• Welcome to Phoenix Rising!

    Created in 2008, Phoenix Rising is the largest and oldest forum dedicated to furthering the understanding of, and finding treatments for, complex chronic illnesses such as chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS), fibromyalgia, long COVID, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), mast cell activation syndrome (MCAS), and allied diseases.

    To become a member, simply click the Register button at the top right.

PACE Trial and PACE Trial Protocol

Dolphin

Senior Member
Messages
17,567
[wdb quoting the GET patient manual: (in bold)] "in previous research studies most people with CFS/ME felt either 'much better' or 'very much better'".

Equivalent claims are common, but it looks like the PACE results dispute the "most" part, when using these outcomes on a modified clinical global impression: 41% for CBT/GET vs 31% for APT and 25% for SMC.
Yes. Those percentages refer to "much better' or 'very much better'". Useful find although I had mentioned before the results weren't as impressive as those two (smaller) studies.

In the original protocol: "We propose that a clinically important difference would be between 2 and 3 times the improvement rate of SSMC." We are not given odds ratios for primary measures, and I don't know how they arrived at these values, but we are given OR for the clinical global impression:

APT vs SMC: 13 (0821); p=031 | CBT vs SMC: 22 (1239); p=0011 | GET vs SMC: 20 (1235); p=0013.

CBT vs APT: 17 (1027); p=0034 | GET vs APT: 15 (1023); p=0028.
Interesting to be reminded of the underlined bit.
ORs would only apply to some sort of categorical data. The primary outcome measures (there were three types) were in the form of categorical data in the published protocol but are not in the final paper.

There's an Odds Ratio calculator at: http://www.hutchon.net/ConfidOR.htm

So if one looks at those who improved by at least two points on the CFQ and at least eight points on the SF-36 PF, for CBT vs APT it gives an OR of 1.9834 (95% confidence interval: 1.2538 to 3.1375)

biophile said:
Some beliefs and cognitions can be rather difficult to change, but I agree there is double-speak and a disconnect between hypothesis and reality. I think they have toned down some of the rhetoric or at least worded it better for different audiences, and it is difficult to say how much goalpost-shifting has occurred over 20 years. The so-called "Wessely School" see themselves as the moderates between the purely organic position the purely psychological position. Their current theme in a soundbite is: CFS symptoms are "physical" but "functional" and misinterpreted as a disease process, primarily perpetuated by cognitive and behavioural factors. Wessely seems to think of CFS as a delayed recovery from an event that everyone else recovers from naturally, that's why he allows for an infectious "trigger". Their comparison to anorexia nervosa is a good example of how they view the "physiology" of CFS. There is an article on the KCL website about the "Physiological Aspects of CFS" which is a better example, limited to the effects of deconditioning, anxiety, hyperventilation, stress, depression and circadian rhythm disturbance, and we are told (in bold!) "It is important to point out that these changes are reversible with physical rehabilitation and/or exercise."

In my opinion, psychologists like Leonard Jason and Fred Friedberg are the real "moderates". They acknowledge that psychological factors can play a role in CFS but apparently have not been seduced by psychobabble, hyperbole, and the convenient dismissal of biomedical research.
It probably helps that they are both patients. Patients can try as many "experiments" as they want - eventually they will tend to see they can't exercise all their symptoms away.
 

oceanblue

Guest
Messages
1,383
Location
UK
@biophile "In the original protocol: "We propose that a clinically important difference would be between 2 and 3 times the improvement rate of SSMC."
Interesting to be reminded of the underlined bit.

So if one looks at those who improved by at least two points on the CFQ and at least eight points on the SF-36 PF, for CBT vs APT it gives an OR of 1.9834 (95% confidence interval: 1.2538 to 3.1375)
That seems to show they did just about make a 2-3x difference (depending on whether or not you allow for the confidence interval), though on much, much lower thresholds than the protocol specified.
 

