A London Doctor Speaks The Truth about Covid 19

[bertiedog]

Last night I was listening to the phone in on Radio 5 live at 11.30 pm and there was this lovely 42 year old doctor who works in the ITU of an NHS London Hospital. It was terrifying what he was saying and he was literally begging people not to go out at all because he said very soon they would be in the position where 7 people needed a ventilator but they only had 1. He would have to make that choice and couldn't believe he would be ever in that position. He said he would have to let the others go.

The presenter asked him what he meant by that and the doctor clarified that they would just be left to die. It made my blood run cold to be honest. He even said he expected to die himself because he works every day without a break and they don't even have the necessary protective equipment. Many of his colleagues are self isolating leaving them short staffed or even coming in when unwell. He just kept saying if you value your life don't go out because he didn't want to have to make that sort of choice with any of the listeners. He said we weren't being given all the real facts as to what is going on in the hospitals especially in London and the Midlands which are hotspots.

Also he is having to treat young people but they stand a much better chance of coming off a ventilator and recovering whereas the over 65s stay on the ventilator unconscious for 3 weeks and then when they come off many of them die. Truly horrifying.

Please pass this on to any of your friends who think the country is overreacting. I heard somebody say this on Radio 5 this morning and there are many others who think in this dangerous way.

I am not trying to scare you but the young people especially need to know because it is natural when young that they think they are immortal.

Pam

 

[ryan31337]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...e-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

This reporting from a hospital in Lombardy seems to back up the gravity of these claims.

 

[Hip]

It's peculiar that we did not pick up on the critical need for ventilators two months ago; this need must have been known during the initial outbreak in Wuhan in January, and the World Health Organization were liaising with the Chinese medics, so they presumably would have known.

At present over 60 manufacturers in the UK are responding to the government's request on Tuesday to make more ventilators on an emergency schedule. It's estimated that the UK will need 20,000 ventilator machines.

 

[bertiedog]

At present over 60 manufacturers in the UK are responding to the government's request on Tuesday to make more ventilators on an emergency schedule. It's estimated that the UK will need 20,000 ventilator machines.

There were various news stories about this but they seemed to think the problem was that the parts needed come from China which is still an issue because China hasn't yet got manufacturing going to any great extent. Lets just hope some other great brains can make a copy of what is needed.

TBH the thought of being unconscious attached to a ventilator for up to 3 weeks doesn't really appeal so think I will carry on self isolating apart from a daily walk with my dog in a quiet park where I deliberately avoid other humans unless they are of the canine variety!

Just a thought does anybody have any idea as to why the death rate is so much higher in males than females?

Pam

 

[bertiedog]

Just heard some good news. The NHS has done a deal with all the private hospitals so that they will offer their facilities and thousands of extra healthcare workers as from next week who will also be able to treat COVID 19 patients. They also have lots of ventilators to use.

Pam

 

[junkcrap50]

It's peculiar that we did not pick up on the critical need for ventilators two months ago; this need must have been known during the initial outbreak in Wuhan in January, and the World Health Organization were liaising with the Chinese medics, so they presumably would have known.

The information blackout from China really hurt the world's response. They also delayed the WHO from entering for some time (at least a couple weeks). The issue and need of ventilators did not really come to the world's attention until Italy was widely infected and their hospitals overrun. No other country had such a widespread endemic as South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore had successful non-pharmaceutical interventions like contagion tracking and social distancing. Thirdly, decision makers in vulnerable countries had to come to their own realizations of the seriousness of the threat, which usually wasted several days (or weeks) until they took it seriously and overcame their denials.

The WHO's behavior during this has been peculiar, they refused to call it a pandemic until 1-2 weeks ago, for instance. You have to question whether or not they and their leaders have been influenced by China for PR purposes as that could explain their inept response.

 

[Hip]

The WHO's behavior during this has been peculiar, they refused to call it a pandemic until 1-2 weeks ago

I would guess that the WHO have to be careful not to create false alarms regarding declaring pandemics, otherwise in future they will not be believed. The two previous coronavirus outbreaks, SARS and MERS, where in fact contained and did not become pandemics, and it was hoped that SARS-CoV-2 might also be contained, but obviously we know now that containment failed, and the pandemic emerged.

The information blackout from China really hurt the world's response. They also delayed the WHO from entering for some time (at least a couple weeks). The issue and need of ventilators did not really come to the world's attention until Italy was widely infected and their hospitals overrun.

China have been praised for sharing info during the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak; they seemed to turn over a new leaf, compared to their much-condemned secrecy during the 2003 SARS outbreak.

