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Be careful, your love of science looks a lot like religion

alex3619

Senior Member
Messages
13,810
Location
Logan, Queensland, Australia
@barbc56

Science as it should be is vastly different from science being promoted by people who never question it, from decisions being made based on any old claim, from promotion of studies that are highly dubious but no questions are asked. Scientism is alive and well. We discuss it a lot on these forums, though we usually don't label it as scientism. For example, look at unquestioning promotion of the PACE trial by the SMC.

Differentiating between science and scientism is very much the difference between the philosophy of knowledge and the dogmatic religion of knowledge.

Vaccines are KNOWN to be dangerous. Not all, not all the time, not for all individuals, but they do produce some serious and lethal reactions from time to time.

Against this we have the issue that a number of major lethal and disabling diseases are now rare to nonexistent, though the pathogens may be kept in various labs. Countless millions are alive now who would not be without vaccines, and millions more are not ravaged by the impact of preventable disease.

The value of vaccines lies in population health. The danger of vaccines lies in individual health issues. The two are vastly different in how you think, research and communicate.

On a population level the value of vaccines outweighs the risk. On an individual level its a gamble. Its a good gamble usually, unless you have specific reasons to think otherwise, such as adverse reactions to a similar vaccine. In the case of ME with many of us losing seroconversion I think the risk/reward ratio is even more skewed than normal.

What is wrong about scientism is it does not ask questions. It accepts, and promotes. I distinguish between scientism zealots, and sceptical (in the classic sense, not denialist) thinkers. Scientists should, or at least research scientists, in an ideal world, all be professional sceptics. Sadly that is not always the case.

Much of science as practiced is not about questioning at all. Its about creating and selling product.

As for Zombie- or Mc-Science, this is about distorting the scientific base by bureaucratic, political or funding biases. McScience in particular is about production of research that supports corporate interests, with all the bias risks that involves. Big companies, and this often includes pharma, can do all sorts of things this way. This has included, in the past, commissioning six studies and only publishing the most favourable. Pharma has had staggering fines levied at it, but many companies keep getting fined for even newer offenses. I identify a trend of funding studies in CBT, for example, that seem to be less than properly scrutinized, and can by virtue of having many many studies look to the average person like there is a lot of evidence.

The classic example is of course Big Tobacco and the decades long fight to prevent tobacco being seen as dangerous. They funded study after study.

Not all companies engage in these practices. Those that do don't do it all the time. Yet it keeps being found out.

My main point is this: the extreme views are often subject to huge bias. Realistic views are often somewhere in the middle. They are not immune from bias either, sad as it is to say. Bias is always a risk. One antidote is to constantly question things, and especially the important things.

For anyone thinking science is only about evidence and reason, mathematics and logic, you might want to read discussions on the theories of Kuhn and Lakatos, as opposed to Popper. Popperian science is an ideal, the real world is often messy and irrational. Schools of scientific thought can fight rearguard actions for decades rather than accept being obsolete.
 
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barbc56

Senior Member
Messages
3,657
I think we are saying much of the same thing.

You say science vs. scientism. I say evidence based medicine vs. science based medicine which takes EBM a step further. It goes beyond having blind faith in RCTs, and does address political, social and moral issues.

I'm up way to late so will stop here and if needed can put in some citations at a later time. Maybe after a good night's sleep. Probably earlier as I think I've forgotten what a good night's sleep even is.:lol:

Bottom line? I think we are just using different terms for the same thing and agree more than disagree.

Barb :sleep::sleep::sleep:
 

TiredSam

The wise nematode hibernates
Messages
2,677
Location
Germany
I agree that alex and barb seem to be agreeing, and I agree with them.

Science is the only belief system that doesn't require faith.

So I'll have that one please.
 

natasa778

Senior Member
Messages
1,774
Science is the only belief system that doesn't require faith.


Not true. You - as the one being 'served' science - do need lots of faith in those who carry out and present the results of their research to you.

You need faith in scientists not manipulating and hiding results for starters. (as happened in at least one major vaccine safety study)

You also need faith in the competency (not chosing inferior methods, poor study design and analysis) and neutrality (lack of bias in interpreting the results) of those 'doing' the science.
 

TiredSam

The wise nematode hibernates
Messages
2,677
Location
Germany
Not true. You - as the one being 'served' science - do need lots of faith in those who carry out and present the results of their research to you.

You need faith in scientists not manipulating and hiding results for starters. (as happened in at least one major vaccine safety study)

You also need faith in the competency (not chosing inferior methods, poor study design and analysis) and neutrality (lack of bias in interpreting the results) of those 'doing' the science.