Graham

Senior Moment
Messages
5,188
Location
Sussex, UK
Ooh, lovely. Those animations are exactly the sort of thing we need to clearly highlight the critical issues.

One small suggestion, the 'Qualifying Level' marker in the second video is pretty faint, could be a little more solid.

Thanks for that, guys.

Thanks Sean! You are right about the marker being too faint: the only trouble is that correcting it means a full animation rebuild. I'll have to put it on to my "get around to it one day" list. Funnily enough, with ME, the list seems to be growing.

There are so many medical professionals out there who seem to have shut their minds from the valid analytic criticisms of so much of this stuff and from the mass of real biomedical data, my fantasy is that just by using the actual results themselves, we could open a few more minds to the cause. If only!
 

wdb

Senior Member
Messages
1,392
Location
London

Graham

Senior Moment
Messages
5,188
Location
Sussex, UK
Okay, I've attempted to make a start on this in the wiki http://forums.phoenixrising.me/showwiki.php?title=Pace+Trial+Criticisms

I'm sure I have only covered a fraction of the points so far but hopefully this can be expanded upon. Maybe if we each add to it any points that we personally feel are particularly relevant ?

Looks good to me!

One point that frustrates me about the trial is implied in your last comment. The analysis is all about average group performance, not about individual changes. None of the report suggests to me that they are focusing on individual changes, yet would be easy enough to analyse the raw data that way. We need to know what the variations in improvement were, and how they correlate to severity of illness. A snapshot of the range of scores of a group at any instant is a very different (and relatively useless) image.

Would it be appropriate to add a final heading - Illogical Conclusions? Even if you accept all the results as valid, they still don't support the universal application of CBT and GET for people with ME. On a cost-effective basis alone, an improvement in fatigue levels of 3.2 or thereabouts is trivial.
 

Angela Kennedy

Senior Member
Messages
1,026
Location
Essex, UK
Can anyone point me towards how 'drop-outs' and incompletions were 'analysed' in the trial? Were they followed up? Did they count as negative outcomes, or not?

I have my own thoughts on this but would be very interested in others comments.

Thanks people!
 

Enid

Senior Member
Messages
3,309
Location
UK
Quite agree Angela - a very important issue "drop outs" in every way, but can't help with analysis. Suspect discounted in all figures. Like those originally excluded - too ill. (Too ill with what one asks and exactly why one asks).
 

alex3619

Senior Member
Messages
13,810
Location
Logan, Queensland, Australia
Ixchelkali has a post pointing to a radio interview in Australia with Michael Sharpe which is almost certainly pro-PACE. It will also comment on "crazy patients" objecting to the PACE trials. Here is the post (post 25):

http://forums.phoenixrising.me/showthread.php?10921-Aussie-Advocacy/page3

Here is a direct link to the radio show:

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/healthreport/stories/2011/3192571.htm

This interview happens in less than two days. Does anyone have any good brief comments or questions to post in the comments section? Please, no flaming, we have already been warned that they will try to present us as "crazies".

Bye
Alex
 

Sean

Senior Member
Messages
7,378
Please, no flaming, we have already been warned that they will try to present us as "crazies"
This, times 1 000 000.

No matter how outrageous and unjustified their comments and claims might be, we must stay cool about it. Just stick to legit technical criticisms.
 

Graham

Senior Moment
Messages
5,188
Location
Sussex, UK
Alex, what do you think about a reply that focuses on the results of the trial rather than attacks the integrity of the trial? Something along the lines of...

"When you look at the average effect on the fatigue scale that GET itself produced (i.e. minus the effect of SMC alone), the results at 12, 24 and 52 weeks were 1.4, 2.2 and 3.1 points of improvement. These are decreasing rapidly (it takes longer and longer to produce a similar improvement) and fit a classic exponential decay pattern, with a maximum improvement (after many years) of a 3.5 point improvement on a 33 point scale. How can such a small change justify continued investment of time and resources in such a therapy?"

