Baseline Walking Test results:
Pacing CBT GET Specialist
Baseline 314 333 312 326
52 weeks 334 354 379 348
the trial failed spectacularly.
They can manipulate the definitions and stats, and desperately spin the results as much as they want, but by any vaguely rational, empirical, and ethical real world standard these remain truly pathetic numbers, that simply do not deliver any practical, meaningful improvement whatsoever in the health or social and economic capacity of patients. Any relative advantage of CBT and/or GET over the others is absolutely minimal, a Pyrrhic statistical victory that offers no comfort to the advocates of those therapies.
Like I said before, they had to get a clear win on this, but even under the most favourable of conditions they have completely failed to deliver any substantial therapeutic result, let alone one free from serious methodological issues.
Bottom line is they had every chance to prove their theory, their model, and they failed. Big time.
Don't want to get people's hopes up too far or too quickly, but I genuinely cannot see the CBT/GET model recovering from this. This PACE result, on top of poor FINE results, and a whole lot of other stuff, means it is pretty well scientifically dead as a primary therapeutic or explanatory model.
How long this fact takes to filter through the system and make a positive change to the daily lives of us patients remains to be seen. The hard times are not over yet.
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I think we need to demand two follow up studies on this patient sample.
1. Objective activity meters (whichever version they used at the start) to measure the outcome
after treatment. Like they should have done without being asked.
2. A follow up assessment, including activity meters, at 104 (or maybe 156) weeks. Preferably by an independent team.
Let's get this one done and buried properly. So there are no questions left about how ineffectual this approach is.