So strange that they did not share the info about ventilators. Maybe they were embarrassed that they did not have enough, so kept that bit of info quiet.

I believe the much higher death rate in Wuhan compared to other Chinese cities comes down to fact that they did not have enough intensive care hospital beds in Wuhan.

 

[pattismith]

I would guess that the WHO have to be careful not to create false alarms regarding declaring pandemics, otherwise in future they will not be believed. The two previous coronavirus outbreaks, SARS and MERS, where in fact contained and did not become pandemics, and it was hoped that SARS-CoV-2 might also be contained, but obviously we know now that containment failed, and the pandemic emerged.

China have been praised for sharing info during the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak; they seemed to turn over a new leaf, compared to their much-condemned secrecy during the 2003 SARS outbreak.

So strange that they did not share the info about ventilators. Maybe they were embarrassed that they did not have enough, so kept that bit of info quiet.

I believe the much higher death rate in Wuhan compared to other Chinese cities comes down to fact that they did not have enough intensive care hospital beds in Wuhan.

Are you sure that China didn't share the info about ventilators?
In France they said the epidemic pike in Wuhan came from the fact that all severely ill people went to the hospital emergency service and spread the disease to other people (ill people that were sharing the emergency rooms but initially not ill from the covid-19) and to doctors very quickly.

The bad situation in Italy may have a similar origin (I don't know really the way covid emergencies were managed), but also comes from the fact Italian people had no mask protection from the start of the epidemic (whereas chinese have masks for everybody since the start and are used to it.)

The mortality rate is certainly the result of lack of ventilators, but also from the way testing is done.
Here what a German Professor answered to the question:

"How do you explain the low death rate in Germany compared to Italy, for example?

I'm not surprised at all. Because in Italy only the very difficult symptomatic cases were tested.
The current study from Shenzhen, for example, also found that children infect the pathogen as often as adults, but they develop only mild or no symptoms.
If one follows the study and assumes that 91 percent of Covid-19 only experience mild or moderate symptoms, the Italians initially focused only on the remaining nine percent.
In addition, the dead are also subsequently tested on Sars-CoV-2. In China, too, the number of deaths rose sharply at the beginning, but not the number of infections, because one also concentrated there on the dead. Now it's the other way around because there is a lot more testing in China."

We can suppose that German don't test the dead, which could explain their low rate!

 

[junkcrap50]

I would guess that the WHO have to be careful not to create false alarms regarding declaring pandemics, otherwise in future they will not be believed.

China have been praised for sharing info during the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak; they seemed to turn over a new leaf, compared to their much-condemned secrecy during the 2003 SARS outbreak.

You and I may both be right about WHO and China, respectively. It's all a matter of timing.

If one was following closely, allowing WHO/CDC to enter China at end of Feburary (just throwing out a date, don't know when China began cooperating) would have been viewed as too late and obstruction by China. A close follower could have seen this (widespread endemic in China) coming 3rd or 4th week in January. Wuhan had a big Lunar New Year dinner & festival Feb. 2nd. And close observers thought that was insane and foolish to allow it to go on.

So, if China's openness began when Italy was seeing starting to see hospital shortages and steady infection growth, observers who just began following or were only following casually, might view that as good cooperation and openness. They did send over mass PPE supplies and Chinese doctors to help.

However, due to the law of exponential growth, the 2 week period of viral shedding before symptoms (incubation), and long case duration (up to 6 weeks from symptoms to recovery), retropsective analysis is going to be very biased and overly critical with 20/20 hindsight (from the broad public & media). And proactive measures done early before any large infection & death rates will be seen as overreactions and damaging to the economy as the policies prevented italy like situation. (Already, people are comparing Korea & Italy rates without taking into the consideration any public health measure differences).

But yeah, all about timing and a few days difference matters a ton. Also, can't trust the Chinese, whether their truly being honest or not.

"How do you explain the low death rate in Germany compared to Italy, for example?

All depends on when public health policies were instituted, I believe. A 3-4 day delay in social distancing / lock downs could literally be the difference. Not to mention testing & case containment can have a larger than thought impact in the early stages. Germany could have begun proactive policies before any cases were in their country due to Italy being the canary.

People are foolishly comparing different rates in different countries to claim an infection, death, or R0 rate or % to match their biases. Some say the virus isn't deadly because look at Korea. So lockdowns are stupid & ruining the economy. Then others say it's very deadly because look at Italy. So lock it down everywhere forever. There could be a very big difference too in rates before and after hospitals & ventilators are full. The death rate could skyrocket without healthcare, but be very low if care is available.