By way of explanation, the reason that the final figure is 3.1 rather than 3.2, as shown in Table 3 of the report, is that GET started at a baseline of 28.2 and SMC at 28.3.

I'm not happy about the way I have phrased it - it comes over like one of my maths lessons - but I'd like to see something that causes them to be face up to the poor results. The phrase "hoist with one's own petard" comes to mind.
 

Angela Kennedy

Senior Member
Messages
1,026
Location
Essex, UK
In all honesty, and bearing in mind the 'sillee' attack on advocates's objections by the Vivienne Parry piece currently on the MEA website, I would not expect too much from this broadcast. This is a PACE flag-waving piece from the get-go, judging by the way it's been advertised, and getting the authors to face up to their poor results and poor methodology is not likely to happen there.

I think proponents of PACE have been watching the process here and elsewhere, and are nervous. Our critiques are 'hurting' them, and so they are looking at ways to discredit the objections and those making the objections. That broadcast will not likely be a good place for any opportunity to bring to light the flaws of this trial, especially as we are already on the back foot, being scared of being portrayed as 'crazies', and that appears to be the way advocates are to be treated anyway. Any reasonable 'questions' will be used to pangloss the trial and disregard the concerns. Assertions would probably be better. But if anyone has any doubt or fear they and their objections will be misrepresented, I wouldn't bother for this particular broadcast.
 

wdb

Senior Member
Messages
1,392
Location
London
"When you look at the average effect on the fatigue scale that GET itself produced (i.e. minus the effect of SMC alone), the results at 12, 24 and 52 weeks were 1.4, 2.2 and 3.1 points of improvement. These are decreasing rapidly (it takes longer and longer to produce a similar improvement) and fit a classic exponential decay pattern, with a maximum improvement (after many years) of a 3.5 point improvement on a 33 point scale. How can such a small change justify continued investment of time and resources in such a therapy?"

By way of explanation, the reason that the final figure is 3.1 rather than 3.2, as shown in Table 3 of the report, is that GET started at a baseline of 28.2 and SMC at 28.3.

I'm not happy about the way I have phrased it - it comes over like one of my maths lessons - but I'd like to see something that causes them to be face up to the poor results. The phrase "hoist with one's own petard" comes to mind.

I agree, particularly when you consider that just the 3-6 SMC sessions alone had an effect about twice that that the 12-15 CBT/GET sessions added. The points of improvement measured per SMC session is something like 7 times that of a CBT/GET session alone.

Also, I don't know how you would go about demonstrating it but I would wonder if the exponential nature of the results actually suggests that the results are more due to placebo or bias than due to treatment, the limit of effectiveness it shows may simply be the limits to which patients might be willing to kid themselves that they are getting better in the absence of any objective change.
 

Graham

Senior Moment
Messages
5,188
Location
Sussex, UK
Hi wdb

I can't use the exponential nature to demonstrate anything really, but as the biggest improvement is at the start, my intuition says that much of this would be due to settling-in to the processes (I always find that starting something new takes it out of me, until I get into the swing of things). As there isn't a proper control group, it is hard to know how much to allow. Trying to do meaningful calculations on their data is rather like performing complex brain surgery on a patient that was dead even before surgery started.

Now for some gardening!
 

Sean

Senior Member
Messages
7,378
This is a PACE flag-waving piece from the get-go, judging by the way it's been advertised, and getting the authors to face up to their poor results and poor methodology is not likely to happen there.

I think proponents of PACE have been watching the process here and elsewhere, and are nervous. Our critiques are 'hurting' them, and so they are looking at ways to discredit the objections and those making the objections. That broadcast will not likely be a good place for any opportunity to bring to light the flaws of this trial, especially as we are already on the back foot, being scared of being portrayed as 'crazies', and that appears to be the way advocates are to be treated anyway. Any reasonable 'questions' will be used to pangloss the trial and disregard the concerns. Assertions would probably be better. But if anyone has any doubt or fear they and their objections will be misrepresented, I wouldn't bother for this particular broadcast.
This long running program (Health Report), and its long standing presenter (Norman Swan), actually have a pretty good track record, including confronting the medical establishment a number of times. Swan is no fool or establishment hack.

