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Vote from Any Country for ME/FM Charity to Win $20,000!

Discussion in 'Phoenix Rising Articles' started by Phoenix Rising Team, Feb 26, 2013.

  1. SickOfSickness

    SickOfSickness Senior Member

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    1002 behind.
     
  2. snowathlete

    snowathlete

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    Just voted!
    • REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 60705
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 59699
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 27892
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 26907
    • SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC.
     
    Sasha likes this.
  3. maryb

    maryb iherb code TAK122

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    • REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 61156
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 60020
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 27944
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 26993

    Got to keep voting to be in with a chance for one of the runner up prizes!!!
     
    snowathlete and Sasha like this.
  4. ggingues

    ggingues $10 gift code at iHerb GAS343 of $40

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    Concord, NH
    • REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 64787
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 62526
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 28334
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 27255
    • SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC. 14166
    GG
     
  5. ggingues

    ggingues $10 gift code at iHerb GAS343 of $40

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    Didn't know there was a runner up prize. What is it?

    GG
     
  6. Sasha

    Sasha Fine, thank you

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    Last day of voting (phew!) and we're still about 1,000 behind but, fat lady etc. and I hope there will be vote-cleaning before the prizes are awarded - we have sent screenshots of people cheating so that will be interesting!

    • REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO64822
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society62758
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY28460
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK27493
    • SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC.14213
     
    snowathlete and SOC like this.
  7. Sasha

    Sasha Fine, thank you

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    Once 1st, 2nd and 3rd are awarded, the remaining charities are put in a pool and three are drawn out at random to get $5,000 each. Their chances are in proportion to the votes they got and we have about 1/9 of the total vote (once you take out the top three) so we've got roughly a 1/3 chance of winning $5k even if we're not placed third.
     
    ggingues and snowathlete like this.
  8. Little Bluestem

    Little Bluestem Senescent on the Illinois prairie, USA

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    I made my final votes earlier. Yesterday we dropped back a couple hundred votes and the birds went up a hundred, so we feel couple hundred votes farther behind them. Reach for the Rainbow went up over 1700 votes, so they must not have been voting for us too.

    There is going to be a drawing for one or more additional prizes, with each vote representing and entry in the drawing. It looks like we will have about a 5% chance in that drawing.
     
  9. Sasha

    Sasha Fine, thank you

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    I think it's about a 33% chance - they remove the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place votes - a few days ago when I calculated it, we had about 1/9 of the remaining votes - and then there are 3 draws so we've got a 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 chance = 1/3.
     
  10. maryb

    maryb iherb code TAK122

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    • REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 64826
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 62786
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 28478
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 27561

    Last vote. Haven't voted for the RFTRO - they don't need it, don't think they've voted for us but not bothered really - its a good cause. You never know the birds may have been cheating and we could still be in the money.
     
    Nielk and Valentijn like this.
  11. SOC

    SOC Senior Member

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    I wasn't able to vote just now. The website is unresponsive. Are we supposed to be able to vote through the rest of today?

    EDIT: Okay, it's fixed now. Last vote in.
     
  12. Mark

    Mark Acting CEO

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    Pedantic probability point: I think that's not quite the right calculation. Assuming three separate draws, with the winners on the first two draws removed from subsequent draws, the probability of winning on the second and third draws has to also include the probability of failing on the first and second. So it should be like this:

    1/9 +
    ( 8/9 * 1/9 ) +
    ( 8/9 * 8/9 * 1/9 )

    I make that about 0.299, or a little less than 30%

    That's still not exactly right because you also have to take out the votes for the charities that win the first and second and don't get included in the next draw, so the rightmost 3 of those fractions above need to be adjusted depending on who wins. But it would be horribly complicated to include the spread of the other votes in the calculation and it probably makes only a marginal difference on the end result. It should increase the chances very slightly, so I think the best estimate of the chance of winning on the draw is about 30%.
     
    snowathlete and Sasha like this.
  13. Nielk

    Nielk

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    I used to have a mathematical mind, before ME/CFS high jacked my brain but for the subsequent 2nd and third draw wouldn't the odds be effected depending of which charity is picked and how many votes they had?
     
  14. Mark

    Mark Acting CEO

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    Yup, that's what I was trying to get at by saying it would be a complicated calculation, because I think you'd have to consider the distribution of the rest of the votes amongst the charities. For instance, if the 5th place charity won on the first draw, then the one in 4th now has a considerably higher proportion of the remaining votes than before, so a better chance on the next draw. There might be something that cancels out here so you don't have to consider the distribution to get the correct probability, but I'm not quite sure how that part works. I suspect the effect of that is somewhere in the decimal places of the calculation anyway. Been thinking about it a bit as it's an interesting puzzle, but I should be doing other things really. :)
     
    Nielk likes this.
  15. maryb

    maryb iherb code TAK122

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    Mark and Neilk o_O:eek: even when I was well maths was always my worst subject - my brain just frazzled....
     
  16. snowathlete

    snowathlete

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    Close to a one in three chance is pretty good. Lets hope for the best. I think the draw is a month from now but I read the rules a couple weeks ago so could be wrong.
     
  17. ggingues

    ggingues $10 gift code at iHerb GAS343 of $40

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    Huh, 1/3 = 33%, so if you drop more groups out, shouldn't the percentage increase and not decrease?

    GG
     
  18. SickOfSickness

    SickOfSickness Senior Member

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    April 24th is when they announce the winners.
     
    snowathlete likes this.
  19. ggingues

    ggingues $10 gift code at iHerb GAS343 of $40

    Messages:
    4,093
    Likes:
    912
    Concord, NH

    • EACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 71796
    • Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 67820
    • MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 29897
    • NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 28408
    • SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC. 14918
    GG
    Not sure when this actually ends, I think it is 3/30 and i just voted, or at least I think I did?! So lets keep voting!!
     
  20. Little Bluestem

    Little Bluestem Senescent on the Illinois prairie, USA

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    Oops, :redface: I forgot to subtract out the votes for the winners. I did not know how many draws there are to be. 1/3 is much better than 1/20.
     

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