Coronavirus what’s going on with “numbers” and the “modeling”? Do we need a closer look and a do over of the “model” and the “numbers”?

[Wally]

Today’s U.S. Coronavirus Task Force Press Briefing where those “elusive” numbers were discussed. Watch from hour/minute marker 2:01:30 to 2:07:20.

3/29/2020

 

[percyval577]

Measuring new cases against all cases in a logarithmic coordinate system.
(youtube channel minutephysics)

 

[andyguitar]

The statstics from Sweden are interesting: Cases 4,028. Deaths 146. They do not have a lockdown over there as the Gov believes the result of doing so would be worse for the country.

 

[percyval577]

Sometimes I am drawn into the same direction and wonder if the lockdown with this virus will show to have any positive effect at all.

 

[pamojja]

..and wonder if the lockdown with this virus will show to have any positive effect at all.

Nobody at this point can really know. Of the 10 counties till now most affected from covid mortality in order of their first covid-19 deaths:

China
Philippines
Hongkong
Spain
Japan
France
Taiwan
Iran
South Korea
Italy
USA

The greens are still far below the average pneumonia deaths these countries usually report for the same time-period. In average at only 0.35 to usual times. Taking China, Philippines and Iran out for suspected lack of serious counting, it is even lower at 0.33 times to average pneumonia deaths. No real epidemy in 8 out 10 countries mostly affected by mortality.

And only in Itally and Spain mortality is 5.78 times to usual times! And there again only, if not taking out certain very limited 3 regions. (Lombary, Emilia Romagna, Pietmont and Madrid, Catalonia, Castile La Mancha respecively.)

As far as I know Hongkong, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all haven't had a draconian lock-down (combined at only 0.4 times the usual mortality rate!) as all the other countries. While Spain and Italy did.

But it more and more appears to me we are comparing apples and oranges here. And there is something completely differently at work in the only 2 really affected countries, until now. Nothing to do with complete lockdown or its lack.

Other countries with later first covid deaths at in average hit at 3.11 times the usual rates are Belgium, Luxembuorg, Netherlands and Switzerland (all in lockdown). While again all other countries (with more than 999 'infected') average at 0.35 times the usual pneumonia deaths for thier respective time periods. In the final total adding up to 0.08 times higher mortality from pneumonia than usually. Well within the usual fluctuation from year to year.

 

[Wayne]

As far as I know Hongkong, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all haven't had a draconian lock-down (combined at only 0.4 times the usual mortality rate!) as all the other countries. While Spain and Italy did.

@pamojja -- My understanding is these countries had significant experience from previous coronavirus infections (early 2000's), and were acutely aware of the immense value of getting reliable diagnostic tests up and running as fast as humanly possible. They had already created governmental/private sector partnerships to respond to such a crisis, and were able to quickly deliver this diagnostic testing capability as they had hoped and prepared for.

By achieving this critical accomplishment early on, they were able to identify quite accurately who did, and who did not have the infection. With such extremely valuable information, they were able to target certain areas and certain groups of people who were either likely infected, or had a probability of becoming infected. They were then able to implement appropriate pinpointed quarantine measures, and were so successful, they were able to avoid much more draconian measures such as total nationwide lockdowns.

The S. Koreans knew how important their achievement was, and immediately offered their assistance and diagnositic testing capabilities to other countries, with the U.S. being the one I'm most aware of. This is where U.S. leadership failed miserably. Instead of accepting these offers of assistance, they instead declined, and decided to go their own way, and try to do this on their own. The dilly-dallying that ensued squandered several critical weeks, and paved the way for the tragic scenario we now see unfolding. More of what transpired is laid out in the below linked article. -- BTW, I think Sweden is doing as well as those Asian countries.

The coronavirus test that wasn’t: How federal health officials misled state scientists and derailed the best chance at containment -- Brett MurphyLetitia Stein -- USA TODAY

 

[andyguitar]

Sometimes I am drawn into the same direction and wonder if the lockdown with this virus will show to have any positive effect at all.

I am starting to have serious doubts about the way things are being done in the UK. The London Underground is still running so there are many thousands mixing every day. I also think that the full facts about who is likely to become critical and how the infection is spread are not being revealed. And looking at the infection and death rates in Italy and Spain, that have continued to rise despite lockdown, think it is probable the disease is mainly being spread by medical staff. Yes @Wayne Aisian countries are better placed to deal with an outbreak like this.

 

[AnnieT]

And looking at the infection and death rates in Italy and Spain, that have continued to rise despite lockdown, think it is probable the disease is mainly being spread by medical staff. .

I think the alluded to this today in the press conference when they said that they suspected the community spread to calm.

 

[Wayne]

The S. Koreans knew how important their achievement was, and immediately offered their assistance and diagnositic testing capabilities to other countries, with the U.S. being the one I'm most aware of.

