Much earlier in this thread, someone asked why I posted the original question. At the time, I thought that the study was trying to show that people who feared exercise had worse outcomes. Therefore, the question about if those fears were justified or not seemed like an important question. Many people were arguing the fears were based on solid evidence, and it seemed like an important question. (I was also curious if fearing exercise was just a marker for more serious symptoms, and what they were really seeing was more serious symptoms resulted in worse outcomes.)
But then I read the actual paper. You have to register, but it's free. And I realized that the data supported something different. What they found was that lowering the fear led to lowering other symptoms. It was the change in fear levels they were reporting, not the "starting fear" levels. That's quite different. For one thing, it means that the question of justified vs. unjustified fear doesn't matter. What they are saying is that it doesn't matter how or why you are fearful, but if you lower the fear, you are likely to lower the symptoms.
Now there is still a counter argument: causality. Maybe the lowering of symptoms causes the lowering of fear, and not the other way around. However, they measured everything at the beginning, middle, and end of the trial, so it looks like the data shows the lower fear happening first. That would imply the causality goes from fear to other symptoms (not the reverse) but I'm going to re-read that part of the paper. It's not simple to understand the first time through.
Finally, many people hated PACE because they felt it implied a psychological cause for ME/CFS. The basic idea was that since a psychological technique could be used as treatment (at least some of the time), that suggested that there was a psychological cause (at least some of the time). Therefore, it would make sense that people who don't believe in a psychological cause, wouldn't want to believe in a psychological treatment.
But that is obviously not the way drugs work, and I don't think it is necessarily the way psychology works, either. For example, lets say you have high blood pressure, and the doctors prescribes the drug Verapamil. Does that imply that you naturally have too little Verapamil? Of course not. The mechanism of the drug in treating the problem often has nothing to do with the mechanism of the cause of the problem. Maybe the same is true of Psychology in this case. Maybe the mechanism of the treatment has nothing to do with the mechanism of the cause.
Joshua