Professor & patients' paper on the solvable biological challenge of ME/CFS: reader-friendly version
Simon McGrath provides a patient-friendly version of a peer-reviewed paper which highlights some of the most promising biomedical research on ME/CFS ...
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ME associated with flu, but not vaccine

Discussion in 'Latest ME/CFS Research' started by msf, Oct 18, 2015.

  1. msf

    msf Senior Member

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  2. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

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  3. SOC

    SOC

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    Interesting. Both daughter and I got much worse after getting H1N1 in the 2009 pandemic. We already had ME, so it wasn't the root cause, but H1N1 made it much worse.
     
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  4. Dolphin

    Dolphin Senior Member

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    A previous paper:

     
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  5. snowathlete

    snowathlete

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    Could be significant. Good to see this being looked at.

    "We found no indication of increased risk of CFS/ME after vaccination."

    But if flu is associated with increased risk then shouldn't it follow that vaccination should demonstrate lowered risk?
     
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  6. barbc56

    barbc56 Senior Member

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    I would be interested in how many people get ME in the general population and whether this corresponds to people to the number who get a vaccine.

    Sometimes a side effect which people think is from a vaccination when stastically a certain percentage of the population would get the same "side effect" without the vaccine.

    I just got my flu shot which I should have had in September. I can't even imagine getting the flu on top of this.

    Barb

    Opps, misread the report. Looks like they did this?
     
  7. Sushi

    Sushi Senior Member Albuquerque

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    Interesting! I had a really bad case of H3N2 that kept me in bed for 3 months. This was a long time ago but was right before I started having ME/CFS symptoms. It gets confusing though because I was also bitten by numerous ticks around the same time.
     
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  8. alex3619

    alex3619 Senior Member

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    If confirmed this widens the range of known pathogenic triggers. Since this was a severe viral stain, that might be why.CFS risk has been associated with severity of infection.

    I wonder if this was a live vaccine or not. That might change how we interpret this.
     
  9. alex3619

    alex3619 Senior Member

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    It was, but only marginal. It depends how this was done though. We need to read the paper.
     
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  10. Vic

    Vic

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    HAH. Yeah right. The key here is the "per 100,000 person-months," which I think means they counted how often CFS/ME onset within a month of influenza diagnosis or vaccine shot. It takes time for the muscular damage of vaccines to snowball and eventually lead to CFS/ME, usually much longer than 1 month, up to years.

    Anyone able to find how how exactly they did gathered the data and did their calculations?
     
  11. Hip

    Hip Senior Member

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    It does not mean that.

    They state that they followed the population for 39 months (1 Oct 2009 to 31 Dec 2012). During this period they found that the overall incidence of ME/CFS was approximately 2 cases per 100,000 person-months.

    So this means, for example, if you tracked 1000 people for 100 months (= around 8 years), you would expect 2 people out of the 1000 on average to come down with ME/CFS during that time.



    Never heard such a thing.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
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  12. Vic

    Vic

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    Yeah I know it means that. I was wondering why they did, because I'm trying to figure out how they did their analysis. It says "The adjusted HR of CFS/ME after pandemic vaccination was 0.97." "after pandemic vaccination" sounds like they used a time period, during/after a "pandemic." And how did they "adjust" it? Did they count the number of vaccines used? Basically, there are lots of ways their analysis could be faulty, but I have no idea what they might be if I don't know their exact methodology.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4246686/
    That's one general mechanism behind it. Basically, they contribute to altering the mechanics of the shoulder joints. Over time other stress (sedentarism/injuries/other stuff) build on that alteration until one shoulder goes in one direction and the other shoulder goes in another, creating a wringing effect on the torso, neck, spine, skull, and down into the hips and below. Like twisting the water out of a towel... a metaphor.
     
  13. Snow Leopard

    Snow Leopard Hibernating

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    These complete nation cohort studies are interesting and there should be more studies like this. The problem is that it only works for vaccinations that are not used by the large majority of the population. So the possibilities are the influenza vaccines and other vaccines when they are first adopted (eg the HPV vaccine).

    The results show clear evidence of a post-infectious syndrome associated with influenza infections.

    However a major limitation of this study is that in addition to confirmed laboratory testing of H1N1 in some subjects, they also assumed this in others:
    There was evidence of some people vaccinated who had an R80 code and this was similarly associated with a CFS diagnosis (HR:1.88 CI:1.46–2.42), compared to those who were not vaccinated, but had an infection.
    It is arguable that some of these cases could be as a consequence of the vaccine, but these were a small minority of the overall number of cases (63 vs several thousand). With this data, it is impossible to tell between cases where the vaccine was simply ineffective vs cases where the vaccine might have triggered flu-like symptoms, and the patient received a diagnosis for an infection and later a CFS diagnosis.

    Is there a claim among people on this forum that the squalene-adjuvant based H1N1 vaccination triggered their illness? Example trade name: Pandemrix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix

    The overall ME/CFS incidence rate is interesting and this is perhaps the most interesting part of this study. 2.08 per 100,000 person-months or 0.00025 person-years or 0.6% of the nation over 25 years. (this is an extrapolation and is not statistically valid).

    That is a great question.

    Unless influenza was the predomnant/most common trigger for this illness (study suggests the virus is a trigger for ~4% of cases), this study lacks the statistical power to demonstrate a reduction in risk. Side note: the hazard ratios were calculated using the Not infected/not vaccinated group as the baseline.

    Here is the data, I hope this makes things a little clearer:

     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
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  14. Forbin

    Forbin Senior Member

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    I may be doing this wrong, but, in a population of 319 million (US), I'm getting 6,635 new cases per month, or 79,622 per year in the US.

    319,000,000 / 100,000 * 2.08 *12 (months per year) = 79,622.

    [Of course, the reported incidence rate is for Norway, so it may not be identical for other locales.]
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
  15. Snow Leopard

    Snow Leopard Hibernating

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    Side note: These sorts of studies are why a nation-wide standardised electronic medical record reporting system is so important.
     
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  16. msf

    msf Senior Member

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    Thanks Snow Leopard, I was just about to ask how they they knew that the patients had the flu. Do you mean that there was some confirmatory testing for H1N1 for those who subsequently developed ME?

    http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/219557-differential

    I notice enteroviruses are mentioned. Hip will be happy! Also cytomeglovirus for those who think it was the herpes viruses what done it.
     
  17. msf

    msf Senior Member

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  18. Marco

    Marco Grrrrrrr!

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    So how does this two-fold plus increase in incidence post H1N1 stack up with a stochastic autoimmune mechanism. Perhaps the first reporting of symptoms associated with infection are the 'unmasking' of the pre-existing autoimmune process but any common infection should have the same effect? Unless H1N1 symptoms are particularly severe leading to increased or early reporting of ME/CFS onset?

    An alternative explanation consistent with an autoimmune etiology may involve transient BBB permeability during severe infection?
     
  19. Snow Leopard

    Snow Leopard Hibernating

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    What I said before might be a little confusing. To clarify, there were two sources of data on infection.

     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
  20. msf

    msf Senior Member

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    I don´t think the first category is sufficiently specific, and I would like to see the number of ME patients in each category.
     
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