I'm overall an optimist, but I also like to follow good scientific practice in making predictions. So we should find a good background probability for establishing whether the Rituximab Phase III trial will report a success.
My reading suggests that in some fields, around 40 to 60 per cent of Phase III trials fail. (1, 2, 3)
View attachment 21754
Source: Clinical Development Success Rates 2006-2015
Rituximab is a Phase III trial so if we want to argue it is a higher chance of success than its peers, we need good reasons.
We can perhaps adjust our background probability for research coming from a stable European country, for researchers with no financial stake, and also for a disease with such strong Phase II trials. (Edit: some other good reasons to be more confident have been suggested below.) But there is no way the Ritux Phase III trial result unveiling is just a formality.
There remains a serious chance (perhaps 25 per cent?) that it comes back unable to reject the null hypothesis. I think it's important to keep this in mind so the patient community doesn't fall into despair if it happens - we have many irons in the fire at the moment and for once, not everything is riding on one research team or one study.
My reading suggests that in some fields, around 40 to 60 per cent of Phase III trials fail. (1, 2, 3)
View attachment 21754
Source: Clinical Development Success Rates 2006-2015
Rituximab is a Phase III trial so if we want to argue it is a higher chance of success than its peers, we need good reasons.
We can perhaps adjust our background probability for research coming from a stable European country, for researchers with no financial stake, and also for a disease with such strong Phase II trials. (Edit: some other good reasons to be more confident have been suggested below.) But there is no way the Ritux Phase III trial result unveiling is just a formality.
There remains a serious chance (perhaps 25 per cent?) that it comes back unable to reject the null hypothesis. I think it's important to keep this in mind so the patient community doesn't fall into despair if it happens - we have many irons in the fire at the moment and for once, not everything is riding on one research team or one study.