Coronavirus what’s going on with “numbers” and the “modeling”? Do we need a closer look and a do over of the “model” and the “numbers”?
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percyval577
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Measuring new cases against all cases in a logarithmic coordinate system.
(youtube channel minutephysics)
(youtube channel minutephysics)
andyguitar
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The statstics from Sweden are interesting: Cases 4,028. Deaths 146. They do not have a lockdown over there as the Gov believes the result of doing so would be worse for the country.
percyval577
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Sometimes I am drawn into the same direction and wonder if the lockdown with this virus will show to have any positive effect at all.
Nobody at this point can really know. Of the 10 counties till now most affected from covid mortality in order of their first covid-19 deaths:
The greens are still far below the average pneumonia deaths these countries usually report for the same time-period. In average at only 0.35 to usual times. Taking China, Philippines and Iran out for suspected lack of serious counting, it is even lower at 0.33 times to average pneumonia deaths. No real epidemy in 8 out 10 countries mostly affected by mortality.
And only in Itally and Spain mortality is 5.78 times to usual times! And there again only, if not taking out certain very limited 3 regions. (Lombary, Emilia Romagna, Pietmont and Madrid, Catalonia, Castile La Mancha respecively.)
As far as I know Hongkong, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all haven't had a draconian lock-down (combined at only 0.4 times the usual mortality rate!) as all the other countries. While Spain and Italy did.
But it more and more appears to me we are comparing apples and oranges here. And there is something completely differently at work in the only 2 really affected countries, until now. Nothing to do with complete lockdown or its lack.
Other countries with later first covid deaths at in average hit at 3.11 times the usual rates are Belgium, Luxembuorg, Netherlands and Switzerland (all in lockdown). While again all other countries (with more than 999 'infected') average at 0.35 times the usual pneumonia deaths for thier respective time periods. In the final total adding up to 0.08 times higher mortality from pneumonia than usually. Well within the usual fluctuation from year to year.
Wayne
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@pamojja -- My understanding is these countries had significant experience from previous coronavirus infections (early 2000's), and were acutely aware of the immense value of getting reliable diagnostic tests up and running as fast as humanly possible. They had already created governmental/private sector partnerships to respond to such a crisis, and were able to quickly deliver this diagnostic testing capability as they had hoped and prepared for.
By achieving this critical accomplishment early on, they were able to identify quite accurately who did, and who did not have the infection. With such extremely valuable information, they were able to target certain areas and certain groups of people who were either likely infected, or had a probability of becoming infected. They were then able to implement appropriate pinpointed quarantine measures, and were so successful, they were able to avoid much more draconian measures such as total nationwide lockdowns.
The S. Koreans knew how important their achievement was, and immediately offered their assistance and diagnositic testing capabilities to other countries, with the U.S. being the one I'm most aware of. This is where U.S. leadership failed miserably. Instead of accepting these offers of assistance, they instead declined, and decided to go their own way, and try to do this on their own. The dilly-dallying that ensued squandered several critical weeks, and paved the way for the tragic scenario we now see unfolding. More of what transpired is laid out in the below linked article. -- BTW, I think Sweden is doing as well as those Asian countries.
The coronavirus test that wasn’t: How federal health officials misled state scientists and derailed the best chance at containment -- Brett MurphyLetitia Stein -- USA TODAY
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andyguitar
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I am starting to have serious doubts about the way things are being done in the UK. The London Underground is still running so there are many thousands mixing every day. I also think that the full facts about who is likely to become critical and how the infection is spread are not being revealed. And looking at the infection and death rates in Italy and Spain, that have continued to rise despite lockdown, think it is probable the disease is mainly being spread by medical staff. Yes @Wayne Aisian countries are better placed to deal with an outbreak like this.
AnnieT
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I think the alluded to this today in the press conference when they said that they suspected the community spread to calm.
Wayne
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The following 2-min. video gives some of the details. S. Korea and U.S. had their first coronavirus case on the same day, Jan. 20. The outcomes in both countries are miles apart.