I believe policy and cultural differences (smoking, availability of wearing masks all the time in Asia, etc) are largely to explain differences, rather than regional temperatures or population ages.

 

[pamojja]

People are foolishly comparing different rates in different countries to claim an infection, death, or R0 rate or % to match their biases.

Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

 

[Mouse girl]

Yep, I talked to a friend who works for a hospital chain in the us. And the real thing is to watch the interviews with the Italian docs. There will not be enough ventilators and yes, that means the docs will have to triage in the real sense which means that they will see how old someone is and what health issues they have and choose who has the best chance of surviving and the others have to just be left to die. It isn't a question of blaming China, it's the gov policies of not containing the virus or choosing to not purchase testing kits early on when they already knew the danger. Also, the general public are not generally that bright or concerned for others. It's one thing to put your own life at risk but if you aren't isolating, you could literally pass on a deadly disease to someone like me who is sick and alone and has to go out to buy food or to someone old with diabetes who has to go out and buy food because no one else will do it for them. Also the crazy anti science movement. I see people who say the biggest worry is that "they" might make people get life saving vaccines. Good god. It's really sickening.

I heard that more males die than females. I've been meaning to see if I could find some info on that but haven't gotten around to it. My mom was a nurse and back in the day, when more babies died, male babies had a much higher rate of dying due to having a less advanced immune system. Women get more auto immune diseases due to having a more advanced immune system. Now, i'm sick and tired and not a doctor, just love science so please excuse me not using the best language or having great info just bits and pieces I remember. I wish I had the health to learn more because medicine and disease are really fascinating and it's endless the amount of information to learn. Men often die of more virus related illnesses. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1919 killed the young and young men I believe because the virus did better with those who had high levels of iron. Old people, women who are having their periods had lower levels so they did better. Could also do with behavior. Women are much more responsible and concerned in general about others. Men don't take care of their health like women do, don't visit the doctor as often or eat as well, they drink more and many other factors of the testosterone brain having to do with putting themselves and others at risk.

 

[Learner1]

Could also do with behavior.

I live in a community where the coronavirus is very active. I've been out walking to get exercise, been to Best Buy as my cell phone was dying, to buy seeds and potting soil at the nursery and the grocery store and drug store.

Quite frankly, I'm shocked by how men in general seem to be oblivious to "social distancing" and staying 6 feet away from others. (Or maybe they just can't figure out how long 6 feet is...) They insist on walking right at me, brushing past me, and standing or sitting 2-3 feet away from others.

Women manage to give others some space, although I'm getting tired of young moms in pairs who don't seem to understand that pairing up with 2-4 children in tow is not social distancing either... from what I've gathered, they just may be the asymptomatic carriers... And then there were the dozen 16 year old tennis players standing closely together laughing who looked at me as if I was out of my mind when I said "Hey, that's not 6 feet apart. Young people get sick from coronavirus too and pass it to their loved ones who could die..." (This was in Kirkland, WA where most patients in Washington who died are from...)

This seems appropriate:

 

[Judee]

The NHS has done a deal with all the private hospitals so that they will offer their facilities and thousands of extra healthcare workers as from next week who will also be able to treat COVID 19 patients. They also have lots of ventilators to use.

So the UK has private hospitals as well? I did not know that. I thought all the medicine was government run.

 

[Wayne]

The WHO's behavior during this has been peculiar

I read the WHO is very cognizant China funds a significant portion of their budget, and not only do they not want to offend China, but even praised them in the earlier days for "their leadership". Which course is totally unfounded, unless you consider that Trump followed the same stick your head in the sand approach as the Chinese.

@Learner1 , @junkcrap50 -- I've been wondering how the ventilators would compare to HBOT. My best guess is that HBOT would likely be superior to a regular ventilator, but I just don't know. Also, I've seen prices for ventilators anywhere from $1,000 to $60,000. Would anybody know what a typical hospital ventilator goes for?

 

[pattismith]

I read somewhere the WHO is very cognizant that China funds a significant portion of their budget, and not only do they not want to offend China, but even praised them in the earlier days for "their leadership".

@Learner1 , @junkcrap50 -- I've been wondering how the ventilators would compare to HBOT. My best guess is that HBOT would likely be superior to a regular ventilator, but I just don't know. Also, I've seen prices for ventilators anywhere from $1,000 to $60,000. Would anybody know what a typical hospital ventilator goes for?

no it's not the same. Seriously ill patients need respiratory assistance (with a respirator machine that infuses O2 directly in the lungs, usually under anaesthesia) during 10/20 days.
In France, the government asked veterinary practices to declare their respiratory/anesthesia machines in case they need to requisition it!

