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Dr Ian Lipkin has COVID-19

ebethc

Senior Member
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1,901
https://www.usatoday.com/story/ente...ser-dr-ian-lipkin-has-coronavirus/5076231002/

Lipkin declined to specify how or from whom he might have acquired the disease. "It doesn’t matter. This virus is all over the united States," he said.

Lipkin continued to push themes in the coronavirus battle during the segment, including red-flagging President Donald Trump's declaration about the country relaxing its stay-at-home policy by Easter weekend, April 11.

"We really don’t know when we’re going to get this under control," said Lipkin, who called for harmonizing restrictions across the country. "We have porous borders between states and cities, and unless we’re consistent, we’re not gonna get ahead of this thing."
 

ebethc

Senior Member
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Yes I think this is a real problem for the USA. Different states doing their own thing wont help the situation.

there's no leadership at the top, and the comment by lipkin highlights just one problem with this.. Der leader is playing states against each other, like contestants on the Apprentice... In this week's episode, they all have to scramble to get ventilators...
 

ljimbo423

Senior Member
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United States, New Hampshire
Lipkin declined to specify how or from whom he might have acquired the disease. "It doesn’t matter. This virus is all over the united States," he said.

I agree with Lipkin. I think the numbers that they are showing are many times less than the true amount of people infected or that have been infected and are now recovered.

Although, if there are 10 times as many people that have been or are sick. This brings the % of people that are critically ill or have died down dramatically.

Lipkin continued to push themes in the coronavirus battle during the segment, including red-flagging President Donald Trump's declaration about the country relaxing its stay-at-home policy by Easter weekend, April 11.

I don't think anybody can put a time table on when it will be safe to relax our "stay-at-home" policy. It all depends on what happens with this virus.
 

andyguitar

Moderator
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South east England
Although, if there are 10 times as many people that have been or are sick. This brings the % of people that are critically ill or have died down dramatically.
Yes the mortality rate is probably much less than it appears to be. I must say I am totally pissed off with the media not making this plain to people. They are hooked on bad news and doing daily body counts.
 

AnnieT

Senior Member
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157
Yes the mortality rate is probably much less than it appears to be. I must say I am totally pissed off with the media not making this plain to people. They are hooked on bad news and doing daily body counts.
I agree with this, and I was saying earlier that we should hear more about people who have had it and are now better ... but then I think a lot of people need the grim news in order to take it seriously.
 

ljimbo423

Senior Member
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United States, New Hampshire
Yes the mortality rate is probably much less than it appears to be. I must say I am totally pissed off with the media not making this plain to people. They are hooked on bad news and doing daily body counts.

Thank you! It's nice to hear somebody that's on the same page as I am!

I was on a tel-conference call with my state senators and representatives, that was statewide, several days ago.

Thankfully one of my representatives explained that the amount of people infected was much higher than what was reported. So that brought the percentage of deaths down considerably.

He also explained how a very small percentage of people were at a much higher risk for serious illness or death. At the time it was .5% (1 in 200) risk of death in my state (EDIT- it was the country not my state that he was referring to with the .5% risk of death). It was a very well balanced conference!
 
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ebethc

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@andyguitar @ljimbo423 @AnnieT

good points re the denominator (the total # of infections is unknown, therefore the mortality rate is skewed)..

however, part of the precaution is that this is a novel virus, so we just don't know that much about it (Dr Fauci emphasizes this...)... One thing that struck me was the fact that there are different strains, with some being more ferocious than..e.g., the "L" strain in China is stronger than the original strain, the "S" strain.

I don't know if you saw my other post re my health... I have the virus (haven't been tested, so not 100% sure BUT I fit the criteria mostly .. haven't been to iran or china .. lol)... I've been much sicker (shingles 2x in the past ~3yrs was WAY worse, and mono in 2001 was much, much worse...), but I've been really sick and after 2.5 wks in, my lungs still hurt/feel tight... I think it's going to be a long recovery, and I'm worried about co-infections and being re-infected (not enough data to know if this happens; just one small study).