You do not need faith in the competency of those doing the science. We are free to analyse any scientific article / report for bias, lack of neutrality etc, rather than having faith in the compentency of the "experts" who published it. It's what we do at PR all the time, eg with the PACE trials.

Scientists manipulating and hiding their results can be caught out by peer review or their experiments being repeated by other interested scientists. Lay people can buy books at amazon on how statistics are commonly misrepresented, manipulated or misreported so they can watch out for it, or understand the watchdog websites, radio and TV programs that look out for it.

Until this thread I didn't know that "scientism" was a word or a thing. I'm sure that once someone decides they'd rather rely on science than other belief systems then heuristics come into play and they are more likely to accept results from scientists without examining all the details, and I'm sure I'm guilty of that a lot of the time too. But the point is that at any time I or anyone else who wants to investigate further can check / verify the data or evidence far more easily than they can in any other belief system. Even if that isn't always a 100% failsafe guarantee, what do you have to offer that's better?

The fact that "scientism" is a word with negative connotations makes science fairly unique, in many other belief systems "faith", ie the willingness to accept without evidence, is presented as a virtue. In psychoquackery the phrase "being open" is used. I'll take scientific inquiry as the best we've got at the moment.
 

leokitten

Senior Member
Messages
1,595
Location
U.S.
Those of you who are in disbelief or have serious doubt that climate change is man-made are just not keeping up with the science and overwhelming results of studies in this field.

I urge you to become better informed in the areas of climate research in the same way that you try to be informed on ME/CFS research as well as your continual calls for robust scientific research when studying this disease. To me you just sound like the psychobabblers in the ME world, ignorant, uninformed, brainwashed.

To me climate deniers are just like evolution deniers, yes we cannot prove 100% that the Darwinian theory of evolution is true, but every single piece of scientific evidence to date has shown that it is. Also in the last decade even completely different areas of biological research have independently shown that it is. When different areas of science converge on the same conclusion this provides the strongest evidence. I'm talking about sequencing of 1000s of genomes of all different species in existence as well as extinct and the results of genomic comparisons showing exactly on a molecular and genetic level that evolution is what is happening. We then have genomics fully supporting the data we already had from anatomy and historical fossil records, all providing overwhelming evidence that evolution is a fact.

If you actually read the scientific literature on climate you would see the same thing. Every single independent research program from all over the world, each performing their own independent large-scale studies on completely different aspects of climate, have all shown in concordance that climate change occurring, accelerating at a rate never seen in the history of this Earth (that we can measure), and happening in sync with the rise in CO2 levels.

I've read much of the climate change literature, such as papers coming from the big programs at NASA and NOAA, from Europe and Australia, and from the UN IPCC. I've also read many of the ridiculous papers put out by deniers funded by oil and gas industry billionaires (e.g. Koch brothers) who have a vested interest in denying man-made climate change. I welcome you to read any of these papers because they are not science, they are carefully guised pieces of propaganda which on the surface look scientific but once I started digging and looking at the data and references as well as looking for independent studies showing similar conclusions I found that all of it is just bullshit. It's all a lie that they are spinning to brainwash people who already want to believe that there is scientific evidence disputing man-made climate change. Doesn't this sound just like e.g. the Lightning Process or other psychobabble?

The deniers have spent in total $0 in scientific research to try and show that climate change isn't man-made. Yet the governments across the world have spent billions and billions of dollars doing the most robust and large-scale scientific research I have ever seen proving not only that climate change is happening, but happening right in lock step with the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, and happening so fast that it's virtually impossible it's due to natural fluctuations. Guess what, there is no other source on Earth putting CO2 in the atmosphere at such a rate to increase it so fast.

Most importantly our governments have ZERO vested interest in proving climate change is man-made, in fact they would've loved if it weren't because it's one of the most difficult problems our human race is ever going to face. All they did was fund research to acquire data on all aspects of our climate and for the past many decades the data just keeps coming back in alarming fashion that it is.

I agree that we shouldn't blindly believe in anything, but sorry no one is doing that. The entire scientific community is checking and testing each other's results and critiquing the design of other's experiments and still . Deniers will point out to a few flawed studies or exaggerated results but like any field of science there will always be this 1% that is bad, that doesn't mean the 99% is wrong!

For those of you who don't want to read the latest major studies that came out from the hundreds of teams in the Arctic and Antarctic, just watch programs like VICE, they did two episodes on Greenland and Antartica. It's absolutely frightening what's happening, in the past couple years the data coming in and phenomena they've seen are showing that climate is changing at the poles at a rate far beyond even the worst case scenario scientific models. In 2013 alone a piece of ice the size of Germany broke off a major glacier shocking everyone and ice all over the west side of Antartica is thinning at an alarming rate.

