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Comments on Lombardi, et al in Science

Discussion in 'XMRV Research and Replication Studies' started by subtr4ct, May 13, 2010.

  1. ixchelkali

    ixchelkali Senior Member

    Long Beach, CA
    Nope, not an error

    Its not an error, just a bit unclear. The three negative PCR studies have been characterized as studies which failed to replicate the Lombardi, et al studys finding, meaning they ran the same tests and got different results. Mikovits is saying that they didnt fail to replicate their study, because they didnt try to replicate it. They dont qualify as replication studies because they didnt use the same techniques as the Lombardi, et al study.
  2. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    Gerwyn, it is not clear to me.

    The onus is on you to back up your statement:
    You haven't done a single thing to shown any evidence from research to back this up.

    Research data is relevant because the symptoms may not be random patterns but clusters that go together.

    However, if one wants to look at things simply theoretically: if the symptoms were distributed at random and each symptom was equally prevalent, and everyone had 4 of the 8 Fukuda symptoms but no more, on average 50% of those who satisfied Fukuda criteria would have PEM.

    However, some people can have 5, 6, 7 or 8 of the 8 symptoms.

    This is a uniform distribution. On average, patients would have 6 symptoms and on average 75% of the patients who satisfy the Fukuda criteria would have PEM.

    I have already pointed out that Leonard Jason's team found 3 of the people who satisfied the Canadian definition didn't satisfy the Fukuda criteria so I am not sure why you re-iterated it as fact that if one satisfied the Canadian criteria one had to satisfy the Fukuda.
    I gave you a link to the paper which looked at the issue - are you not curious with regard to what they found?
    If you think the paper was wrong, you should probably contact Leonard Jason to tell him (I'm not convinced it's wrong myself).
  3. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    I haven't read it but, copying it into Word, it's 1012 words. That might include a few numbers, etc., but it's a lot more than the 400-word limit they have (that's the first time I've seen a word limit for e-letters).
  4. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    There is no need for research MOST feduka presentations do not involve quoted meaningless percentage figures Jasons research is not given any statistical treatmentsthus is not scientific data. fact.i looked at the data 20 patients diagnosed retrospectively said that they complied with Fukuda that is 20 out of 20000 canvassed by phone.

    It is impossible to satisfy the CCC and not satisfy FUKUDA because FUKUDA only needs a sore throat,headache joint pain and poor sleep at a minimum with fatigue.You could diagnose 10000 patients as having CFS by Fuduka criteria without any of them needing PEM at all.

    I know what the retrospective trawl found that is why I know the conclusions could be produced by pure chance without a p value and confidence intervals it is not possible to tell.Scientific data is presented in terms of probability.Ergo his data is not scientific data-fact.You are welcome to think what you like.

    A diagnosis under CCC automatically qualifies as CFS diagnosed by FUKUDA-fact-again you are welcome to think what you like.

    Research data without statistical treatment is in fact completely irrelevant.

    Quoting meaningless percentage figures is not research at are assuming a Gaussian distribution without any evidence that it is.Based on this assumption you attempt to quote concrete figures.

    Neither CFS or Feduka criteria exist in mind independent terms.Statistics are only designed to look at mind independent entities.

    What you are effectively trying to do is to apply a statistical treatment to socially constructed labels.

    This is what psychologists and psychiatrists often do without being aware of what they are doing
  5. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    That's so convincing ... not.
    Who do you think you are convincing? If you think probability/statistics explains what you say, give more details. What you say wouldn't get accepted anywhere - you're not saying anything specific to back up your contention that
    Re-reading it, you say that someone could satisfy the Fukuda criteria without satisfying the PEM criteria. No one is denying this. It's a question of how many. As I say, I haven't seen you give any evidence for this claim. Other people reading this might be taken in and think it's fact.

    In the Chicago study, they found:
    This might be one of the reasons why 3 people who satisfied the Canadian case definition, didn't satisfy the Fukuda criteria.

    As I say, the onus is on you to back up what you claimed. I accept that the two studies I quoted don't prove anything. But they're better evidence than what you have given which seems to be nothing.

    A uniform distribution isn't a Gaussian distribution.

