Herd immunity to Covid-19 may not work....and why. Does this dash hopes for a vaccine?

[Wolfcub]

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

We can catch it twice, says D. Clay Ackerly, MD, MSc.

And the second time is always more severe.

My own thoughts are...if twice, then what's to stop us catching it multiple times?


This also makes us wonder if a vaccine would be successful for protection?

Covid-19 is a real bummer. None of us yet, can see where this is going to end or where it will take us. The best advice right now is to keep wearing face masks and social distancing.

 

[WantedAlive]

And the second time is always more severe.

That's interesting because today I was reading Dengue fever is believed by many to be worse and sometimes fatal with the second infection. Reported in statnews, a worse response to reinfection occurs at a time when antibodies from prior infection fall below a certain level. Maybe a similar associated response is occurring with Covid-19. That's a major worry if its true.

 

[wabi-sabi]

This also makes us wonder if a vaccine would be successful for protection?

I'm not sure these two things are related or not. I don't know much of anything about making vaccines, but I'm sure the people who do that for a living do, and if they feel they are making progress then we will be OK. If I can get a COVID vaccine and be safe I'll be very happy, but I'd be happy to get a COVID shot every year, just like a get a flu shot every year if that's what it takes. Just waiting on the science and trying not to worry about what I can't control in the meantime.

 

[Sushi]

This also makes us wonder if a vaccine would be successful for protection?

Yes, everyone who is reading about vaccines is concerned about that as they know that the antibodies don't last long. They also have discovered that Covid activates T cells but they don't know yet how long that lasts or how it affects immunity. I guess another question with developing a vaccine is whether they can boost the antibodies in the vaccine, or whether they would need to give frequent boosters. Another aspect is that a couple of research groups are working on developing a vaccine NOT based on antibodies but somehow using genetics. So there are lot of things to look at.

 

[ljimbo423]

Yes, everyone who is reading about vaccines is concerned about that as they know that the antibodies don't last long. They also have discovered that Covid activates T cells but they don't know yet how long that lasts or how it affects immunity. I guess another question with developing a vaccine is whether they can boost the antibodies in the vaccine, or whether they would need to give frequent boosters. Another aspect is that a couple of research groups are working on developing a vaccine NOT based on antibodies but somehow using genetics. So there are lot of things to look at.

The genetics based vaccine sounds really interesting.

We have researchers working on different vaccines from all over the world. At least for now, I'm going to put my faith in them.

 

[Judee]

OK. If I can get a COVID vaccine and be safe I'll be very happy, but I'd be happy to get a COVID shot every year, just like a get a flu shot every year if that's what it takes. Just waiting on the science and trying not to worry about what I can't control in the meantime.

My concerns are that they say in earlier animal tests when they tried to develop this back with SARs that some of the animals developed hyperimmunity from the shot and when they got exposed to the virus in the wild after that, their bodies overreacted with some of them dying. I'm just wondering how they will overcome that possibility with this one.

In a recent interview on CNBC with Bill Gates, he mentions that with vaccination of the world's population we can expect about 700,000 to have "vaccine injury" as a result. I wonder if that is what he is talking about. He didn't elaborate unfortunately.

That sounded very discouraging to me.

I think he did mention using blood from patient's who have recovered as another possible treatment but wouldn't those antibodies die as well?

 

[andyguitar]

I think he did mention using blood from patient's who have recovered as another possible treatment but wouldn't those antibodies die as well?

This is already being used but how effective it is wont be known for a while.

Yes, everyone who is reading about vaccines is concerned about that as they know that the antibodies don't last long.

They might not, but if the numbers infected and passing on the virus is reduced by a vaccine it could lead to a big reduction in the numbers infected.

 

[andyguitar]

We can catch it twice, says D. Clay Ackerly, MD, MSc.

But his opinion is based on what he thinks happened to one of his patients, and a some accounts from other docs. So if reinfection does happen it's rare. If it was common then the infection rate in areas very badly effected (Italy for instance) would not have gone down and stayed down. I'm not worried about what Ackerly says.

 

[andyguitar]

In a recent interview on CNBC with Bill Gates, he mentions that with vaccination of the world's population we can expect about 700,000 to have "vaccine injury" as a result. I wonder if that is what he is talking about. He didn't elaborate unfortunately.

If Gates is using the correct term "Vaccine injury" it means things like physical injury caused by the needle going in; Chronic Arthritis; Severe allergic reaction; Guillain-Barre Syndrome; Encephalitis. But not all vaccines will cause all these symptoms. Some vaccine injuries dont last long. The figure 0f 700,000 may sound high but when we consider how many could be vaccinated (Billions?) it's not that high. The really bad "vaccine injuries" are rare. Bit irresponsible of Gates to just throw out "700,000 vaccine injuries" without saying what he means.

 

[ljimbo423]

The figure 0f 700,000 may sound high but when we consider how many could be vaccinated (Billions?) it's not that high.

EDIT-

If my figures are right, that would be 1 person out of every 11,142. There's almost 8 billion people in the world (7.8), divided by 700,000 = 11,142.

 

[Sushi]

I wanted to update this discussion with an article I read today about the different types of immunity and how antibodies are only one factor:
https://apple.news/AzeiGgiMgROqvC8yT_n42lw

If that link doesn’t work, it is a Vox article called What scientists are learning about how long Covid-19 immunity lasts

 

[andyguitar]

It's one of the best articles i've seen so far @Sushi and thanks for posting it. I hope all our members (and visitors) are able to read it. Memory B cells. Seems to me that their duration is the important thing. As it says in the report survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu still had Memory B cells 80 years after they got infected. Covid is not a flu virus so thing maybe different. Or maybe the same.

 

[Rebeccare]

If that link doesn’t work, it is a Vox article called What scientists are learning about how long Covid-19 immunity lasts

Here's the direct link: https://www.vox.com/2020/7/22/21324...ice-immunity-antibodies-vaccine-herd-immunity

Thank you for posting it!