VICE Greenland is Melting
http://www.vice.com/video/greenland-is-melting-bonded-labor-000

VICE Our Rising Oceans
https://news.vice.com/article/antar...e-sea-level-rise-to-the-us-than-anywhere-else
http://www.vice.com/read/watch-shane-smith-debrief-our-new-hbo-episode-about-climate-change-111

With the recent data of the last few years scientists now believe that it's not possible to stop the poles from melting away, we can only try to slow it down. This will be an absolute calamity for our world as sea levels will rise by many meters. And for you climate deniers by natural fluctuations of the distance of the Earth from the Sun we are supposed to be heading for another ice age, not the reverse!
 
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whodathunkit

Senior Member
Messages
1,160
Global warming is neither a proven fact nor disproved. Its an hypothesis with a lot of supporting data, but its very hard to properly test. Dealing with it is, in my view, inappropriate if dealt with from a basis of either zeal or denial. Its about risk management. People who want to make sweeping changes have to consider other factors. People who want to do nothing are gambling with the future of the world. There is no sure or proven path here.
:thumbsup::thumbsup: Great, Alex!

However, IMHO a distinction should be made between anthropogenic global warming and the normal decades/centuries/millenia worth of climate fluctuations due to the sun. The biggest problem right now is that humans are both myopic and egocentric, and we don't make too much allowance for those problems with our worldview. Consequently, when considering something that is threatening like climate change, we don't allow for factors outside our control (like the fluctuations in energy output by the sun) or whether or not we should address these larger factors without incurring more risk, and instead assume we can and should be able to control everything. Becuz we's so smartz n' all (egocentric).

But WTH happens if we put all these sweeping measures in place to counteract "global warming" (for example, manufactured reflective clouds to deflect some of the rays/heat of the sun) and then suddenly the sun slows output on us (as it could be doing right now), to the point that we enter another Little Ice Age? Or, conversely, we take some measure to counteract a Little Ice Age and things heat up again, quickly and unexpectedly? Very large scale solutions to sweeping problems like this are short-sighted (myopic) because they can't be easily or quickly reversed to undo the situation. And they usually come with their own new set of problems (e.g., toxic rain from the reflective clouds, etc.). Which, of course, is always unexpected. :meh:

IMO better to harden our infrastructure and make ourselves less vulnerable to the vagaries of forces outside our control. To bring this back around to the original theme of the thread: solutions like more and faster research into nano materials that could make solar panels that extract energy from even weak UV light, so that even people in the extreme Northern and Southern hemispheres could also get use from solar technology during a solar minimum. Research, manufacture, and propagate better and cheaper technology that allows people to recycle and water on a smaller scale (e.g., at the household/building level) rather than using increasingly problematic municipal water supplies that increasingly shift funds to employing bureaucrats rather than repairing and upgrading technology. Research, manufacture, and create incentives that make it worthwhile for people to grow healthy staple foods at the household level (e.g., hydroponcially). Stuff like that will make us more prosperous and much less vulnerable to knee-jerk solutions to perceived catastrophes like "global warming".
 
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whodathunkit

Senior Member
Messages
1,160
Those of you who are in disbelief or have serious doubt that climate change is man-made are just not keeping up the science and overwhelming results of studies in this field.

I urge you to become better informed in the areas of climate research
leokitten, respectfully, so not true. I urge you the same.
 

leokitten

Senior Member
Messages
1,595
Location
U.S.
leokitten, respectfully, so not true. I urge you the same.

No sorry, you are completely and utterly misinformed and by the brevity of your response just shows you have nothing to stand on.

I am a scientist of many years, work at the NIH, have spent my career working in cancer and genomic research and i actually have read the climate change literature on BOTH SIDES and it follows the exact same path as the evolution "debate", there is none.
 

whodathunkit

Senior Member
Messages
1,160
No sorry, you are completely and utterly misinformed and by the brevity of your response just shows you have nothing to stand on.
The brevity of my response indicates nothing more than I'm unwilling to get into a lengthy, time-consuming debate with someone who is apparently a global warming zealot, which is an unproductive waste of time. We can debate until the cows come home and neither of us will get anywhere in changing the other's mind.