    I don't know if you use big terms and make bland general statements, that you can brush aside any questions.
    The onus remains on you to back up your contention and I haven't seen any evidence you have done it. Instead, you prefer to throw sh*t at anyone who questions you. It's a simple question: what evidence or reason do you have for saying that:
    I will accept theoretical reasons if that is where you are coming from.
  6. Kelly


    I am quite conversant in what an epidemiologist does. Perhaps you should alert Harvard. Maybe they are not.
  7. Kelly


    Here is part of Wessely's CV:

    Professor Simon Wessely MA, BM BCh, MSc, MD, FRCP, FRCPsych, F Med Sci. Vice Dean, Academic Psychiatry, Teaching and Training: Institute of Psychiatry Head, Department of Psychological Medicine, Institute of Psychiatry Director, King’s Centre for Military Health Research, Institute of Psychiatry, King’s College London

    Simon Wessely is Professor of Psychological Medicine at the Institute of Psychiatry, King’s College London, and Honorary Consultant Psychiatrist at King’s and Maudsley Hospitals... He then attended clinical school at Oxford, followed by two years on a medical rotation in Newcastle being a real doctor and getting medical membership. However, he always intended to study psychiatry, and started training at the Maudsley in 1984, and has not really left Camberwell since, other than a year at the National Hospital for Neurology, and a year studying epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene.
  8. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    You cant become an epidemiologist in a year what qualification did he getand what papers has he published?
  9. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    Everyone has to do a medical rotation
  10. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    In that case you know that simon Wesselly is not one He gave a talk at Harvard giving them his self conferred title.Does that make him an epidemiologist?
  11. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    FUKUDA versus CCC

    The parts colored red represent the requirements for a diagnosis of CFS by FUKUDA criteria

    1. Fatigue: The patient must have a significant degree of new onset, unexplained, persistent, or
    recurrent physical and mental fatigue that substantially reduces activity level.
    __ 2. PostExertional
    Malaise and/or Fatigue: There is an inappropriate loss of physical and
    mental stamina, rapid muscular and cognitive fatigability, post exertional malaise and/or fatigue
    and/or pain and a tendency for other associated symptoms within the patients cluster of
    symptoms to worsen. There is a pathologically slow recovery period usually
    24 hours or longer.
    __ 3. Sleep Dysfunction:* There is unrefreshed sleep or sleep quantity or rhythm disturbances such
    as reversed or chaotic diurnal sleep rhythms.
    __ 4. Pain:* There is a significant degree of myalgia. Pain can be experienced in the muscles, and/or
    and is often widespread and migratory in nature. Often there are significant headaches of
    new type, pattern or severity.

    __ 5. Neurological/Cognitive Manifestations: Two or more of the following difficulties
    should be present: confusion, impairment of concentration and shortterm
    memory consolidation,
    disorientation, difficulty with information processing, categorizing and word retrieval, and
    perceptual and sensory disturbances e.g. spatial instability and disorientation and inability to
    focus vision. Ataxia, muscle weakness and fasciculations are common. There may be overload 1
    phenomena: cognitive, sensory e.g. photophobia and hypersensitivity to noise and/
    or emotional
    overload, which may lead to crash 2 periods and/or anxiety.
    __ 6. At Least One Symptom from Two of the Following Categories:
    __ a. Autonomic Manifestations: orthostatic intolerance neurally
    mediated hypotension
    (NMH), postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), delayed postural hypotension;
    extreme pallor; nausea and irritable bowel syndrome; urinary frequency
    and bladder dysfunction; palpitations with or without cardiac arrhythmias; exertional
    __ b. Neuroendocrine Manifestations: loss of thermostatic stability subnormal body
    temperature and marked diurnal fluctuation, sweating episodes, recurrent feelings of
    feverishness and cold extremities; intolerance of extremes of heat and cold; marked
    weight change anorexia
    or abnormal appetite; loss of adaptability and worsening of
    symptoms with stress.
    __ c. Immune Manifestations: tender lymph nodes, recurrent sore throat, recurrent flulike
    symptoms, general malaise, new sensitivities to food, medications and/or chemicals.
    __ 7. The illness persists for at least six months: It usually has a distinct onset, **although it
    may be gradual. Preliminary diagnosis may be possible earlier. Three months is appropriate for
    To be included, the symptoms must have begun or have been significantly altered after the onset of this illness. It is
    unlikely that a patient will suffer from all symptoms in criteria 5 & 6. The disturbances tend to form symptom clus
  12. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    Kelly, I agree with you - I think it is misleading to say that Wessely has no knowledge of epidemiology.

    Although Gerwyn has tried to explain where he was coming from, which is useful.
  13. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    Let's go through them and count up the minimum number out of the 8 Fukuda criteria.

    From what I can see (I'm presuming Leonard Jason is correct so only doing this quickly):

    After number 1: 0

    After number 2: 0
    because, as I pointed out:
    After number 3: 0 (criteria is unfreshing sleep)

    After number 4: 1

    After number 5: 1 (they don't have to have memory or concentration problems to satisfy the criteria)

    After number 6: 1

    So somebody can satisfy the Canadian criteria and not satisfy the Fukuda criteria.
    And Leonard Jason found 3. It was only a small group 3/23 (13%).

