Daily New Cases admitted in intensive care, a reliable and early sign of epidemic evolution to follow

[pattismith]

France (pop 69 millions)

12 March 24 new cases in intensive care

Lockdown started 17 March (the day before is the maximum spreading rate of the virus)

18 March 222
19 March 438
20 March 242
21 March 298
22 March 309
23 March 348
24 March 571

25 March 607
26 March 610
27 March 607
28 March 694
29 March 543
30 March 693
31 March 766

01 April 771
02 April 728
03 April 640 the number starts going down
04 April 502
05 April 390
06 April 478
07 April 518

08 April 482
09 April 369
10 April 432
11 April 255
12 April 220
13 April 227
14 April 275

15 April 284
16 April 270


https://www.europe1.fr/sante/corona...-du-nombre-de-patients-en-reanimation-3961350

https://www.lci.fr/sante/video-coro...ombre-de-patients-en-reanimation-2149910.html

https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/san...e-moins-de-patients-en-reanimation-1586455115

https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/san...re-de-nouveaux-patients-en-reanimation_143292

(still updating when I find new datas)

https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/entry...geantes-en-france_fr_5e8a1f5dc5b6cbaf282b2816

New patients in ICU (presumaly on ventilator) in blue and total number in red

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandémie_de_Covid-19_en_France#Premiers_cas

 

[pattismith]

I added a graph, and if someone find datas for other countries, I wish we could compare. ((@ellie84 ?))

It may be that this number is used by epidemiologists to decide when the lockdown becomes urgent and necessary (together with ICU capacities in the country).

 

[pattismith]

This graph is from Spain, it shows new patients admitted in ICU (blue line)
It starts decreasing the 26 of March, whereas deaths start declining inly on 03 of April (red line)
Lockdown was published on 14 of March

https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/san...animation-avec-une-semaine-de-decalage_143393

 

[ellie84]

I found this page with interactive graphs: https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_8
There is this English version of the page, unfortunately the interactive graphs are in Italian, but you can hover the cursor over them and see the numbers.

On March 9th the lockdown was announced and it started the following day. Masks and gloves have been mandatory from April 4th at least inside shops etc. or anywhere outside home, depending on the region.

Daily new ICU admissions in dark red (normal admissions in red and home quarantine in pink):

Percentages:

From what I can understand (which I'm afraid isn't very much ), the percentage of daily new ICU cases compared to the total cases has been steadily declining from the beginning of the lockdown. You can see it better in the second graph. And from April 4th this percentage has been negative (-1.82%).

We were the first country in Europe to be hit, so I guess that's why there were already a lot of ICU admissions, we weren't prepared.

 

[Hufsamor]

Norway
Lockdown announced 12 march
Red : hospitalised
Light blue: intensive care
Purple: on respirator

 

[pattismith]

I found this page with interactive graphs: https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/#box_8
There is this English version of the page, unfortunately the interactive graphs are in Italian, but you can hover the cursor over them and see the numbers.

On March 9th the lockdown was announced and it started the following day. Masks and gloves have been mandatory from April 4th at least inside shops etc. or anywhere outside home, depending on the region.

Daily new ICU admissions in dark red (normal admissions in red and home quarantine in pink):


From what I can understand (which I'm afraid isn't very much ), the percentage of daily new ICU cases compared to the total cases has been steadily declining from the beginning of the lockdown. You can see it better in the second graph. And from April 4th this percentage has been negative (-1.82%).

.

it's interesting so far, but it's not the actual "daily new ICU admissions", it's the total cases in the ICU each day, it's very different.
Every day, new patients are put on ventilator, while some patients go out of ventilator (either they are doing better, either they are dead). The best number to follow is the number of these new patients, because we know approximately the percentage of covid-ill patients that will need to be put on ventilator.
This way, this number allows to calculate approximately how much new ill patients show up every day in general population.

Spain decided the lockdown before this number reached +100/day, and probably France did the same, but I don't have the real number around the lockdown day in France.

Maybe you will find this number for Italy?

(I suspect this number is one of the sign that the government is looking at to decide what to do next.)

 

[ellie84]

So from that graph on March 9th there were +83 ICU patients and on March 10th +144, is this the number you mean?

 

[Hufsamor]

I can't find those numbers for Norway.
But the very first corona patient in hospital was admitted 7 march.
And then lockdown started the 12 march.
Witch is most likely the main reason there are so few cases in Norway.

 

[pattismith]

I can't find those numbers for Norway.
But the very first corona patient in hospital was admitted 7 march.
And then lockdown started the 12 march.
Witch is most likely the main reason there are so few cases in Norway.

yes obviously!

So from that graph on March 9th there were +83 ICU patients and on March 10th +144, is this the number you mean?

I can't see it on your graph, but I think yes it might be! I went on the link you quoted but can't find it

 

[ellie84]

I just did the math between the 2 days I know it's not the best, but I couldn't find something better without too much hassle. So the answer would be that Italy implemented lockdown right before the number of new ICU cases per day became +100.

 

[pattismith]

I just did the math between the 2 days I know it's not the best, but I couldn't find something better without too much hassle. So the answer would be that Italy implemented lockdown right before the number of new ICU cases per day became +100.

ok I understand, it's clever but it's not right
You just got the total ICU patients variation from a day to another (in one day)
= new ICU admissions during 24 h00 - (patients going off ventilator during 24h00 /either dead or "cured").

But to look better at the evolution of the virus spreading in the population you need to look only at the New ICU admissions during 24h00.

Edit: @ellie84 i found a wikipedia page for France pandemia with good datas to complete my numbers, maybe you may have one in Italian?

 

[pattismith]

Here in France is the 4th week into the lockdown.
It seems that the New daily Admissions in ICU is stabilized around 250 per day for 4 days.
Does it mean that the virus is still spreading in the population (considering our lockdown isn't as hard as the spanish one for example)...

08 April 482
09 April 369
10 April 432
11 April 255
12 April 220
13 April 227
14 April 275

 

[ellie84]

= new ICU admissions during 24 h00 - (patients going off ventilator during 24h00 /either dead or "cured").

I figured it was something like that, I did another quick search earlier today but couldn't find this data. I searched on institutional websites, wikipedia, Google, but it seems the closest thing is that graph I posted. Maybe I need different search terms, I don't know. Sorry, but I'm not good with statistics and have quite short attention span (thanks benzos ). Please link the French wikipedia page?

 

[pattismith]

@ellie84
the link is in my first post. I have the chance to have this number every day in this wiki page.
Unfortunately they start only on 18 March (after the lockdown).
Yesterday we had 284 new admissions so it raises again for 2 days and we can guess the virus is still spreading...

F

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandémie_de_Covid-19_en_France#Premiers_cas