FWIW, I'm much less convinced of anthropogenic global warming than global warming in general. A naturally-occurring, longer-term warming of the planet due to cosmic factor could be happening. But we live much too short lifespans to know for sure, so I'm unwilling to accept it as a fact carved in stone. And recent data about the thickening of the Antarctic ice cap (rather than short term, natural fluctuations like melting and formation of specific ice shelfs, or the Arctic ice) as well as sunspot data, are IMO fairly ominous.

BTW, I don't mean zealot as a perjorative, because I like you and get a lot of good info out of your posts, @leokitten. I don't mean to turn this into a feud. I use the word in the context of its classic definition, which is essentially that someone is utterly convinced of his/her own rightness, and therefore is not amenable to persuasion about any other POV.

Anyway, for that reason I debated even replying to your post. Now I wish I hadn't done it. But sometimes it's hard to let opinions stated as fact, or opinons supported by possibly biased/poorly analyzed data, go by unremarked. Doctors do that all the time with ME/CFS (see recent PR threads about cognitive therapy for ME/CFS, etc.), and it also happens A LOT with the current topic.

Peace out. :)
 

Snowdrop

Rebel without a biscuit
Messages
2,933
It could be we are talking across the issue.

It's seems to me you are talking about what these words mean in theory because of course science is based on 'curiosity/inquiry/testing a hypothesis. You allude to times when this is not so when you talk about money and political motives. This is what is meant by bringing up the subject. Where you say this is not science well, it's not proper science but that is the practicality of how it is pursued. Not always but often enough and especially in certain disciplines of science to merit the accusation.

As for Dogma. Again, in theory it implies possibly a forever kind of time frame to the assertion. In practice that'r not really the case and people all the time refer to Dogma as the current orthodoxy. It can be used in a secular way not just religious.
 

alex3619

Senior Member
Messages
13,810
Location
Logan, Queensland, Australia
With the recent data of the last few years scientists now believe that it's not possible to stop the poles from melting away, we can only try to slow it down. This will be an absolute calamity for our world as sea levels will rise by many meters
This is the way the data is shaping up. Ice can absorb a lot of heat. In a warming world its a heat buffer, keeping temperature down. If the ice disappears we not only have to worry about the melted ice and sea levels, we have to worry about thermal expansion of the oceans.

The vast majority of data and studies do show that the world is warming, and the most credible answer is man induced changes to climate. Yet this does not mean its proven, only that its by far the most dominant view, with by far the majority of the evidence supporting it. My position is currently that even if you do not believe its likely you still need to support some degree of mitigation of these issues.

Since the notion of global warming and climate change became a world focus the sun has been monitored very very closely. Postulating cosmic causes is speculating that there are other factors we don't know about. Its possible. Its not likely. There is some data that the sun goes through warmer and colder periods, but its not conclusive and its on geological time, not years, aside from the sunspot cycle.

If I were to bet I would bet we can no longer stop serious climate change. At all. Its too late. We can mitigate and manage it to some extent. Yet the uncertainty is still high.

To me there are two hypothetical tipping points. The first is the melting of the poles. If they go the whole dynamic changes. Ice is currently retreating, globally. Localized regions of ice expansion do not count for much if the total ice mass is declining. The second is release of stored methane. In geological time the methane levels have been double what they are now. If that happens we can forget ice ages. They wont be back for thousands of years.

Recently some scientists died because they fell through what should be solid ice and drowned.

We are also seeing changes that could lead to the extinction of much of our sea life. Countries that rely on the sea for food are going to face famine if the oceans become substantially altered. This is aside from the impact of drought, flood, storms, and ecological havoc. World food production is likely to go into serious decline. (Which ties in with why I oppose fracking for natural gas in farming areas.)

Methane concentrations have been rising since about 1900, and are going up and up. Its not a good trend. Its a a very steep climb. Its a similar story for carbon dioxide.

The problem is, in terms of science, its hard to prove any of this in the way we can prove most physics experiments, and with the allowance that even "proof" can be wrong. So we are dealing in likelihood, risk assessment, and risk management. It really doesn't matter if the hypotheses are right, or wrong, the risk is so large it has to be managed.

Climate change debate is also badly obfuscated by political, social and economic concerns. This has impact across every aspect of society. Yet there is some evidence that there is economic benefit from climate mitigation, and its the established industries like fossil fuels that are threatened, not industry in general.

As part of a broader argument, the thing that is is the tyranosaurus in the room is that we have a finite system, and economic growth is infinite. When the infinite hits the finite, what happens? Systems biology tells us that what happens is mass extinction, a halt in growth, dieback, and stagnation. We don't know when this is going to happen, but we know its a valid risk. Some estimates suggest that our economic woes will hit by mid century. Right when we will be trying to mitigate climate change, including mass flooding, loss of seafood, and declining crop yields. Yet this is such a rubbery estimate that it could be totally wrong. We might be seeing the start now, or it might not hit for centuries.