So it may not be all that bad. We shall see.

I think proponents of PACE have been watching the process here and elsewhere, and are nervous. Our critiques are 'hurting' them,...
So they should be. Reality is a bitch. We are on to them and they freaking know it.

Expect some pretty vicious nonsense from them, and especially their rabid fan pack, in the near future, as they start to realise how deep the shit is that they are in, that they have no easy out, and nobody but themselves to blame for that.

This is simply a fight to the intellectual death. There will be no silver medals here.

And what good news? That a cohort that does not represent ME/CFS at the end of some treatments will walk 30 or so meters more in a 6 minutes walking test compared to before? And still only about half the distance that healthy elderly people can do?
Better check that claim, might need some qualification. IIRC, they certainly do worse than healthy 70-80 year olds, but nowhere near half as well. (Average age of PACE patients is 38.) More like maybe 15 % worse, which is still a damning indictment of the PACE results and the CBT/GET model.
 

biophile

Places I'd rather be.
Messages
8,977
oceanblue wrote: Great work - you must have put a huge amount of effort has gone into producing these figures, which clearly show that PACE used the wrong data to calculate it's 'within the normal range' criterion. We now need to figure out the best way to use these figures. And yes, it is hard to see how PACE made a mistake like this, given that they started off with the right figures in the protocol....

Sean wrote: Nice one, biophile. "and perhaps even worse?" Difficult to see this manipulation of the protocol, especially after the data was collected, as anything but a very deliberate attempt to produce a convenient but unscientific (and unethical) result. Such behaviour is dangerously close to blatant fraud.

Thanks. I'm not sure what to think about it, it does seem fishy. The authors either performed an unlikely blunder or committed to an outright lie. They already published a protocol which established definite figures (75+ for "positive outcome" and 85+ for "recovery") and even cite Bowling et al 1999, at some time between 2007 and 2011 this was changed and now it is obvious they also used the wrong dataset to back up this unexplained change in protocol. Such an "innocent" mistake would be rather uncanny and it is becoming increasingly difficult to give them the benefit of the doubt. I am reluctant to accuse anyone of "scientific fraud", it is a serious charge that would be difficult to prove in this case, but at some point the question becomes relevant.

Like others here I also get the impression the PACE trial did not turn out as the authors had hoped (as evidenced by their stated expectations in the protocol, and elsewhere eg White claiming a 25% cure rate) and spin doctoring was employed as the disappointing data was "unblinded" to them.

As for what to do with these figures, frankly I don't think anyone important enough is going to care. The message will still be "STFU about unproven pacing and stop nitpicking over alleged flaws in the biopsychosocial approach, evidence based CBT and GET are good for you regardless of what causes CFS". I don't think there is an individual flaw in the PACE trial that is bad enough to single handedly bring down the entire trial, but it is riddled with numerous problems which accumulate into very shaky ground indeed.

We are routinely accused of having a conflict of interest for merely being patients or carers, charged with "secondary gain", "playing the sick role", "enabling", with welfare being claimed as a risk factor to prolonged illness, that illness must be "maintained" to keep these benefits. White et al do this in a more refined fashion while society at large are usually more crude and vitriolic about it. Anyone who dares to question their motives gets dismissed as a "conspiracy theorist", but apparently it is accepted in society to whimsically interrogate the motives of ME/CFS patients and carers on a regular basis.

