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Dec 20th: High Noon for Ampligen! FDA Advisory Committee Decides Ampligens fate in live webcast

Discussion in 'General ME/CFS News' started by Cort, Dec 18, 2012.

  1. urbantravels

    urbantravels disjecta membra

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    Well, that's only a meaningful statement if you specify what KIND of CBT is being employed: CBT designed to help cope with the illness as it exists vs. CBT designed to convince you that you are not sick and that if you correct your "mistaken illness beliefs" you will recover.
  2. Firestormm

    Firestormm Guest

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    Probably not if it meant a new trial. The problem for Hemispherex was money. Mind you, the FDA relented in part and said they need not do a more full trial some time back. So if they ask for one now (presuming that the safety data requires it - that isn't clear of course), then maybe if the overall opinion of the committee is favourable - more money will be found from other parties?

    I'm not able to follow the continuing meeting, btw. All got too much and the sound and quality has broken up I understand from others here in the UK.

    Stock is down 10% now. If that reflects the state of the presentation then it can't be going very well.
  3. urbantravels

    urbantravels disjecta membra

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    With such a small stock very large swings in value can occur on just a few trades at the margin. I don't think the moment-to-moment ticker of the stock means very much. A 10% change in value could be the result of just ONE transaction.

    I believe the thought is that with any level of approval, even conditional approval, Hemispherx could begin to generate at least some revenue, become more attractive to investors, and could then afford to do further studies concurrently with actual sales of the drug.
    justinreilly, taniaaust1 and Sasha like this.
  4. snowathlete

    snowathlete

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    It does keep breaking up, and laging alot. Not sure how much more i can follow. Depends how long it goes on.
    it could really go either way I think.
  5. dannybex

    dannybex Senior Member

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    Didn't they ask for a new, larger and longer trial when it was rejected in December 2009?
  6. Sasha

    Sasha Fine, thank you

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    Thanks for these insights, urban - I don't know any of this financial stuff and it's good ot know that even conditional approval would have those effects in terms of future studies.
  7. dannybex

    dannybex Senior Member

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  8. Firestormm

    Firestormm Guest

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    Yeah but then they relented because - I think - they were keener to get something on the market.

    Re the trades. Whilst it is true that low volume can very much influence a stock like this - so can speculation. As can 'short selling' as can option trading. I would suggest that today's activity - the stock price is reflecting the trials and tribulations of the committee meeting. My volume is showing 11,719,247 shares having been traded today, so I don't think we can conclude that 'one or two' are moving the price. This is speculation at it's finest. Biotech stocks attract this sort of short-trading speculation. It's what they do. Money will be made today - you should be in no doubt about that and people will be watching/listening to the meeting and making 'bets' accordingly. The bigger the gyrations - the greater the potential profit. It matters little if Ampligen gets approval. People will make money regardless.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=heb

    -0.5% @ 0.377

    People will make money on the way down too. Either through outright sells or because they might be buying, having sold at a higher price. Indeed I would hazard a complete guess (haven't done this for 10 years now! It was kind of my career though not this speculative rubbish); that the falls are being generated by short selling. Selling in the hope of buying it back at an even lower price and pocketing the 'turn'. Only a guess.

    -2.26% @ 0.3711 Volume:11,863,251


    On it's way back up now. Like a yo-yo today :)
  9. BEG

    BEG Senior Member

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    Great testimony, Cort!
  10. urbantravels

    urbantravels disjecta membra

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    I did not say one or two SHARES would move the price within 20 minutes, but one or two TRANSACTIONS - not knowing the volume of shares per trade it is hard to say. With such a low share price it is easy for a single transaction to represent many shares.

    To recall the original point, people are betting up and down on Ampligen today for various reasons as part of different strategies, but the volatility today is not closely based on informed opinions how the hearing is going moment-by-moment.
  11. urbantravels

    urbantravels disjecta membra

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    The sound is blinking on and off so much it's making me absolutely NUTBUGS. I have a fast internet connection and a reasonably fast computer. Is this happening for others?
    Kati and Firestormm like this.
  12. Firestormm

    Firestormm Guest

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    I was not referring to you Urban. Sorry should have made that clearer. Quite right. We don't know the size of the trades. I could find out but I haven't gone onto those sites for some considerable time. Probably don't have access anymore. But you can see how the volume changes and thus have an idea of the size. Also if you watch the volume beneath the price changes - on the graph - and hover - you will have a better idea. All good fun and not necessarily indicative of what's happening at the meeting - as I said before.
  13. waiting

    waiting Senior Member

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    Yes, I've only listened to some of it, but I think the cutting out is worse than before. The transcriptions are pretty bad, too. I wonder if their recording is any better quality.
  14. Ninni

    Ninni

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    Yes, it´s the same for me. Really hard to follow.
  15. Sasha

    Sasha Fine, thank you

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    I was only able to listen to about five minutes before I couldn't stick it any more. Terrible, terrible quality. I thought it was my internet connection.
  16. snowathlete

    snowathlete

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    its become impossible for me to follow to because of all the cutting in and out.
    Kati likes this.
  17. lnester7

    lnester7 Seven

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    Is there a dried eye?? I am so emotional, all those old feelings are back, the hope, the fear of not having more hope, The sadness for my old life, the sadness for all my CFSrs Friends,

    Hearing all others suffering this hell. Gosh I think I will cry no matter the outcome.
    BEG, justinreilly, Kati and 2 others like this.
  18. urbantravels

    urbantravels disjecta membra

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    The transcription also seems to give out when the audio cuts out, which is doubly annoying.
  19. jimells

    jimells Senior Member

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    Fifteen years ago I had the dubious honor of being employed (as one of two lowly programmers, not a manager) by one of the first internet startups whose only goal was to have an IPO - Initial Public Offering of stock. The company was called 'Unimation'. The 'founders' had no interest in creating a revenue-generating product or service. The whole point was to sell their stock to fools with more money than sense.

    The enterprise collapsed when my manager blew the whistle. Much of the original investment went up 'the founders' noses, and they left town in the middle of the night - literally.

    All this talk about Hemispherx stock price reminds me of that sorry episode. Unless drug approval spurs the sale of more stock (thus diluting the value of current owners' stock), the stock price is mostly irrelevant to the company's operations. In other words, higher stock price doesn't give the company more cash to spend on research or production. A higher stock price would give current shareholders a chance to bail at a profit, but it won't help us.

    Like Firestormm wrote, as long as the stock price changes, *someone* will benefit, but it won't be patients.
    Marco and Firestormm like this.
  20. Marco

    Marco Old blackguard

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    Does remind me of frequent comments on Bloomsberg that the markets don't like uncertainty?

    Surely if it wasn't for stock value fluctuations due to 'uncertainty' there wouldn't be any trading and hence no opportunity to make profits?

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