alex3619
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This is what has been said right up until the eve of every major crisis. I think the former US head of energy, I forget his exact title and name, who was in Australia this last week, said it best. The US has got every energy forecast wrong ... every one. The reason is simple. They are looking in the mirror. They presume the future is like the past. It almost never is. Trends do not tell you what is really going on, because the data used does not capture every factor.I doubt it, i've heard our economy is rounding the bend and things are getting better! Should be, Obama has been in office for 6 years now, and another 2 to work his magic!
GG
Its the same as long term treasury forecasts. Almost every one is wrong. They simply have no way of using math to capture the complexity of what is happening. Its impossible, not just hard. This has been known to mathematicians for some decades, but most economists don't want to hear it .... they are modern day soothsayers and would loose a lot of prestige. Economics is still useful as the analyses help you devise strategies. What they cannot do is predict the future. Also many "laws" in economics are really rules of thumb, rough guesstimations.
The fundamental issues leading to the economic crises are unresolved, in fact they are even more deeply entrenched. Its not a question of whether there will be another big crisis, but when. The same issues that prevent economists from predicting the economic forecast prevent anyone from being sure about when and how the crisis will occur. The only certainty is that the crisis will occur.
The more the US allows its huge national debt to go unchecked, the bigger the risk from major national crisis. This threat is, in my opinion, capable of permanently destroying the US' position in the world. Its a much worse threat than terrorism.
If the US goes under economically, and I don't mean like the last minor crisis (yes, I consider it minor) then the whole world economy will sink into depression.
Just to be clear, all treasuries and most economists over the world have this blindspot. Its not just the US. Our current, ahem, illustrious government is lamenting that it wasn't able to meet its budget forecasts, from just months ago, and is about to pass a mini budget. And so it goes.
PS @ggingues, I am almost sure you were sarcastic, but I thought I should reply anyway as there are important and relevant points here, and its part of what is driving the scapegoating of the disabled.