CNN reporter on early coronavirus testing: We blew it -- 2-minute video
In parts of the U.S. it is day 15 of a mandatory shelter in place (shutdown, lockdown or life interrupted). 
How much longer until those numbers, those models and those defensive tactics will come together to flatten the curve of the expanding belly of this beast of a virus? 
Here is one reporter’s thoughts about the questions that still need to be answered about those numbers, models and defensive tactics.
How much longer until those numbers, those models and those defensive tactics will come together to flatten the curve of the expanding belly of this beast of a virus? Here is one reporter’s thoughts about the questions that still need to be answered about those numbers, models and defensive tactics.
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Just came accross a news report from Northern Italy dated the 10th of January 2018 translated by deepl.com:
Just 2 question to ask oneself:
Just 2 question to ask oneself:
- Is the air-quality in your area similiar to those in Northern Italy or the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Barcelona?
- Does that report about the ICU situation in Lombardy from 2018 sound similiar to the situation of ICUs in your area?
Wayne
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The below linked article (which I consider a must read if you're not familiar with the topic) makes it appear wearing masks could soon be mandatory across much of the world. -- Th article gives a good review of why wearing masks were shunned in the beginning, and just to warn you, the details may be upsetting to read, just as they were for me. -- It's also looking like that recommended 6 feet of social distancing is well short of the 25-30 feet the virus can actually travel. Another reason to consider wearing a mask.
In other articles I just read this morning (that I feel connect well with the mask article), some health authorities now believe as many as 1/4 of people infected with the coronavirus are totally asymptomatic, while others infected are presenting with only very mild symptoms, and may not even know they have it. Also, people who have totally recovered from the virus can still be infectious for many days afterwards. -- All good reasons to always wear a mask.
Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face masks, and the rest of the world is coming around
Analysis by James Griffiths, CNN
Updated 12:21 PM ET, Wed April 1, 2020
Just discovered another article title on the Politico website, but have not yet read it:
Mask mystery: Why are U.S. officials dismissive of protective covering?
Other nations recommend wearing masks to avoid coronavirus, but the Trump administration has not seen a benefit.
In other articles I just read this morning (that I feel connect well with the mask article), some health authorities now believe as many as 1/4 of people infected with the coronavirus are totally asymptomatic, while others infected are presenting with only very mild symptoms, and may not even know they have it. Also, people who have totally recovered from the virus can still be infectious for many days afterwards. -- All good reasons to always wear a mask.
Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face masks, and the rest of the world is coming around
Analysis by James Griffiths, CNN
Updated 12:21 PM ET, Wed April 1, 2020
"Hong Kong (CNN) In the coming weeks, if they have not already, your government is likely to begin advising you to wear a face mask to protect against coronavirus.'
For those living in Asia, such announcements will be a vindication of a tactic that has been adopted across much of the region since the beginning of the crisis and appears to have been borne out by lower rates of infection and faster containment of outbreaks."
............................................Just discovered another article title on the Politico website, but have not yet read it:
Mask mystery: Why are U.S. officials dismissive of protective covering?
Other nations recommend wearing masks to avoid coronavirus, but the Trump administration has not seen a benefit.
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Wayne
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This NPR article touches on the topic of masks:
Fighting COVID-19 Is Like 'Whack-A-Mole,' Says Writer Who Warned Of A Pandemic
Introduction to Article:
Two years ago, science writer Ed Yong wrote an article for The Atlantic in which he warned that a new global pandemic was inevitable — and that the world would be unprepared for it when it arrived. Now, with the outbreak of COVID-19, much of what Yong warned about in his reporting has come true.
Yong says scientists are still working to understand how the novel coronavirus travels through air. His latest article for The Atlantic concerns whether or not people beyond health care workers and other front-line personnel should be wearing some sort of mask to help prevent spread of the coronavirus. Here's the title to the above linked "latest article":
Everyone Thinks They’re Right About Masks
How the coronavirus travels through the air has become one of the most divisive debates in this pandemic.
