Enterovirus Outbreaks: Predictive Model Developed, Imperial College London

[Gemini]

Enterovirus surveillance data from Japan, spanning 15 years, is the basis of a mathematical model that can predict EV outbreaks 2 years ahead of time.

Developed by researchers in the Dept. of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, St. Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, it was published in Science, 24 Aug 2018 with commentary, "Enterovirus Outbreak Dynamics," by scientists at the Pasteur Institute, Paris.

Contrary to most countries, "Enterovirus surveillance in Japan therefore captures the circulation of a broad range of serotypes and does it in a consistent and systematic way."

Researchers "were able to explain infection dynamics for 18 of the 20 most prevalent serotypes in Japan with a single simple model."

"In the future, models could be used to anticipate when the next enterovirus outbreak might occur, how large it will be, and which serotype might cause it."

This would help clinicians detect cases and provide appropriate care; aid vaccine developers; and guide
public health prevention programs.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30139872
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30139861

@charles shepherd might it be possible to ask these researchers about UK enterovirus surveillance data and if they're aware of links to past ME/CFS outbreaks?

 

[Gemini]

The Abstract:

Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses.
Pons-Salort M1, Grassly NC2.
Author information

Abstract
Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases. More than 100 serotypes are known that exhibit unexplained complex patterns of incidence, from regular cycles to more irregular patterns, and new emergences.

Using 15 years of surveillance data from Japan (2000-2014) and a stochastic transmission model with accurate demography, we show that acquired serotype-specific immunity can explain the diverse patterns of 18 of the 20 most common serotypes (including Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, and Enterovirus-A71).

The remaining two serotypes required a change in viral characteristics, including an increase in pathogenicity for Coxsackievirus-A6, which is consistent with its recent global rise in incidence.

On the basis of our findings, we are able to predict outbreaks 2 years ahead of time (2015-2016).

These results have implications for the impact of vaccines under development.