Our civilization has been focused too much on efficiency, and maximizing gains. What counts in the long term is robustness, which in climate terms means economic sustainability. I am currently in favour of promoting economic growth at an ideal of about half a percent, rather than about three percent.

The problem here, with those treating science as religion, is there are two extreme factions, and a whole lot of people in the middle who are confused or not engaged. Most research scientists see the threat, but in a world focused on economics they often do not cite risk management. No business would go into a venture with a risk of catastrophe so high its uninsurable. Yet that is where the world is right now.

In terms of ME and cures, this might mean we have a couple of decades for the research to give results. After that we might find there is little funding or interest.
 

leokitten

Senior Member
Messages
1,595
Location
U.S.
A naturally-occurring, longer-term warming of the planet due to cosmic factor could be happening. But we live much too short lifespans to know for sure, so I'm unwilling to accept it as a fact carved in stone. And recent data about the thickening of the Antarctic ice cap (rather than short term, natural fluctuations like melting and formation of specific ice shelfs, or the Arctic ice) as well as sunspot data, are IMO fairly ominous.

@whodathunkit we do actually know what the climate was like well beyond our lifespans, we have taken ice cores from the Artic and Antartic that are up to 800,000 years old. These ice cores hold all the information about exactly how Earth's climate was at that time. In fact, back in 2013 scientists found in East Antartica there are ice ranges dating back to 1.5 million years old:

http://www.egu.eu/news/77/the-oldest-ice-core-finding-a-15-million-year-record-of-earths-climate/

From 800,000 years ago until now we have data and the rapid warming experienced since 1900 is like nothing ever seen in that history.

Also it's so easy to say "I believe that the warming could be caused by some unknown cosmic factor". It's about as easy to say as "aliens are causing warming of our planet to kill us". There is absolutely no evidence for this. NASA, the other space agencies, and the entire astrophysics community have been looking and have found nothing. From this search they definitely know it's not happening due to anything from the Sun, not sunspots, not gamma rays, not cosmic rays, or any other radiation. It's actually quite straightforward to investigate other sources of radiation and they just aren't there.

Also, the only natural fluctuations outside our planet that can cause major climate change are fluctuations in our Sun's energy output and the wobble in our Earth's rotation around our the Sun due to gravitational pull from Jupiter. But these natural fluctuations occur at the rate of geologic time, not in just 100 years!!!

Did you actually know we are in the middle of an ice age right now? The fact that we have Artic and Antartic ice as well as in Greenland means we are in an ice age. During an ice age, which last millions of years, there are longer periods of lower temperature called glacials where ice sheets extend far beyond where they are now and shorter periods of warmer temperature called interglacials. We are currently in an interglacial period and we shouldn't be getting any warmer especially at the rapid rate of the last 100 years.

Finally, it totally annoys me when deniers read watered down news reports about the Antartic ice cap thickening and tout that as evidence that man-made climate change isn't happening. Why don't you people actually try to investigate and read the details and science as the WHY? The land and sea ice in the dome of Eastern Antartica have indeed gotten a little thicker for the time being, but the reason for that is not because that man-made global warming isn't happening, it's exactly because of man-made global warming. Man-made global warming has caused ocean and sea currents to change. This has caused much more warm air and water to be pushed down to West Antartica and the Antartic Peninsula where ice is melting at a catastrophic rate, and for the time being a bit less warm air and water in East Antartica. In addition, scientists have shown that the normally very cold and dry central East Antartica has gotten increased precipitation due to these man-made climate changes. This is why in central East Antartica the ice is temporarily thickening slightly, but it's only a temporary side effect. Once we warm the world even more it will just be hotter everywhere and the melting will occur everywhere.
 
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whodathunkit

Senior Member
Messages
1,160
Also it's so easy to say "I believe that the warming could be caused by some unknown cosmic factor".
Good lord! I DID NOT SAY THAT. PLEASE read my post again, and point to where I said "unknown cosmic factors".

When I said "cosmic factor" I mean THE SUN. Really. I did.

I'm a writer by nature. Using words in an overly-repetitious manner is bad form, so I find synonyms. Jeez.

I'm posting not to re-engage in this time-sucking debate, but simply to straighten that out, because you seem to be kind of hyperventilating over the fact that I think "unknown" cosmic factors like possibly aliens are affecting our climate, and implying that I'm that damn stupid, possibly because I don't see things the way you do. I can assure you, none of that is the case.

So again, peace out. :)