Let's see how our shoes would fit on their feet. Was the PACE trial a form of "welfare" for a network of biopsychosocalists in the UK, or the equivalent of a competitive drug company being trusted by the government to compare its own expensive product against a free rival product preferred by patients? Not to mention what else is at stake for them if the trial was a failure: further grant money, reputations, and employment for collegues when CBT/GET is rolled out. The researchers involved have been regularly flushed with cash to produce results which just happen to coincide with their own cognitive biases as well as feather their own nest, and be what governments and insurance companies want to hear (similar "potential conflicts of interest" were reported by these authors in the Lancet). Is continuous funding for psych studies a risk factor to produce results which will further themselves, "playing the researcher role", "secondary academic gain"?

Snow Leopard wrote:

Look at table 7. It gives the data for patients Respondents not reporting long standing illness.

The mean PF score was 92.5 (SD=13.4). I pointed out this in my letter to the Lancet.

Since the trial subjects had all other illnesses ruled out, normal therefore cannot be defined as anything <80 and certainly higher if you rule out the elderly.

oceanblue wrote: Glad you mentioned that in your letter. Yes, for working age the threshold would probably come out at 85 - the threshold the protocol specified for 'recovery'.

Excellent point. It was inappropriate to compare PACE participants to a working age population in the first place, but they didn't even do that properly and the definition of normal is already questionable no matter what values they put into the equation.

Jenkinson et al 1993 Table 7: Respondents not reporting long standing illness, mean(SD)=92.5(13.4), n=6301 or about 71.7%, therefore 79.1 or rounded to 80 using the PACE definition. Respondents reporting long standing illness, mean(SD)=78.3(23.2), n=2489 or about 28.3%, therefore 55.1 or rounded to 55 using the PACE definition. White et al's lower threshold of normal is much closer to an ill working age population than a healthy one.
 

biophile

Places I'd rather be.
Messages
8,977
[thread conversation started by Mark on providing a summary critique of the PACE trial]
I agree this needs to be done, a long term collaboration. We need a comprehensive analysis as well as a brief summary. It would be helpful to have a centralised list of links:

There are many points covered in this thread - http://forums.phoenixrising.me/showthread.php?4926-PACE-Trial-and-PACE-Trial-Protocol

Another related thread - http://forums.phoenixrising.me/show...-PACE-Trial-Indicates-CBT-GET-No-Cure-For-CFS

Another related thread - http://forums.phoenixrising.me/showwiki.php?10219-PACE-study-and-oxford-criteria

Esther12 starting a wiki - http://forums.aboutmecfs.org/showwi...Treatment+Review+Project:Pace+-+analysis+dump

wdb starting a wiki: http://forums.phoenixrising.me/showwiki.php?title=Pace+Trial+Criticisms

The wiki at the other ME/CFS forum website - http://www.mecfsforums.com/wiki/PACE_trial

Malcolm Hooper's "Magical Medicine" document - http://www.meactionuk.org.uk/magical-medicine.pdf

Malcolm Hooper's initial response - http://www.meactionuk.org.uk/Hooper-response-to-PACE-Trial-Press-Release.htm

Graham and Bob - http://meanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/pacegraph-from-graham-mcphee-on-vimeo.html ( http://www.meetup.org.uk/Resources/PACEanalysis.pdf )

etc.

I'd also like to see the rumoured 40+ page analysis "submitted" to the Lancet (which is unlikely to ever see the light of day in that journal).

Sean recommended: Use the graphic developed on the PACE thread that compares PACE's definitions of 'normal' or 'recovered' to the real normal for the general (healthy) population. Indeed, I would suggest keeping any word based explanation down to a minimum for this point, given we have such a clear graphic. Probably one or two other criticisms that could be presented graphically.

Do you mean this one?

attachment.php


I also have or still working on more useful graphs which I intend to upload to Google Sites in full quality.

Jenny wrote: Oceanblue and I have sent a the following letter to The Psychologist commenting on their piece on the PACE trial:

Good work.