 

[bertiedog]

So the UK has private hospitals as well? I did not know that. I thought all the medicine was government run.

Yes, absolutely there are many hundreds of them if not thousands, I don't actually know the numbers will have to look into it. They are all privately funded and patients either direct pay or have insurance. They are run by a few large groups, ie Shire Hospitals are one that I know of but there are many others. I think I heard on the news this morning that the private hospitals have 1,200 ventilators and 8000 extra beds along with 100,00 staff.

They were also talking about setting up hotels in London as makeshift hospitals but not sure if they are still thinking that way in view of the NHS' new deal.

One definite advantage of the NHS is that it is a central control point and can liase with every hospital in the country so nothing is fragmented. At least that is the theory but of course we have heard a lot about big issues of insufficient protective clothing for frontline staff. The people in charge of this are saying that they do have plenty of supplies but there has been a problem of actually getting it out to where it is needed which seems highly inefficient given the crisis we are all in.

The NHS is the biggest employee in Europe I believe just to give you some idea of problems that can arise from being such a huge organisation but lets hope the powers that be really are getting it together now for the sake of all those brave frontline workers which include the ambulance service, cleaners, doctors, nurses, clerical staff and many others which I suppose also includes the Police and probably will be the Army too.

The Government are now talking to us in a Churchillian way but that's probably because Boris Johnson wrote Churchill's biography! It was called The Churchill Factor btw.

Pam

 

[bertiedog]

People are foolishly comparing different rates in different countries to claim an infection, death, or R0 rate or % to match their biases.

The median age of the population will also play a big part here I would have thought.

Pam

 

[bertiedog]

Quite frankly, I'm shocked by how men in general seem to be oblivious to "social distancing" and staying 6 feet away from others. (Or maybe they just can't figure out how long 6 feet is...) They insist on walking right at me, brushing past me, and standing or sitting 2-3 feet away from others.

Its exactly the same here in my area of south east England. I walked my dog in a quiet park yesterday but looking around me NOBODY was social distancing and at the end of the walk in a quiet isolated garden there was a group of young people sitting in the sun, as close as they could be smoking weed. I counted 6 of them and at least one of them was a middle aged women who should have known better (not the weed).

So many are behaving in such an irresponsible manner that I cannot see how we can avoid a huge epidemic with an untold number of deaths. I just hope I am wrong.

On the way home in my car a repeat of Women's Hour was on the radio and it was mentioned firstly that there were no women at all in the Government's so called "war" cabinet which seems to be taking us back to the dark ages and secondly that a study was done on the behaviour of white males versus women in general on their attitude towards risk. The study found that in general women were far more risk adverse and would listen to advice and do all they could to avoid dangerous situations whereas the males had a very different attitude and tended to ignore warnings.

I haven't looked further into this but I guess there must be something in it because it was on a BBC radio station and they do check their sources.

It's Mothering Sunday today here in the UK and I am going to have to tell my sons to either stay outside or otherwise go into our garden and keep 2 metres away from me and their father! One of them definitely isn't good at following this advice but I think he is struggling with this massive change in their lifestyles. What has happened just brings up so many issues but of course some of them are far more deadly than others.

Pam

 

[Inara]

We can suppose that German don't test the dead, which could explain their low rate!

Yes, in Germany they barely test. Still now, you get ONLY tested if you have Fever and contact to someone with COVID
or
You were in a risk area.
This is like not testing at all.
No testing on medical staff. And I think they lie about the death numbers.

 

[Mouse girl]

There won't be enough ventilators. They just don't have enough and they won't be able to make them or pay for them fast enough. I believe the UK and the US have less vents per capita than Italy. So, don't rely on them to be there when they hit the peak. They will have to choose who gets treatment and who doesn't. Smoking weed while a respiratory deadly pandemic is going on is extremely stupid. It's really interesting to watch poor Dr Fauci's face as he stands there by the president of the us try not to react to the crazy things he is saying. I think Dr Fauci is so great. He knows he has to be very careful in how he deals with the stupidity so that he can speak to the public and get real information out there.

People in Los Angeles are keeping away from each other from what i've seen. It's rare to see people out walking even though there isn't a ban on that sort of thing. People in line to get groceries are all standing far apart, many with masks on. Must be so hard for those sick and dying, they can't even have a human touch or see a loved one as they lay there scared and suffering. It's really heartbreaking. Those damn fomites. We are having loads of rain now and cool weather which is bad for this too. This virus attaches to water droplets in the air but when it gets dry and hot, there is less transmission via air, not sure how that affects the fomites.