So, on the one hand, I agree w not freaking out but I do think a nationwide stay-at-home for 4-8 wks is in order to nip it in the bud (although, sadly, we may be past that point)... dithering about is only going to prolong the misery of this thing... and there's going to be more dead people, and more damage to the economy... lose-lose.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ect-me-from-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted

"Genetic analysis by Chinese scientists of 103 samples of the virus, taken from patients in Wuhan and other cities, suggests that early on two main strains emerged, designated L and S. Although the L strain appeared to be more prevalent than the S strain (about 70% of the samples belonged to the former), the S branch of the virus was found to be the ancestral version.

The team behind this research suggested that this may indicate the L strain is more “aggressive”, either transmitting more easily or replicating faster inside the body. However, this theory is speculative at this stage – there haven’t yet been direct comparisons to see whether people who catch one version of the virus are more likely to pass it on or suffer more severe symptoms."
 

andyguitar

Moderator
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South east England
good points re the denominator (the total # of infections is unknown, therefore the mortality rate is skewed)..
So, on the one hand, I agree w not freaking out but I do think a nationwide stay-at-home for 4-8 wks is in order to nip it in the bud (although, sadly, we may be past that point
On the subject of testing: In the UK only patients who have been admitted to hospital are being tested. Mad! I'm sorry to say it but I think the USA is way beyond the point of containment. The 2 strain theory is the subject of debate among scientists over here so we will have to wait and see if the mutations are different strains or just more minor variations.
 

ebethc

Senior Member
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1,901
I'm sorry to say it but I think the USA is way beyond the point of containment.

yes, for sure... still, we should face it aggressively and in unison (among all states)... sadly, that's not going to happen... so, a half-a**ed quarantine (some states on, some states off... ending too soon, etc) that won't quell the infections well enough, and so will be dragged out, ultimately making the economic impact worse... Lose/Lose

EDIT: what is the UK doing? is there unity in the perception of what's going on, and what the approach should be?

The 2 strain theory is the subject of debate among scientists over here so we will have to wait and see if the mutations are different strains or just more minor variations.

yes, so much to learn.
 

andyguitar

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what is the UK doing? is there unity in the perception of what's going on, and what the approach should be?
There is a national policy for dealing with the situation which has been decided by our national government and is supported by the political opposition parties. Our National Health Service also has nationwide plan. Plan is to pretty much lock down the whole country. We are only allowed out for essential work, travel, food/medicine shopping, cannot meet with more than one other person and all pubs,bars,cafes,restaurants,cinemas and gyms are shut. Idea is to slow the spread of infection to prevent the health service being overwhelmed.
 

ebethc

Senior Member
Messages
1,901
@andyguitar

are ppl generally on board? I'm asking b/c I can't believe how f'ed up our country is about this (eg an evangelical school, LIberty University, has ~2k students back in the dorms; an evangelical church in Louisiana was open to 100s of ppl, defying orders) ... I don't understand it
 

andyguitar

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South east England
are ppl generally on board?
At the moment almost everyone is. But before the laws came into force people were taking steps to protect those most at risk, ie the care homes for seniors in my area had stopped any visiting over a week ago. And many sporting events were cancelled. So it was going in the right direction. Problem was some people were irresponsible so the Gov made the new laws yesterday. We knew a few days beforhand they were coming. Problem is I dont think people will put up with it for long. I see trouble ahead. Whats going on in the USA is bloody crazy,
 

andyguitar

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Location
South east England
When you look at the stats ... quite scary how few have been documented as 'recovered '
Ah but it depends how they are counting. I am fairly sure that only those who have been in hospital and recovered are counted. Which means the vast majority of the infected do not show up as recovered as they were ill at home.
 
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Sushi

Moderation Resource Albuquerque
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I agree with Lipkin. I think the numbers that they are showing are many times less than the true amount of people infected or that have been infected and are now recovered.

Although, if there are 10 times as many people that have been or are sick. This brings the % of people that are critically ill or have died down dramatically.
.
The New Mexico statistics are interesting. It has not (yet) been hit too hard and is testing more people who are not yet very ill.
Tests done 7793
Negative 7681
Positive 112
Deaths 1—man in late 70’s

Testing done at 17 testing centers and processed at four private labs. As of yesterday one of these labs was able to process 1000 tests per day instead of the previous 300.