I have been thinking a lot about the CBT trials this week. What has hit me forcibly, for various reasons, is how off target much of the discussion is. The simple fact is that because of the nature of the therapeutic modality, the fact that it was unblinded and the choice of subjective primary outcome the PACE trial tells us nothing. Any attempt to extract an interpretation, whether positive or negative, is fruitless because we cannot tell why what happened did happen. Further analysis of details of trial structure is irrelevant. And it is not that the trial suffers from being too formal and ignoring patient individuality. I disagree (very amicably) with Charles on this but only in the sense that I think he is allowing the trial more than it deserves. The realities of individual patient experience are actually all we have to go on. The fact that a trial has a standard approved structure is no guarantee that it does not have a simple flaw that makes it uninterpretable. My NEJM RA rituximab trial had standard structure. The drug company wanted to say it proved that rituximab was specially effective with methotrexate. In fact the trial shows that rituximab is effective but nothing can be said about the use with methotrexate, because of a detail in the protocols. It took a court case to quash the patent the drug company wanted to get on combining rituximab with methotrexate. The devil is in the detail.
I respectfully disagree that further analysis of CBT trials has no value.
Even if the results are uninterpretable from a scientific or impartial perspective, that has not prevented their results from being interpreted and for that interpretation becoming a dogma that most doctors believe (even if they won't admit it to patients).
Had the PACE trial stuck to its original protocol and only a handful of participants met the stricter recovery threshold, it becomes much harder to sustain the idea that the only things holding patients back are fear of activity and deconditioning. As things stand, the PIs continue to claim that a quarter of patients who received CBT or GET got back to normal, and some clinicians have gone further claiming that 30-40% of patients recovered.
I worry about doctors who talk about goals and activity. Does a sick child want to be active again? Of course. But the path to more activity for ME patients is not more activity. After several decades of illness ones learns to be wary of what lies behind such talk.
This matters from a political and from a personal perspective. Good luck keeping your friends when they read that the Lancet has published data showing that psychotherapy and exercise can cure your condition. They've been handed an interpretation from an authoritative publication, and they believe it.
They don't question the methodology of the trial, they question you.