out of treatments based on similar ideas appears to show an "old boy network" of unusual resilience, which is still able to freeze out individuals with dissenting opinions.
 

trishrhymes

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I agree completely with your points about not using actigraphy and dubious diagnostic inclusion criteria. I think the Pace trial investigators should be held to account for discarding the use of already purchased actometer. For me this completely negates the tiny between group differences - since, as you say, no one knows whether there was any actual difference in activity level between groups, so no one knows whether a valid trial actually took place.

Too late to change PACE, but not too late to insist on objective measures in new trials, eg FITNET. Any idea anyone how that can be achieved? At the very least they should be biobank samples at the beginning and end for future testing once a biomarker is found, and wearing actometers throughout the trial.
 

Barry53

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There is one aspect of the proposed experiment which seems to have been lost in the shuffle: if you don't know a patient's total activity before and during therapy you have no idea if they are displacing activity to participate in the program, as happened in other studies. It is possible the premise that GET involved an increase in activity was never met. Patients may not have been experiencing an increase in exercise at all, merely a shift in how they spent a limited energy budget.
Quite so. Seems highly viable that some participants could be well motivated to "save energy" as best they could prior to trial sessions in order to "do well" and show "improvement". Even more worrying would be if it were not just down to self-motivation, but if some aspect of a trial maybe even encouraged/fostered such behaviour, even if only tacitly.
 
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Barry53

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Another thought. The high risk of bias is identified for various aspects of the included studies (damning enough I would have thought). The science and stats would be way beyond my abilities, but is it possible (perhaps from past precedents) to go beyond simply the risk of bias, but also assess the probability of bias, including direction? Are there any previous unblinded studies to draw on, which have included both subjective and objective outcomes? If so, would there be enough data for statistical reliability to assess bias probabilities? These would not necessarily need to be ME/CFS studies at all, not even fatigue related, but potentially any that allow bias probabilities to be evaluated. The limiting factor I imagine is whether adequate data has been published for past studies.

e.g. If it were possible to use/cite prescedents, such that the probability of a falsely favourable outcome is x, with confidence y, then that would allow such results to be either dismissed, or some compensating factor applied to the results. But probably an extremely difficult - or impossible - undertaking I imagine.
 
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anciendaze

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By itself the argument about actimeters/actigraphs would seem minor. What I'm trying to illustrate is what attorneys call a "pattern of behavior". It appears the protocol was structured from day one to make objective measures less important than opinions which were subject to manipulation. The business with dropping actimeters took place even before it was possible to tell if patients in the GET arm were in fact increasing total activity at all.

Remaining objective measures included a "step test" and a "walk test". Data from the "step test" which gave a complete null result was not even mentioned in the original publication. At a later date the authors themselves argued that the "walk test" was improperly implemented, and it was possible patients showed much greater gains than the clinically insignificant ones published. Even those claimed gains were questionable because 1/3 of the subjects were allowed to decline to participate in the "walk test". The authors were not at all concerned about the resulting bias in favor of patients who happened to feel somewhat better, while ignoring patients who declined because they felt worse.

Two other pieces of data could be considered objective: return to employment and need for government assistance. These were the primary rationale for conducting a study financed in part by the DWP. We found out there was a "slight increase" in required assistance in the most roundabout way possible, without a clue about what is "slight". Both factors result in numerical data which you will not find in these publications.

Taken together these tiny factors all point toward something close to contempt for objective data which might falsify hypotheses based on the authors opinions.

Added: check Tom Kindlon's post in the the thread below, which corrects my slip of memory w.r.t. numerical data on need for government assistance. I'll admit it is hard for me to remember numbers which don't seem to have any meaning.
 
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Sean

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At a later date the authors themselves argued that the "walk test" was improperly implemented, and it was possible patients showed much greater gains than the clinically insignificant ones published.
Which claim has been nicely rebutted by studies cited recently in Wilshire, et al.

Beekman E, Mesters I, Gosselink R, Klaassen MP, Hendriks EJ, Van Schayck OC, de Bie RA. The first reference equations for the 6-minute walk distance over a 10 m course. Thorax. 2014 Apr 24:thoraxjnl-2014.

Marinho PE, Raposo MC, Dean E, Guerra RO, Dornelas de Andrade A. Does verbal encouragement actually improve performance in the 6-minute walk test? Physiother Theory Pract. 2014;30(8):540-3.

