However, I think one can argue from first principles and also from the Quian Quiroga data that inputs often do not give output signals - as when the input for a motorbike arrives at a grandmother or Saddam Hussein cell.
I don't disagree but its a different phenomenon. A cell responds, that might be internal, there is no external signal, in the case above. You have to be careful to define what a signal is though, and not confuse or conflate signal with externally detectable response, whether that by by an experimenter or other cells. . A change is in principle measurable, or it isn't a change. There appears to be a muddle about what is input, output, experience etc. I don't think we have resolved it.
Beliefs
I don't think we need to get too heavy into philosopher to get enough understanding of what beliefs are and are not, or their limitations. I might believe I can fly, but if I act on that there will be a possibly tragic mismatch between what I think about the world, and the reality. Yet I think the same kind of error occurs again and again. In extreme beliefs I might think something unacceptable to many (such as "I can read your mind"), but ideas that do not match reality occur all the way down to the little things. Like where did I put my pen! It was here only seconds ago!. What we think, and reality, do not have to match.
Experience Neurons?
I am deeply suspicious of the notion of belief or experience neurons, whether individual neurons or their synaptic connections. I do think that small clusters of neurons can play specific roles, we see that in the visual cortex for example, and so they might activate under specific conditions. I see absolutely no problem with distributed memory as found in artificial neural networks being somewhat analogous to what happens in the brain, though with bells and whistles in the brain you cannot find in an artificial network. I do however think the kinds of amorphous single layer neural net that were very popular with (for example) McClelland are a very poor approximation of anything in the brain.
When I was talking about state, I was talking about a loose concept ... its more valid in my view than saying input or output, but its not particularly helpful either. You can create various hypothetical state mechanisms, but they are mostly still not testable.
So let me put it another way. Suppose there is a small region of the brain in which an experience exists (although I am deeply suspicious of this view as well, it serves to illustrate my point as an hypothetical). Similar regions surround it, with which it interconnects. A sensory input comes in, through eyes, touch or whatever. Its pre-processed by specialist regions, such as the visual cortex. What results is NOT an image of reality, its an abstracted approximation. Usually that is good enough, but illusions work in some cases because the brain's interpretation of what we see can be fooled. Colour is largely a brain interpretation, though not all colours.
Now that modified sensory input reaches the area in which related experiences can exist. Other nearby areas can interact with how it operates, representing our prior experience impact on the sensory input. So the first area to receive the signal may activate nearby areas. The input signal has become an output from that area. It hits other experiential areas, and they process it and send a return signal. That signal was again an input, was processed, and with modification became an output. Dynamic patterns of activation go all over this little area of the brain, and there are connections to other regions of the brain that can activate emotions or autonomic reactions, or whatever its connected to.
So that experience leads to a signal, or probably a group of signals (via as yet mysterious processes .... there is too much we do not understand) to the speech centers of the brain. Cutting out a lot of steps, you eventually say something about the experience.
Experience is ill defined - what do we even want to talk about.
So are we talking sensory input, or experience of reality? Or the consequences of experience? Where you draw the boundary affects the argument.
Now one thing that becomes clear here is that we have not really defined what an experience really is, or even what about experience we want to argue about. I think it makes no sense in some respects to talk of it as just input or output. We are in danger of black-boxing the brain, making unjustified assumptions, and all sorts of biases. Similarly we cannot presume we know what the brain is doing yet. Have someone like you ask someone like me in a hundred years and they might have a better conversation.
You can posit such a situation right the way down to individual neurons, but as I said this is deeply suspicious to me. Clusters of neurons, possibly structured (though differently to the visual cortex) seem more likely.
Any argument that neural networks don't hold up because they cannot be easily fractured actually support the viability of the neural network idea, but not prove it. Specific response clusters can be highly distributed, and not easily separated. This might be one reason we have so much problem figuring out the brain.
I do however think that the brain probably has a lot more fine grained architecture than most suppose. Its not a random lump of stuff, broken up into a few modules, with connections between those modules that are specific on the large scale, but random in fine scale. I think that is how things used to be thought of. I think the visual cortex provides a good example of the kinds of specialized subarchitecture that might be involved. Obviously not identical, but still a clue.
We have also ignored one key aspect. While connections may exist, they may not be activated. Non activation of connections (which in some cases may dwindle or die) is also important. Edelman posited that deep emotional centers of the brain (he allowed for a range, we was mainly concerned with end mechanisms)could send signals that change the response capacity of the synapses toward or away from change the strength or type of connection. Much of what we consider to be learned survives, in my interpretation of his view, only because their is no sufficient signal to trigger synaptic plasticity.
Beliefs Again
This is getting too long. I think beliefs do not need to be delved into too greatly. The brain operates based on its supposed congruence with the world. That congruence is not always valid, or accurate, but sometimes its a good enough approximation for most purposes.
What is more relevant to me is what can a belief, a thought about the world, actually do? I think this is where the magical thinking of the BPS proponents really begins to emerge. Beliefs are not some all powerful mental phantom. I am pretty sure if I really thought I could fly, and jumped off a building, that I would get a very brief instant where I might think I was doing it, but it would be only very brief. Much of the attributions and effects of belief we hear so much from some BPS proponents seems to be so much twaddle ... themselves the kinds of magical thinking that they want to claim we, as patients do. Well, magical thinking is I think a part of how the brain works, an entirely different argument about thinking styles .... but that is a different topic. Generally speaking we call this bias, and science (and rational thinking) is in part about an attempt to strip away bias.
Placebo
I think at some point we will have to discuss the placebo effect. Let me put my current working hypothesis out there, so that people can think about it for later. I think the placebo effect is really only about attitudes, how we think about things. It does not alter reality, but only our perception. I think its a great big dud, and has been overused and oversold. We need proper controls in experiments, so it has some value (a slightly different topic) but the belief in placebo looks to me to be mostly a false belief.