Graham wrote: I have been working with Bob for some time on an analysis of the PACE trial. We have put together a blog with a couple of animations that just focuses on a small but representative part of the study and shows how ineffective the therapies were. [...] The blog is at meanalysis.blogspot.com ...

Nice job. I liked the animations. The truncated scaling in the Lancet paper was one of the first things I noticed too when examining it for the first time, it is good to see a more honest presentation of the data. However this applies more to the PF/SF-36 scores than the CFQ, because the majority of the general population are scoring 95-100/100 for the former but more like 11/33 for the latter.

Also, with the first animation I'm not sure if we can say with certainty that [SMC alone] was better than [GET alone] because there was no adequate controls. The second animation raised an interesting point, the spread or distribution of the scores. It is indeed possible that a small proportion of patients did much better than the others and are skewing the mean(SD).

wdb wrote:

I agree, particularly when you consider that just the 3-6 SMC sessions alone had an effect about twice that that the 12-15 CBT/GET sessions added. The points of improvement measured per SMC session is something like 7 times that of a CBT/GET session alone.

Also, I don't know how you would go about demonstrating it but I would wonder if the exponential nature of the results actually suggests that the results are more due to placebo or bias than due to treatment, the limit of effectiveness it shows may simply be the limits to which patients might be willing to kid themselves that they are getting better in the absence of any objective change.

Graham wrote: I can't use the exponential nature to demonstrate anything really, but as the biggest improvement is at the start, my intuition says that much of this would be due to settling-in to the processes (I always find that starting something new takes it out of me, until I get into the swing of things). As there isn't a proper control group, it is hard to know how much to allow. Trying to do meaningful calculations on their data is rather like performing complex brain surgery on a patient that was dead even before surgery started.

Good points.
 

biophile

Places I'd rather be.
Messages
8,977
alex3619 wrote:

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/healthreport/stories/2011/3192571.htm

This interview happens in less than two days. Does anyone have any good brief comments or questions to post in the comments section? Please, no flaming, we have already been warned that they will try to present us as "crazies".

Sean wrote: No matter how outrageous and unjustified their comments and claims might be, we must stay cool about it. Just stick to legit technical criticisms.

Angela Kennedy wrote: I think proponents of PACE have been watching the process here and elsewhere, and are nervous. Our critiques are 'hurting' them, and so they are looking at ways to discredit the objections and those making the objections. That broadcast will not likely be a good place for any opportunity to bring to light the flaws of this trial, especially as we are already on the back foot, being scared of being portrayed as 'crazies', and that appears to be the way advocates are to be treated anyway. Any reasonable 'questions' will be used to pangloss the trial and disregard the concerns. Assertions would probably be better. But if anyone has any doubt or fear they and their objections will be misrepresented, I wouldn't bother for this particular broadcast.

I'd like to think the ABC in Australia has more integrity than that, although perhaps many journalists prefer appeals to authority than investigation, it is certainly a lot easier. Two months have passed already since publication and as a community we are limited due to illness and fragmentation etc. But given enough time I think we will succeed in wading through the layers of spin and exposing the truth behind PACE, whatever that is. I submitted the following two part comment (hopefully it does not sound too "crazy"):

Concerned Citizen wrote:

Part 1 of 2-

PACE was not good news for the majority of CFS patients who don't benefit much from these therapies but will be now be goaded into it because of a flawed trial. Results were relatively unimpressive and don't support the hype we saw in the news media following the Lancet publication. Reactions from the patient community only seem extraordinary to those who are unaware of the struggle we have faced due to psychosocial interpretations of this condition. This is not about automatically rejecting psychological factors or behavioural interventions because we simply don't like them, as misguided stereotypes of CFS patients suggest, but rather it is criticism of the exaggeration, oversimplification, and overgeneralisation we have endured from the principle authors of the PACE trial and colleagues throughout their careers.

Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is based on the hypothesis that abnormal illness beliefs are the primary factor in perpetuation of CFS symptoms, graded exercise therapy (GET) is based on the hypothesis that deconditioning is the primary factor. These hypotheses have not been confirmed in theory or practice. Cochrane systematic reviews into for CBT (Price et al 2007) and GET (Edmonds et al 2004/8) suggest there is a small temporary effect on fatigue for a minority of ambulatory CFS patients but all other measures are in doubt, not to mention severely affected patients remain excluded from this research.

Multiple patient surveys have consistently shown adverse effects due to CBT and GET, including people who underwent professional rehabilitation. The authors dispute this and took great care to avoid symptom exacerbations in the trial. The handling of adverse effects is open to interpretation, and although the patients were carefully guided to gradually increase activity levels, we are not told what proportion of patients actually managed to increase their activity due to therapy or by how much.

It is ironic that the authors view the patients' irrational beliefs and unreliable perceptions as central to CFS but deem them dependable enough for subjective questionnaires. In comments on their published protocol (White et al 2007), the authors resisted the use of objective tests to confirm the alleged improvements, actigraphy in particular with the excuse it would have been too much of a burden to patients, despite using it at the beginning of the trial. Their colleagues in Europe (Wiborg et al 2010) in a meta-analysis have confirmed with the use of actigraphy that CFS patients are not increasing their activity with CBT/GET, which wouldn't have looked too good in a study that cost 5 million pounds and expected to deliver. PACE did use the 6 minute walking test, GET had a non-significant improvement over the other groups (under 0.5SD), but all groups were still on average well under 400m, much lower than an average healthy score of 650m and comparable to patients with serious medical diseases.

Part 2 of 2-

PACE used the Oxford criteria (notoriously heterogeneous with higher rates of psychiatric comorbidity) and had a strict process for excluding possible medical conditions, yet a massive 80% of candidates from fatigue clinics in the UK were excluded from the trial. For sub-group analyses, PACE also used modified and unrepresentative versions of the London ME criteria and the CDC criteria. Much of the patient community endorse the Canadian criteria (Carruthers et al 2003, updated by Jason et al 2009) which White et al have avoided, many patients who fit this criteria probably would have been excluded from the trial.

PACE compared CBT and GET to a modified form of pacing which does not represent what the CFS community knows as pacing. We do not avoid all exacerbations or stick to a 70% of perceived energy rule. Can the authors be trusted to fairly test a rival therapy?

In the original protocol, PACE counted 75/100 points on the physical subscale of the SF-36 healthy survey towards a positive outcome, with 85+ counting towards recovery. These values were derived from calculating the mean (average) score minus 1 standard deviation from a working age population, a questionable definition when even the majority of a general population are scoring at or close to the upper limit ie 95-100/100 points (Bowling et al 1999 cited by PACE for normative data). Jenkinson et al 1993, also cited in the original protocol, reveal a mean(SD) score for a *healthy* working age population of 92.5(13.4), or a lower threshold of about 80/100 points according to the PACE definition.

Yet in the Lancet paper, PACE dropped that and now claim 60 points is the lower threshold for normal (as one of two criterion, the other being based on fatigue). We are not given a reason for this goalpost shift. Calculations reveal the authors did not use normative data from a working age population as claimed, but instead a general population which included the elderly and diseased (84-24=60). To some extent, similar problems also exist for their measurement of fatigue using the Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire. This invalidates the figures given for participants returning to normal and a correction should be published. A related mistake was repeated in the editorial which claimed PACE used a strict definition of recovery (which didn't exist in the final paper). Oddly, it was possible for a patient to classified as normal despite being impaired enough to qualify for trial entry. Please ask Richard Horton (the Editor in Chief) to explain how these blunders managed to pass the prestigious peer-review process of the Lancet?

There are other identified problems in this trial which we as a community of patients and carers have had to discover on our own because apparently the media and wider scientific community are dropping the ball. We are sick and tired of being subjected to spin, peoples' lives and health are at stake here while other people pontificate.