Guyatt GH, Pugsley SO, Sullivan MJ, Thompson PJ, Berman L, Jones NL, Fallen EL, Taylor DW. Effect of encouragement on walking test performance. Thorax. 1984;39(11):818-22.

Both track length, and, independently, encouragement (or lack of it), have now been ruled out as significant factors in the PACE 6MWT results.

The virtually universal null or negative result on objective measures is a stark fact that needs to be at the centre of debate about PACE. It forces PACE to rely entirely on marginal gains on unblinded subjective measures, where those gains fall within the range of known confounders of the sort that were not adequately blinded by PACE.
 
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Tom Kindlon

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I agree completely with your points about not using actigraphy and dubious diagnostic inclusion criteria. I think the Pace trial investigators should be held to account for discarding the use of already purchased actometer.
FYI, the actometers were used at baseline. This data should be referred to in the future paper on predictors. Not that I think that is nearly as useful as using them as outcome measures.
 

Tom Kindlon

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Two other pieces of data could be considered objective: return to employment and need for government assistance. These were the primary rationale for conducting a study financed in part by the DWP. We found out there was a "slight increase" in required assistance in the most roundabout way possible, without a clue about what is "slight". Both factors result in numerical data which you will not find in these publications.

There was some data in this paper:

Adaptive Pacing, Cognitive Behaviour Therapy, Graded Exercise, and Specialist Medical Care for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040808
e.g.

journal.pone.0040 808.t004.png
 

anciendaze

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There was some data in this paper:...
Thanks Tom, that slipped my mind. However, the data presented do not seem to support any claims for effectiveness of CBT or GET. I'm not entirely sure what conclusions to draw, though APT and SMC seem to do well.
 

Esther12

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There's also a commentary I can only see the start of:

Round the Corner

Controversy over exercise therapy for chronic fatigue syndrome: key lessons for clinicians and academics
COMMENTARY ON… COCHRANE CORNER
Alex J. Mitchell
BJPsych Advances May 2017, 23 (3) 145-148; DOI: 10.1192/apt.bp.116.016261

SUMMARY
Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is syndrome of unremitting fatigue of at least 6 months’ duration that causes significant disability. Exercise therapy has a proven track record in medicine and could be effective for some patients with CFS. An updated Cochrane review of eight studies appeared to suggest that exercise helps fatigue symptoms, but with only a small probability of recovery and/or improvement in daily function. Provisional data on acceptability suggest that most patients are willing to participate. However, one key study (PACE), which was well powered and influential in the Cochrane review, has been met with considerable controversy owing to lack of clarity on outcomes. Following release of the PACE study primary data, re-analysis suggested smaller effect sizes than initially reported.

  • ©2017 The Royal College of Psychiatrists

http://apt.rcpsych.org/content/23/3/145?rss=1

The author of that comment wrote this on the XMRV story: http://forums.phoenixrising.me/inde...g-lost-and-found-with-the-cause-of-cfs.15719/

Concluding:

Unfortunately, there may be a more immediate and negative connotation. I suspect that many patients with chronic fatigue syndrome will be even more likely to reject psychological help after reading how the medical profession nearly found the cause of chronic fatigue syndrome, only to lose it again.
 

Alvin2

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Exercise therapy has a proven track record in medicine and could be effective for some patients with CFS
Thats like saying research has proven water relives thirst hence its a candidate to treat cancer, total non sequitur :thumbdown:

This has turned up in the British Journal of Psychiatry: http://apt.rcpsych.org/content/23/3/144?rss=1
"No evidence suggests that exercise therapy may worsen outcomes", they are flat out lying.
This should be published in the journal of alternative facts.
 

Sean

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An updated Cochrane review of eight studies appeared to suggest that exercise helps fatigue symptoms, but with only a small probability of recovery and/or improvement in daily function.

"appeared to suggest"

"only a small probability" of any effect at all

Very obtuse, dishonest, and cowardly way of saying: We got nothing.
 

A.B.

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The third lesson is that, to promote acceptability, psychosocial treatments should be integrated into medical care.

I think they should finally listening to patients that have been trying to tell them for a long time what is acceptable and what isn't.

What I would consider acceptable is offering these to patients that want them, without pressure, with honest discussion of benefits and risks. Routine psychosocial treatment is a collossal waste of resources and will just annoy many patients in my opinion.

This piece by Mitchell is very soft on PACE, CBT/GET but at least it does acknowledge some problems. Since the author is a psychiatrist from the UK that's probably still a significant step forward.
 
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