    My guess in the clinic, where patients are on average, more severely affected than in a random, population study, the percentage would be less. But that's not the same as saying everyone who satisfies the Canadian Case Definition has to, by definition, satisfy the Fukuda criteria.
  14. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    This is what the canadian criteria ACTUALLY say about fatigue

    1. Fatigue: The patient must have a significant degree of new onset, unexplained, persistent, or
    recurrent physical and mental fatigue that substantially reduces activity level.

    Jason is using his subjective interpretation of that just as well he does not do any diagnosing!

    If they did not have PEM they would not qualify for CCC in the first place whatever they endorsed!

    Biological paramters invariably display a normal or discontinuous distribution not a rectangular distribution so i,m afraid the sh*t is not coming from are assuming a rectangular distribution without any evidence to back that up

    Quoting percentages without giving statistical treatment of the data is meaningless Sh*t.

    It is impossible to satisfy CCC and not satisfy at least a minimum FEDUKA requirement----FACT.

    You can produce statistical data using parametric or non parametric tests what you cant do is guess.

    You were guessing .

    That is without even considering that the study was based on subjective self reporting with all the demand characteristics associated with that.

    Meaningless data is not evidence of any kind.

    It is not that the data does not prove anything it is totally meaningless in statistical terms

    I think that you have produced a great many statements without evidence to back them up
  15. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    I gave that as one example. I didn't say that was actually what was happening. My point was that if that was the distribution, that's what would happen.

    Feel free to explain to me how assuming the distribution of the symptoms of those who satisfy the Fukuda definition (i.e. has at least 4 out of the 8 symptoms) is normally distributed, proves your point.

    You were the person who made the claim that:
    and you haven't backed it up. You've written plenty in the meantime.

    You're the person who is guessing.
    You are saying:
    purely based on a guess from what I can see. You certainly haven't said anything to justify it that I have seen.
  16. Dr. Yes

    Dr. Yes Shame on You

    Mummy! Daddy!! Why are you fighting? Does it mean you don't love each other??

  17. Adam


    Sheffield UK
    No Dr.Yes, it's not so bad. I know Mummy and Daddy and I know they are going to kiss and make up, aren't you Mummy and Daddy?
  18. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    You clearly stated your figures based on your assumption of a rectangular distribution as fact.That distribution has never been seen in biological systems.You accused me of talking Sh*t when you had no evidence to back up your claim whatsover

    You were therrefore guessing while purporting to provide objective quoted figures based on no statistical data.That is Sh*t

    I did not say the symptoms were normally distributed .You said that they were rectangually distributed

    You have written reams and backed up nothing at al.The symptoms of poor concentration paiful joints poor sleep sore throats and tiredness in a population are far more common than PEM.Therefore the chance of a person presenting with those symptoms and recieving a diagnosis of CFS under Fukuda are far higher than someone presenting with PEM.This why fewer patients qualify for a diagnosis of ME under the CCC criteria than FUKUDA
  19. Gerwyn

    Gerwyn Guest

    1235 give you Fukuda.If not 2 then not ccc I cant see how you are having trouble with that. If they did not have 1 they qualify for neither CCC or FUKUDA(the definitions of fatigue are exactly the same in both despite what Jason says).If they do not have 2 they do not have ccc.Jason is not a clinician so I,m wondering why you are assuming he got a diagnosis correct? As I keep telling you self reporting is not a reliable way of making a diagnosis and quoting percentage figures are meaningless.

    The parts coloured in red provide a diagnosis of FUKUDA CFS fact.Are you really trying to tell me that there is any difference between sleep dysfunction and unrefreshing sleep!Last time I checked the former caused the latter!
  20. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

    Apologies if I was not clear.
    I know perfectly well the chances are that it is not a uniform distribution but perhaps I was not clear.
    I was just using that as an example - the simplest back of the envelope calculation. I was showing that you would need to assume it wasn't uniform to get what you claimed - trying to prod you to actually back up your claim.

    Finally, after I don't know how many opportunities, you actually give your reasoning for your claim.

    However, you can't generalise from those figures. Those are for the general population. What the Fukuda definition is looking at is the group that have chronic debilitating fatigue of 6 months duration, etc. So only data from this group is relevant.

    Then the symptoms require at least 4 symptoms out of the 8. The people who have one symptom may not have 3 others.

    So for example, the two studies I quoted found that
    (i) 75% of those who satisfied the Fukuda definition in the Chicago random population study.

    (ii) In the Belgium study,
    97.3% of those who satisfied the Fukuda criteria had post-exertional malaise.

    So anyway, we now know where your claim was from. I thought you might have studies you knew about.

    I remain happy that I challenged you asking you for the evidence for the claim. It may be true but it is based on a number of assumptions. The existing data that I can think of does not back up the claim.

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