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New England Journal of Medicine - Eiger's Interferon Lambda


Senior Member
Is 5.6% vs 2.7% really a 51% increase, or just a 2.9% increase? I admit that the former looks better, but I consider it misleading. Considering that the outcomes were just reports about how the patients felt, and how they seemed to be playing some complex statistical games (deciding what groupings and levels to assign to which outcome), I'm not convinced that this is a significant treatment rather than just a "adjust things to make the study look good" type of study.

It certainly doesn't make me demand this treatment if I got Covid.
The NEJM say "The efficacy...is unclear" but reading down the page a bit with my foggy brain, it doesn't look like they were.

That's just the background section; e.g. "why did we set out to do this experiment": because the efficacy from past experience was unclear. So they did the experiment which found that it was in fact efficacious.


Is 5.6% vs 2.7% really a 51% increase, or just a 2.9% increase?
Both, it is a 51% relative decrease an a 2.9% absolute decrease in Covid-19–related hospitalization or ER visits with >6hours observation in those who received inf-lambda. Both numbers are important to consider, but studies and press releases will often only give the relative, it usually sounds more impressive.

Here is some data on the relative and absolute risk reduction for Paxlovid for comparison:

Among the 2,085 patients who were randomized within 5 days of symptom onset (mITT1 analysis), COVID-19-related hospitalizations and all-cause deaths occurred in 8 of 1,039 patients (0.77%) in the ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir arm (paxlovid) and in 66 of 1,046 patients (6.3%) in the placebo arm (89% relative risk reduction; 5.6% estimated absolute reduction; 95% CI, 7.2% to 4.0%; P < 0.001). There were no deaths in the ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir arm and 13 deaths in the placebo arm.