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The coronavirus report behind the big shifts in policy by UK and US governments (Simon McG blog)

Simon

Simon

Senior Member
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Location
Monmouth, UK
The coronavirus report behind the big shifts in policy by UK and US governments (Simon McG blog)

Until very recently, the US and UK governments were taking a relatively gentle approach to controlling the new coronavirus epidemic – compared with most other governments around the world. A very recent report from UK academics shows that the strategy would probably have led to a huge number of deaths — well over a million in the US. The report is based on a detailed model using information from many sources. This blog explains how the model works, what it finds and why it is likely those numbers changed US and UK government plans for the better. It also explains the Yo-Yo control strategy that the UK government has started to mention.

Key points from the blog:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241421758701473796

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1241422328933859328

Images, in case they don't show
flatten annotate.jpg.png

flatten annotate.jpg


Also, the idea of yo-yo control: relaxing some of the measures when the health system is coping ok,, to give people some respite. It could be a long haul.
 
Hip

Hip

Senior Member
Messages
17,705
Simon said:
A very recent report from UK academics shows that the strategy would probably have led to a huge number of deaths — well over a million in the US.
Click to expand...

Very interesting.

I heard it was President Macron's threat, that he would close the border with the UK if Britain did not start following the closedown procedures used in Europe, which coerced the UK to finally adopt closedown. That and the statements by the WHO that the UK was going about infection control in the wrong way.

But perhaps it was this report which instead catalyzed a change in policy.

Would you have a link to the original report?


I find the proposed yo-yo strategy interesting.
 
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