Discussion in 'Phoenix Rising Articles' started by Phoenix Rising Team, Feb 26, 2013.
REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 60705
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 59699
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 27892
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 26907
SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC.
REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 61156
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 60020
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 27944
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 26993
Got to keep voting to be in with a chance for one of the runner up prizes!!!
REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 64787
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 62526
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 28334
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 27255
SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC. 14166
Didn't know there was a runner up prize. What is it?
Last day of voting (phew!) and we're still about 1,000 behind but, fat lady etc. and I hope there will be vote-cleaning before the prizes are awarded - we have sent screenshots of people cheating so that will be interesting!
REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO64822
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society62758
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY28460
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK27493
SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC.14213
Once 1st, 2nd and 3rd are awarded, the remaining charities are put in a pool and three are drawn out at random to get $5,000 each. Their chances are in proportion to the votes they got and we have about 1/9 of the total vote (once you take out the top three) so we've got roughly a 1/3 chance of winning $5k even if we're not placed third.
I made my final votes earlier. Yesterday we dropped back a couple hundred votes and the birds went up a hundred, so we feel couple hundred votes farther behind them. Reach for the Rainbow went up over 1700 votes, so they must not have been voting for us too.
There is going to be a drawing for one or more additional prizes, with each vote representing and entry in the drawing. It looks like we will have about a 5% chance in that drawing.
I think it's about a 33% chance - they remove the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place votes - a few days ago when I calculated it, we had about 1/9 of the remaining votes - and then there are 3 draws so we've got a 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 chance = 1/3.
REACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 64826
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 62786
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 28478
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 27561
Last vote. Haven't voted for the RFTRO - they don't need it, don't think they've voted for us but not bothered really - its a good cause. You never know the birds may have been cheating and we could still be in the money.
I wasn't able to vote just now. The website is unresponsive. Are we supposed to be able to vote through the rest of today?
EDIT: Okay, it's fixed now. Last vote in.
Pedantic probability point: I think that's not quite the right calculation. Assuming three separate draws, with the winners on the first two draws removed from subsequent draws, the probability of winning on the second and third draws has to also include the probability of failing on the first and second. So it should be like this:
( 8/9 * 1/9 ) +
( 8/9 * 8/9 * 1/9 )
I make that about 0.299, or a little less than 30%
That's still not exactly right because you also have to take out the votes for the charities that win the first and second and don't get included in the next draw, so the rightmost 3 of those fractions above need to be adjusted depending on who wins. But it would be horribly complicated to include the spread of the other votes in the calculation and it probably makes only a marginal difference on the end result. It should increase the chances very slightly, so I think the best estimate of the chance of winning on the draw is about 30%.
I used to have a mathematical mind, before ME/CFS high jacked my brain but for the subsequent 2nd and third draw wouldn't the odds be effected depending of which charity is picked and how many votes they had?
Yup, that's what I was trying to get at by saying it would be a complicated calculation, because I think you'd have to consider the distribution of the rest of the votes amongst the charities. For instance, if the 5th place charity won on the first draw, then the one in 4th now has a considerably higher proportion of the remaining votes than before, so a better chance on the next draw. There might be something that cancels out here so you don't have to consider the distribution to get the correct probability, but I'm not quite sure how that part works. I suspect the effect of that is somewhere in the decimal places of the calculation anyway. Been thinking about it a bit as it's an interesting puzzle, but I should be doing other things really.
Mark and Neilk even when I was well maths was always my worst subject - my brain just frazzled....
Close to a one in three chance is pretty good. Lets hope for the best. I think the draw is a month from now but I read the rules a couple weeks ago so could be wrong.
Huh, 1/3 = 33%, so if you drop more groups out, shouldn't the percentage increase and not decrease?
April 24th is when they announce the winners.
EACH FOR THE RAINBOW ONTARIO 71796
Alberta Animal Rescue Crew Society 67820
MOUNTAINAIRE AVIAN RESCUE SOCIETY 29897
NATIONAL ME/FM ACTION NETWORK 28408
SALTHAVEN WILDLIFE REHABILITATION AND EDUCATION CENTRE INC. 14918
Not sure when this actually ends, I think it is 3/30 and i just voted, or at least I think I did?! So lets keep voting!!
Oops, I forgot to subtract out the votes for the winners. I did not know how many draws there are to be. 1/3 is much better than 1/20.
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