How long do you guys think it will take before there is treatment available for XMRV + people?
It depends on how you define an available treatment. If you mean a treatment your doctor can prescribe you on label, then I think it will take about -- an eternity.
First you would have wait for a positive replication study, then I guess the replication study will be questioned because there have been so many, mostly PCR studies, which have failed to find it.
After that I think some or all of the patients in the science study will be offered a treatment trial.
If the trial is successfull that wont be enough to make it a on label treatment.
After that, a new and much bigger group would have to first be tested, and enrolled in a larger study, where perhaps half would recieve placebo and half receive drugs. And if that's successfull, I hope we don't get a new debate over whatnot about the trial.
So it will be years and years to wait, and the scenario above is if everything goes well... It doesn't seem to me that the interest for getting a study where they actually replicate the original study is that high to the CDC. Seems to me they are quite content with doing a half hearted effort. I hope this would change, but it wouldn't surprise me if this wouldn't be prioritized even after positive replication studies. On one hand the original study is being criticized for not having a quantitative PCR (meaning a PCR which shows viral load in the blood...), and on the other hand those who do replication studies doesn't care about doing a PCR in their study, which is identical to the one in the original study. Obviosly it's known that measurements of viral load haven't been done in the original study, and yet they go about it as if it's known that the viral load in the blood is so high that they don't need to have a fine calibrated PCR to find it. They can just use a PCR which have never been calibrated for a positive human sample, and assume that it works.
Knowledge of personal trials, with the support of a doctor is very helpful for those who are about to design bigger treatment trials. In vivo experience is after all what we're after. Something might work on paper, but if it works in pratice, then we've got what we're looking for.
So I'd like to say that I am very gratefull for those who are being pioneers. Both them, and the doctors who are willing to help them.