Promise unfulfilled
I found reading the Komaroff review a dispiriting experience - there must have been 150 findings of biological abnormalities in CFS patients but almost of all them were different, with very few replications. A good number of the reports were from the 1990s, suggesting there had been no follow-up or replication for over a decade. It's no wonder there has been so little progress in understanding the pathophysiology of the illness when researchers have apparently failed to follow up on so many promising findings.
Just reading the titles and abstracts of cited papers in the review I was struck by how often I came across words and phrases like 'possible', 'preliminary', 'exploratory', 'suggests' and 'need confirmation' - and how rarely I found words like 'validated', 'confirmed' or 'replicated'. When I did my biochemistry degree, way back in the 80s, there were of course many preliminary and provisional findings in recent papers - it's the nature of science - but these were regularly followed by confirmation (or refutation) of the original findings. The lab where I did my final year project routinely tried to replicate important new findings in their field as soon as they were published.
It's only by confirming interesting findings that there can be progress: each validated finding a building block that other researchers can use to make further progress. Of course, CFS is phenomenally challenging to study as, are many chronic illnesses (all the low-hanging fruit has long gone), but without rigourously following up the leads that do exist to either prove or discount them, it's going to be tough to get anywhere. Meanwhile there is a vast arrary of unconfirmed findings that anyone can pick from to support just about any hypothesis on the illness.
What's needed is robust replication: repeating the findings on an independent sample of patients and controls, with a substantial sample size, and, ideally, by an independent research group.
Replications... sort of
The Komaroff paper, which was a perfectly good as a review, did include a few at least partial replications:
Low cortisol in CFS patients
A
small 1998 study found that CFS patients (n=21) had, on average, lower free urinary cortisol levels than healthy controls, while depressed patients had
higher cortisol levels than controls. Then a
2001 study by Wessely & Cleare confirmed the low cortisol levels in CFS patients in a large sampe (n=121, p<0.0005), though it didn't look at depressed patients.
However, a
later paper by the same authors (not in the Komaroff review) again found lower free urinary cortisol levels, but noted this wasn't corroborated by correspondingly lower levels of cortisol metabolites. (If urinary cortisol levels are reduced, cortisol metabolites in urine should be reduced too - but they weren't.)
>> Verdict: Urinary cortisol is lower in CFS patients but circulating cortisol in the body might not be - so low cortisol in patients has not yet been convincingly established.
Natural Killer Cell Cytotoxicity
The review cites several mall studies with evidence of reduced Natural Killer Cell Cytotoxicity (NKCC), though oddly omits the
ultimate bioabnormality paper, in 2010 by Fletcher and Klimas, which convincingly demonstrates lower average NKCC in CFS patients (n=176, p<0.0005). There was also a
later confirming paper by Brenu (n=95, p<0.05).
>> Verdict: :victory: Mean NKCC is lower in CFS patients than in healthy controls.
However, it's worth noting that there is still substantial overlap on NKCC levels between individual CFS patients and healthy controls.
Symptoms of autonomic dysfunction
This single
study from Julia Newton in 2007 gets a mention as it uses one patient sample (n=40) for an inital exploratory phase then a separate sample for the validation phase (n=30). This is a much better approach than the usual one in CFS papers where there isa single sample, and after reviewing the data a threshold that is set to give the maximum difference between patients and controls
in that particular sample. The Newton study uses a global measure of ANS, the Composite Autonomic Symptom Scale, 'COMPASS':
Total COMPASS score >32.5 was identified in phase 1 as a diagnostic criterion for autonomic dysfunction in CFS patients, and was shown in phase 2 to have a positive predictive value of 0.96 (95%CI 0.860.99)
>> Verdict: Great approach but awaits confirmation by further, larger studies.
Higher levels of lactate in brain ventricles
An initial study in 2010 found significantly higher levels of ventricular cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate in CFS compared with controls (n=17), confirmed by two further small studies, the
latest last month. High levels of lactate could represent problems with energy metabolism in the brains of CFS patients. All of these studies are quite small, presumably because the technology (Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Imagining, if you're interested) is expensive and hard to access. However, the authors have consistently pursued an important finding (elevated lactate) and found the same result each time.
>> Verdict: Needs larger studies to confirm, but as given the first finding was in 2010 this is as good as could be hoped for.
Promising Future?
What I find encouraging is that there seems to be a shift towards replication in the field. The three most important findings in recent years are probably XMRV, Rituximab and the Lights' gene expression on moderate exercise studies. There have already been numerous attempt to replicate the XMRV findings with the Mother of All Replication Studies (Lipkin) underway. Fluge & Mella, the authors of the amazing but small Rituximab study, are planning a large multi-centre trial to attempt replication of their initial findings, while Drs Enlander and Bell are planning a replication study in the US too. And the Lights are being funded by the NIH to validate the results of the old study with new patients. Hopefully attempts to replicate of important findings will become the norm in CFS research.