The following 2-min. video gives some of the details. S. Korea and U.S. had their first coronavirus case on the same day, Jan. 20. The outcomes in both countries are miles apart.

CNN reporter on early coronavirus testing: We blew it -- 2-minute video

 

[Wally]

In parts of the U.S. it is day 15 of a mandatory shelter in place (shutdown, lockdown or life interrupted). How much longer until those numbers, those models and those defensive tactics will come together to flatten the curve of the expanding belly of this beast of a virus?

Here is one reporter’s thoughts about the questions that still need to be answered about those numbers, models and defensive tactics.

 

[pamojja]

Just came accross a news report from Northern Italy dated the 10th of January 2018 translated by deepl.com:

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/...te-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml

Milan, intensive therapy for the collapse of the flu: already 48 seriously ill patients many operations postponed
Difficulties in receiving new patients, suspended bookings for resuscitation beds intended to receive patients after operations, extraordinary shifts (free) for doctors and nurses called back from vacation. Appeal of the doctors to the Region
shadow

Record numbers. The complications of the flu, especially pneumonia, are causing a crisis in resuscitations: 48 cases of seriously ill patients hospitalized from Christmas to the present day in the intensive care units of Policlinico, San Raffaele, San Gerardo di Monza and San Matteo di Pavia, the reference hospitals in Lombardy for the use of Ecmo, the machine that replaces the lungs. The problems overlap: difficulty in welcoming new patients, postponement of scheduled surgeries and suspended bookings for the resuscitation beds intended to accommodate the patients after the operations, extraordinary shifts (free) for doctors and nurses called back from vacation. A serious situation that leads doctors to ask for the help of the Health Department led by Giulio Gallera and to regret the choice made by Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzin to no longer allocate funds to the Italian network of Ecmo (the 20 million euros financed in 2009 by the then Minister Ferruccio Fazio).

Giuseppe Foti, at the head of the San Gerardo Emergency of Monza, sums it up: "Three patients hospitalized until December 22, 6 from December 22 to 31, 8 from January 1 to date. The problem is serious. From this week we are forced to suspend the reservation of beds in intensive care for surgical patients with scheduled interventions". Federico Pappalardo, head of the intensive care unit at San Raffaele, admits: "Today other non-urgent operations will be missed". Giacomo Grasselli, medical director of resuscitation at the Policlinico, is in the same situation: "The risk of postponing elective surgery for patients who need post-operative care in intensive care is a problem on the agenda". Giorgio Antonio Iotti, head of intensive care at San Matteo di Pavia, widens his arms: "Patients with severe pneumonia and major complications caused by the influenza virus are occupying as many as a quarter of our 21 beds".

To overcome the problem, according to the doctors, the intervention of the Lombardy Region is urgent: the Pirellone is called into question because today there is no recognized coordination, also economically, of the work of the four hospitals. Alberto Zangrillo, director of the emergency department of the San Raffaele, attacks: "The truth is that Minister Lorenzin has not taken care at national level to refinance the project, putting Lombardy in particular in difficulty, a region on which the work of the other regions is also unloaded because of the high level of the centers". Grasselli insists: "The centralization of the sick who need Ecmo literally allows to save the lives of patients who would otherwise die". And the thought of the doctors, gathered on Monday at the Polyclinic to examine what to do, goes to the new mother who risked her life two days after giving birth, at the beginning of January, for a very serious respiratory insufficiency following the flu and now in good condition thanks to Ecmo. The same happened to a little girl, who was severely aggravated as a result of fever and cough. The worst was also feared for her: "But our intervention with the machine that replaces the lungs saved her". A great commitment, a tremendous effort, which now makes the institutions ask for recognition. To save more lives.

In the meantime, the blood emergency is spreading, due to the flu virus that prevents many donors from going to the collection centres. After the appeal of the Polyclinic, the virologist Roberto Burioni reports difficulties also at San Raffaele, with surgery suspended due to the shortage of blood. And he invites the citizens to give their contribution.
10 January 2018 | 07:56
© CONFIDENTIAL REPRODUCTION

Just 2 question to ask oneself:

• Is the air-quality in your area similiar to those in Northern Italy or the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Barcelona?
• Does that report about the ICU situation in Lombardy from 2018 sound similiar to the situation of ICUs in your area?

 

[Wayne]

The below linked article (which I consider a must read if you're not familiar with the topic) makes it appear wearing masks could soon be mandatory across much of the world. -- Th article gives a good review of why wearing masks were shunned in the beginning, and just to warn you, the details may be upsetting to read, just as they were for me. -- It's also looking like that recommended 6 feet of social distancing is well short of the 25-30 feet the virus can actually travel. Another reason to consider wearing a mask.