Fighting COVID-19 Is Like 'Whack-A-Mole,' Says Writer Who Warned Of A Pandemic
Introduction to Article:
Two years ago, science writer Ed Yong wrote an article for The Atlantic in which he warned that a new global pandemic was inevitable — and that the world would be unprepared for it when it arrived. Now, with the outbreak of COVID-19, much of what Yong warned about in his reporting has come true.
Yong says scientists are still working to understand how the novel coronavirus travels through air. His latest article for The Atlantic concerns whether or not people beyond health care workers and other front-line personnel should be wearing some sort of mask to help prevent spread of the coronavirus. Here's the title to the above linked "latest article":
Everyone Thinks They’re Right About Masks
How the coronavirus travels through the air has become one of the most divisive debates in this pandemic.
Wayne
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Regarding Facemasks
The following snippet is from this article: Face Masks Could Be Part of the Answer. The bolded part sums things up even more succinctly.
The following snippet is from this article: Face Masks Could Be Part of the Answer. The bolded part sums things up even more succinctly.
Taiwan offers a helpful model. Like the United States, Taiwan has seen an increased demand for face masks and disruptions in the supply chain. Prior to the pandemic, the majority of masks sold in Taiwan were manufactured elsewhere, with over 90% coming from China. In the past month, the Taiwanese government aggressively ramped up private manufacturing so that Taiwan can now make millions of masks per day and has enough N95 masks and hazmat suits for all their medical personnel... (each mask is sold for less than $0.25).
Through this system, more than 2.3 million people were given the ability to buy seven million masks over the course of a single week. Of note, Taiwan, a densely populated country of 23 million people about 80 miles off the coast of China, has had only 322 confirmed infections and five deaths due to Covid-19 as of March 31. And Taiwan has, for the most part, not closed schools or businesses and has not implemented a lockdown.
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Wayne
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Regarding Vitamin C
The below linked article touches on conventional medicine's avoidance of using IV Vit. C to treat sepsis (which many with the coronavirus die from ), even though it's well documented to save lives.
Modern Medicine’s Aversion to Vitamin C Therapy Results in a Half-Million Needless Deaths From Sepsis in U.S. Hospitals Every Year - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com
The below linked article touches on conventional medicine's avoidance of using IV Vit. C to treat sepsis (which many with the coronavirus die from ), even though it's well documented to save lives.
Modern Medicine’s Aversion to Vitamin C Therapy Results in a Half-Million Needless Deaths From Sepsis in U.S. Hospitals Every Year - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com
"While modern medicine casts a blind eye towards vitamin therapy and even exhibits open disdain for health practitioners and patients who incorporate vitamins into daily health regimens, it now appears a half-million Americans are losing their lives to a mortal bloodstream infection called sepsis that is induced by a deficiency of vitamin C.
After three decades, and more than one-hundred failed clinical trials of synthetic drugs to quell the most common cause of death in American hospitals, modern medicine is dragging its feet over what has now been demonstrated to be obvious — intravenous vitamin C demonstrably reduces death from sepsis. Sepsis patients are being brought back from the precipice of death, enough to make ICU nurses cry tears of joy. But medical overseers have attempted to obscure this fact.
Here is what modern medicine did to quash the compelling though preliminary data showing vitamin C saves lives of sepsis patients..."
Iritu1021
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I thought this article was excellent in explaining many of the mortality rate bias among countries.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ
ljimbo423
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A very good and detailed article on why the mortality rates are so different in many countries.
IThinkImTurningJapanese
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We have closed down some public events, and Tokyo has been advised to self-isolate over the weekend.
Perhaps the almost universal use of masks has helped?
pattismith
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The excess mortality is showing up in France since last week, particularly in some part of the country in the East and around Paris
The low mortality rate this winter (before covid arrived) is considered a result of a low intensity flu epidemic.
The low mortality rate this winter (before covid arrived) is considered a result of a low intensity flu epidemic.