In other articles I just read this morning (that I feel connect well with the mask article), some health authorities now believe as many as 1/4 of people infected with the coronavirus are totally asymptomatic, while others infected are presenting with only very mild symptoms, and may not even know they have it. Also, people who have totally recovered from the virus can still be infectious for many days afterwards. -- All good reasons to always wear a mask.

Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face masks, and the rest of the world is coming around
Analysis by James Griffiths, CNN
Updated 12:21 PM ET, Wed April 1, 2020

"Hong Kong (CNN) In the coming weeks, if they have not already, your government is likely to begin advising you to wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus.'​

​

For those living in Asia, such announcements will be a vindication of a tactic that has been adopted across much of the region since the beginning of the crisis and appears to have been borne out by lower rates of infection and faster containment of outbreaks."​

............................................

Just discovered another article title on the Politico website, but have not yet read it:

Mask mystery: Why are U.S. officials dismissive of protective covering?
Other nations recommend wearing masks to avoid coronavirus, but the Trump administration has not seen a benefit.

 

[pamojja]

Re: numbers..

The German city of Hamburg has started to forensically investigate its 12 corvid-19 deaths. 8 of them have been confirmed.

 

[Wayne]

This NPR article touches on the topic of masks:

Fighting COVID-19 Is Like 'Whack-A-Mole,' Says Writer Who Warned Of A Pandemic

Introduction to Article:

Two years ago, science writer Ed Yong wrote an article for The Atlantic in which he warned that a new global pandemic was inevitable — and that the world would be unprepared for it when it arrived. Now, with the outbreak of COVID-19, much of what Yong warned about in his reporting has come true.

Yong says scientists are still working to understand how the novel coronavirus travels through air. His latest article for The Atlantic concerns whether or not people beyond health care workers and other front-line personnel should be wearing some sort of mask to help prevent spread of the coronavirus. Here's the title to the above linked "latest article":

Everyone Thinks They’re Right About Masks
How the coronavirus travels through the air has become one of the most divisive debates in this pandemic.

 

[Wayne]

Regarding Facemasks

The following snippet is from this article: Face Masks Could Be Part of the Answer. The bolded part sums things up even more succinctly.

Taiwan offers a helpful model. Like the United States, Taiwan has seen an increased demand for face masks and disruptions in the supply chain. Prior to the pandemic, the majority of masks sold in Taiwan were manufactured elsewhere, with over 90% coming from China. In the past month, the Taiwanese government aggressively ramped up private manufacturing so that Taiwan can now make millions of masks per day and has enough N95 masks and hazmat suits for all their medical personnel... (each mask is sold for less than $0.25).​

​

Through this system, more than 2.3 million people were given the ability to buy seven million masks over the course of a single week. Of note, Taiwan, a densely populated country of 23 million people about 80 miles off the coast of China, has had only 322 confirmed infections and five deaths due to Covid-19 as of March 31. And Taiwan has, for the most part, not closed schools or businesses and has not implemented a lockdown.​

 

[Wayne]

Regarding Vitamin C

The below linked article touches on conventional medicine's avoidance of using IV Vit. C to treat sepsis (which many with the coronavirus die from ), even though it's well documented to save lives.

Modern Medicine’s Aversion to Vitamin C Therapy Results in a Half-Million Needless Deaths From Sepsis in U.S. Hospitals Every Year - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com

"While modern medicine casts a blind eye towards vitamin therapy and even exhibits open disdain for health practitioners and patients who incorporate vitamins into daily health regimens, it now appears a half-million Americans are losing their lives to a mortal bloodstream infection called sepsis that is induced by a deficiency of vitamin C.​

​

After three decades, and more than one-hundred failed clinical trials of synthetic drugs to quell the most common cause of death in American hospitals, modern medicine is dragging its feet over what has now been demonstrated to be obvious — intravenous vitamin C demonstrably reduces death from sepsis. Sepsis patients are being brought back from the precipice of death, enough to make ICU nurses cry tears of joy. But medical overseers have attempted to obscure this fact.​

​

Here is what modern medicine did to quash the compelling though preliminary data showing vitamin C saves lives of sepsis patients..."​

​

 

[Iritu1021]

I thought this article was excellent in explaining many of the mortality rate bias among countries.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

 

[ljimbo423]

I thought this article was excellent in explaining many of the mortality rate bias among countries.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ

A very good and detailed article on why the mortality rates are so different in many countries.

 

[IThinkImTurningJapanese]

As far as I know Hongkong, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all haven't had a draconian lock-down (combined at only 0.4 times the usual mortality rate!) as all the other countries.

We have closed down some public events, and Tokyo has been advised to self-isolate over the weekend.

Perhaps the almost universal use of masks has helped?

 

[pattismith]

The excess mortality is showing up in France since last week, particularly in some part of the country in the East and around Paris
The low mortality rate this winter (before covid arrived) is considered a result of a low intensity flu epidemic.